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2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook

2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook. Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa Feb. 7, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. Cattle Crush Margin. The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.

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2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook

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  1. 2013 Agricultural Commodity Outlook Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa Feb. 7, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  3. PERCENT CHANGE DECEMBER 1 HAY STOCKS(2012-2011)

  4. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  5. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  6. U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds

  7. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. Prices

  10. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  11. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2012 Yield Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: Bushels/acre

  12. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  13. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  14. World Weather Source: USDC and USDA

  15. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  16. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  17. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  18. Ethanol Stocks

  19. Fuel Prices

  20. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  21. Current Corn Futures 6.78 5.57 5.37 Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013

  22. Current Soybean Futures 14.18 12.82 12.44 Source: CME Group, 2/5/2013

  23. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  24. Acreage Shift by Crop Acreage change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  25. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  26. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing • Risk management • Crop insurance • Price protection

  27. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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