Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty

1. Post Carbon Cities:Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty Daniel LerchPost Carbon Cities Program Manager www.postcarboncities.net 26 June 2008 :: NJTPA, Newark, NJ

2. Post Carbon Cities guidebook The first major guidebook for local gov’t on peak oil and global warming. • Discusses: • WHAT ‘peak oil’ is, and how the real problem is ‘energy uncertainty’; • WHY local governments in should take action on it right away; • HOW early-actor cities in the US and Canada have already responded; • Recommendations for what local governments should do. 113 pages, $30.00 2nd printing May 2008 www.postcarboncities.net

3. President pleads with OPEC to increase oil production Ongoing economic recession $135 oil / $4 gas / $5 diesel Food riots in Global South Things are changing,and quickly. Housing market ‘crisis’ Airlines going out of business Pressure to open coasts and ANWR for drilling Fuel shortages in Global South

4. Release of toxic materials Biodiversity loss Energy Crisis (Peak Oil: Peaking and decline of fossil fuel oil production) Climate Crisis (Global Warming: Human-induced rise in average global temperature) Unbridled burning of fossil fuelsin the modern industrial era. Overpopulation Anthropocentric worldviews

5. What’s happening? Demand is RISING... ...but Supply is LEVELLING, and will soon fall. • Developing world is rapidly industrializing (China, India)‏ • Western world demand growth • The “easy oil” is gone • Logistical (financial) limits to what can ultimately be produced The fundamental factors of oil supply and demand are changing.

6. What’s happening? The old assumptions no longer fit... * June 16, 2008: $139.89/barrel * Jan. 2, 2008: $100/barrel 2008 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Overview 2006, p.64

7. What’s happening? ...which means we can no longer rely on the usual ‘experts'... http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/07/news/economy/cheap_oil/index.htm

8. What’s happening? www.chron.com/CDA/archives/archive.mpl?id=2007_4465038 ...but fortunately, more and more leaders do see the problems ahead... “[T]here is growing concern that the supply of oil may soon peak as consumption continues to grow, known supplies run out and new reserves become harder to find.“ - 21 June 2008 issue of The Economist “There is no doubt demand for oil is outpacing supply at a rapid pace, and has been for some time now,” [GM Chairman Rick] Wagoner said. - 15 January 2008, “Time's up for petrol cars, says GM chief," Sydney Morning Herald

9. What’s happening? A Very Brief Summary of the Peak Oil Problem... 1. The era of easy oil is over. (-Chevron) 2. The difficult oil won’t fill the gap. 3. What’s left isn’t all ours to buy.

10. What’s happening? Source: Colin Campbell, Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas 1. The “easy oil” has peaked. Discoveries peaked in the 1960s, production is plateauing now.

11. What’s happening? 2. The “difficult oil” can’t make up the difference. Supply and 'Business-As-Usual Demand' Gap History and Projection of World Oil (and Gas Liquids) Production, 2004 Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil Conventional Oil Campbell, C. 2004.

12. What’s happening? 3. The remaining oil isn’t all ours to buy. http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL139687720080413 (cc) Proggie/Flickr

13. What’s the problem? Declining Supply + Rising Demand= Higher Oil Prices + Oil Price & Supply Volatility What does this mean for decision-makers?:

14. What’s the problem? What does this mean for decision-makers?: From Hirsch, Robert. et al. “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.” Report for U.S. Department of Energy, February 2005: • “Timely, aggressive mitigation initiativesaddressing both the supply and demand sides...” • “Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort...” • “Intervention by governmentswill be required, because the economic and social implications...would otherwise be chaotic.”

15. What’s the problem? Why is this a problem at the local level? 1. Over-dependence on oil 2. Price volatility of goods 3. Potential for shortages / emergencies 4. Long-term economic shifts

16. Why is this a problem for cities? 1. Over-dependence on oil • Oil is an essential input: We are dependent on oil as a raw material. “Oil makes it possible to transport food to the ...megacities of the world. “Oil also provides the plastics and chemicals that are the bricks and mortar of contemporary civilization...” –Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. 1991. • Oil is an assumed input: Systems assume stability in oil supplies and prices. • Oil is a non-interchangeable input(in the short and medium term):Alternatives to oil are still marginal.

17. Why is this a problem for cities? 2. Price volatility of goods • Unexpected price changes in oil products(gasoline, asphalt)‏

18. Why is this a problem for cities? …higher fuel prices and energy costs; higher transportation costs… 2. Price volatility of goods • Unexpected price changes in oil products(gasoline, asphalt)‏ • Unexpected price changes in other products(push for ethanol = higher meat prices)‏

19. Why is this a problem for cities? 3. Potential for shortages and emergencies

20. Why is this a problem for cities? 3. Potential for shortages and emergencies

21. Why is this a problem for cities? 4. Long-term economic shifts • How will the global economy adjust? (global trade flows) • How will this impact regional and local economies? (relative advantage; provisioning systems)

22. Why is this a problem for cities? “Energy Uncertainty” How can cities... • set meaningful budgets • make long-range land use and transportation plans • serve residents and the local business community ...with such uncertainty surrounding the most important material to our global, regional and local economies?

23. What are cities already doing?

24. Portland Peak Oil Task Force

25. Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

26. Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

27. Post Carbon Cities guidebook recommendations 1. Deal with transportation and land use (or you may as well stop now).

28. Post Carbon Cities guidebook

29. $30.00 USDQuantity discounts available Post Carbon Cities book and program Daniel Lerch, Program Manager www.postcarboncities.net daniel@postcarbon.org