James Newell - MERA

1. James Newell - MERA Scoping - Interactions between Migration Patterns, Local Employment and Labour Markets in New Zealand MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

2. Seminar Outline • Presentation (40mins) • Concepts / Background • Historical Data • Research Questions • Quick Questionnaire (10mins) • Round Robin Commentary (20 mins) • Discussion (20 ins) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

3. Presentation Plan • Migration Mobility Concepts • Labour Market Concepts • Labour Market - Migration Interactions • Broad Topics • Knowledge Base Considerations • Research Issues Outline MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

4. What is Migration / Mobility • Migration is a special case of the mobility of people, families and / or households • Refers to the permanent or long term movement of place of permanent residence • Migration events (eg. International Arrival / Departure registrations) • Migration transitions (population census - changes in permanent residence between successive census periods) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

5. Motivation for Migration - Lifecycle stage / activity transitions • Finishing School • Education and Training • Household formation - relationships - having children • Seeking or Changing jobs • Housing tenure • Retirement etc. MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

6. Sources of Statistical Data • NZ Census of Population and Dwellings • residential address 5 years ago • years at current address • years in New Zealand • place of birth • NZ International Arrival and Departure Survey • Other specialised partial surveys (eg Longitudinal Survey of International Migrants) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

7. Defining the Labour Market • Theoretical Concept with spatial and other dimensions • Spatial - Geographical accessibility • Commuting locus in the short term • Migration locus in the long term • Job / occupational attributes • Skill / education or other requirements • Employee / person attributes • Skill / education or other characteristics MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

8. Local Labour Market Areas • As defined by administrative or other boundaries? • As experienced by people and/or firms? • Making inferences from higher to lower levels of spatial analysis is the individualistic fallacy of spatial geography • Selection of spatial units has consequences • Conclusions reached on national or regional data can’t be inferred for spatial areas within them MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

9. Mapping Functional Labour Market Areas (Main - Secondary) • Defined in terms of • Geographical accessibility (commuting - short term / migration - long term) • Skill / education or other barriers to participation • Skill / education or other characteristics of potential employees • Travel accessibility between residential and workplace locations • Cost • Time • Convenience • Differences between occupations - industries, demographic and-or socio-economic groups MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

10. Local Labour Market - Migration Interactions • Employment related migration to or from different areas • Migration effects on local economies and labour markets (positive and negative) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

11. Explaining Regional Labour Market Characteristics (Morrison 1999) • Strong labour markets have high • reverse unemployment rates • wage rates • full-time employment rates • Labour market adjustment through migration • low where hidden unemployment is high • high where education and skill levels high MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

12. Explanatory Models for Regional Labour Market Characteristics (Morrison 1999) • Poses a relationship of the form • I is a labour market indicator in the ithregion measured at the jthpoint in time. • OI is one of the other labour indicators (in this case, the set includes. "reverse unemployment" rate, labour force participation rate, wage income, full-time work rate) • HC a vector of human capital attributes of the labour market area (eg. formal education, age of workforce, on the job training, job experience) • R is a vector of regional attributes (such as industrial structure) • P is a set of region specific policy or programme interventions where they are relevant • T is a time dummy where cross-sections for different periods are pooled. MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

13. Migration - Labour Market Effects Expected • Out migration rates will increase in response to reduction in local employment • In migration rates will increase in response to increases in local employment • Employment will increase or decrease in response to changes in the migration rate for selected population groups (eg retirees) • Different responses for different demographic groups on the basis of their labour market behaviour • Different responses for different localities on the basis of the nature of the local labour market MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

14. Evidence for Out Migration as a Labour Market Adjustment Mechanism (Newell 2000) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

15. Evidence for Internal Out Migration as a Labour Market Adjustment Mechanism (Newell 2000) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

16. Evidence for International Out Migration as a Labour Market Adjustment Mechanism (Newell 2000) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

17. Broad Issues • What are NZ’s Functional Labour Market Areas? • Labour market effects on migration (eg. lbr mkt adjmt) • Migration effects on local economies / labour markets • Occupational and skill groups - monitoring and modelling recruitment, retention, demand and supply over time (effect of migration flows on labour supply) • Difference between Maori, Pacific Island, and total labour market - migration interactions and implications for policy and programmes • Migration patterns of beneficiaries • Characterising Community level labour market - migration interactions MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

