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Session 3 Presentation of the Tool

Session 3 Presentation of the Tool. By the end of the session. Participants will Become familiar with the purpose and components of the tool for developing local and national size estimates. Why is this tool needed?.

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Session 3 Presentation of the Tool

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  1. Session 3Presentation of the Tool

  2. By the end of the session Participants will • Become familiar with the purpose and components of the tool for developing local and national size estimates

  3. Why is this tool needed? • Availability of guidelines on methods have not led to the availability of useful estimates as much as hoped • Population size estimation is often done in response to hasty demands • Tool is needed to help countries plan for PSE in a way that • Is integrated with other SI activities for KPs • Address multiple purposes of PSE • Be done in a way that is resource efficient

  4. Parts of the tool • Part I - Framework for planning PSE activities • Part II - Step by step guidance on planning and implementation of population size estimation activities

  5. Part II - Framework for developing local and national size estimates Advocacy Resource Mobilization Estimates and Projections Geographic Prioritization National Target Setting Local Program Planning and Target Setting Purpose of Estimate Crude National Estimate Crude Local Estimates in all Areas Precise Local Estimates where Programs Exist/are Planned Type of Estimate Needed Rapid Size Estimates in all Locations (e.g. Consensus, Delphi) Data to Develop Strata for Extrapolation Direct Local Estimates Using Established Methods where Programs Exist/are Planned Which Data To Collect Direct Population Size Estimates in Selected Local Areas

  6. Definition of crude vs precise • A crude estimate is one that may have a wide margin of error, but which is considered to be “accurate enough” for the purpose at hand • A precise estimate is one with a narrower margin of error, required for the type of decisions that will be based on that number.

  7. Precise vs. extrapolated estimates • Another attribute of “precise” estimates, is that are based on actual local data, and not the result of extrapolation. • This makes them “direct”, and therefore presumably more accurate, because they are based on empirical data • Extrapolated values, on the other hand, are accurate only to the degree that the assumptions upon which they are based hold true.

  8. Part II – Planning Process for developing local and national estimates Part I: Planning and conducting the Initial Assessment Part II. Conducting direct size estimation data collection Part III: Building local size estimates Part IV: Building national size estimates The steps involved in conducting each of these parts (isee chart on next slide), will be examined in detail throughout the week.

  9. Initial Assessment Plan Initial Assessment Review country context and population size estimation activities that have been done in the past Decide for which populations size estimates are needed Define units to use as geographic zones for size estimation Develop criteria based on data that are available (or can be rapidly gathered) for each zone to develop strata Conduct Initial Assessment Compile data on criteria Use criteria to group zones into strata Prioritize and select zones within each strata for direct size estimation data collection (taking program needs, national level extrapolation needs, and available resources into account) Decide on method for direct size estimation in each selected zone (keeping in mind the adjustments that will be needed after data are collected) Conduct Direct Size Estimation Data Collection Activities Build Local Size Estimates Apply triangulation techniques to develop local size estimates based on direct data collection and other available information Build National Size Estimate Use extrapolation algorithms to use locally agreed upon estimates (after having done triangulation) to extrapolate within each strata and then for the national level estimates

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