18. Stages of Knowledge Base Development • Exploratory analysis of available data (limitations of that data) • Development of appropriate system design concepts • Design and commissioning of selected customised series • Analysis of customised series • Design and evolution of datalab based “expert systems” • Integration of datalab based “expert systems” into policy and programme assessment and development MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

19. Issues - Knowledge Base Standards 1. Establish Standards for Comparability between LMPG and other sub-national knowledge bases and improve application of technology • Why? • make connections / make linkages / think across portfolios • have comparable / compatible systems indicators at sub-national level • develop shareable applications of in-house departmental operational databases • What? • Spatial units • Demographic • Standardise other attributes (e.g. Labour / Employment) • Data formats & Technologies (eg. GIS software used?) MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

20. Issues 2. Identify Functional Labour Market Areas • Why? • A pre-requisite to proper study of labour market - migration interactions • Regional data can’t be extrapolated to local level (individualistic fallacy) • Useful in understanding local development • How? • Short term - indicative boundaries - quick interim classification • More detailed longer term study of functional labour markets boundaries and their finer characteristics MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

21. Issues 3. Improve the knowledge base on NZ sub-national labour markets • Current Resources • Selected Aggregate AU, TLA and Regional data (Census 1986-96) • Regional HHLFS, QES, Unemployment Register (quarterly, annual 198?-2000) • Gaps • Detailed • A pre-requisite to proper study of labour market - migration interactions • Useful in understanding local development MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

22. Issues 4. Improving the Knowledge Base on Internal and External Migration History / Behaviour • Current Knowledge • Aggregate Initial Model by Region for 1986-91 and 1991-96 (Census) • National Picture by Quarter (International Arrival / Departure Survey) • Gaps • Extension to Ethnic Groups and Sub-regional areas (TLAs, Lbr Mkt Areas etc.) • Comparable data for External Regions (espec. Australia) • Better Age Breakdowns, Better estimates of Int Outmigrants, Extension to 1981-86 MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

23. Issues 5. Role of Migration in Labour Market Adjustment • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level with off the shelf aggregate data • Analysis of more refined data to test hypothesis on the influence of different factors on interactive response • Demographic groups (age, gender, ethnicity) • Labour force status • Industries / Occupations / Educational Level • Spatial levels • Implications for policy and programme development MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

24. Issues 6. Other Effects of Migration in Local Employment / Labour Markets • Exploratory Analysis at Regional Level with off the shelf aggregate data • Analysis of more refined data to test hypothesis on the influence of different factors on interactive response • Demographic groups (age, gender, ethnicity) • Labour force status • Industries / Occupations / Educational Level • Spatial levels • Implications for policy and programme development MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

25. Issues 8. Understanding effect of migration on changes in the labour market by occupation • Life cycles (flows from recruitment through education and training by cohort) • Migration Losses and Recruitment • Changing Demand and Supply for occupations by industry • Human capital model MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

26. Issues 9. Gaps Issues : Labour Force - Migration Interactions for Maori, Pacific Island vs others • Evidence for differences between Maori and Total migration - labour market interactions at local level (Morrison, 1999) • Explanatory power of various factors • Educational status • Occupations / industry concentrations • Local community characteristics (eg non-cash / informal economy) • Implications for Policies and Programmes MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

27. Issues 10. Relationship Between Benefit System, Labour Markets and Migration • Evidence that beneficiaries concentrate in certain areas • Extent to which this is migration driven? • Might be seen as pareto-optimal solution • Implications - eg. Effect on ability to participate in the formal and informal labour market, seasonal / part time / full time work - implications for families MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz

28. Issues 11. Characterising Labour market - migration interactions for spatial communities • Meaning of community? • Spatial • Functional (eg churches for Pacific Island) • How to define spatial communities? • School catchment areas • History • Economic relationships (industries, travel to work patterns • Finer analysis of migration - labour markets in functional lbr mkt context MERA Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd www.mera.co.nz