The State Climatologist Program and a National Climate Services Initiative

1. The State Climatologist Program and a National Climate Services Initiative Mark A. Shafer Oklahoma Climatological Survey University of Oklahoma

2. State Climatologist Program • Created by Weather Bureau in 1954 • Devolved to states in 1973 • National Climate Program Act of 1978 created Regional Climate Centers • AASC formed ~1978; provides common voice and shared experiences • ARSCO provides formal framework between states, RCCs NCDC, others

3. SCO limitations • Inadequate state funding • Typically small, often volunteer or part-time State Climatologist with few support staff • Most respond to requests rather than seek out those in need • Demand outpaces ability to respond • State offices need help!

4. Oklahoma Climate Survey • Formed in 1978; enacted into state law in 1982 • In 1990, 5-full-time employees with a budget of ~$250K • OK Mesonet established 1991; operational 1994 • Now has 37 full-time employees, 15 part-time employees with a budget of $3M per year – mostly state funded

5. Oklahoma Climate Survey • Climate Services – typical of others • Data archives, web pages, reports, request • Oklahoma Mesonet • Real-time 115-station state network • Outreach • Schools, emergency management, utilities • Drought Monitoring • Daily updates, soil moisture

6. The National Agenda • Congressional Natural Hazards Caucus • Global Climate Change review • Outcome-Oriented Evaluation • President’s Management Agenda: “objective investment criteria for federal R&D programs” • “New Federalism” • Separate polities, distributed power • Arenas and roles – “sorting out”

7. Office of Vulnerability and Resiliency Research “Without greater resiliency to droughts, tornadoes, floods, and other natural disasters, some of our towns may not last 100 more years … I challenge some of our best scientists to turn their attention to shorter-term climate and weather variations.” - Rep. J.C. Watts

8. Climate Services Questions • What is needed to close the gap between production of knowledge and its utilization? • What are appropriate roles for each participant? • What timeline do we need to implement these policies? • How much funding will it take to ‘do the job the right way’?

9. Climate Services Initiatives • NRC Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Climate Services Vision (2000) • NOAA Climate Observations and Services Program (2001) • U.S. Senate National Climate Services proposal (2002)

10. BASC Climate Services Vision “Climate services are made up of a mixture of elements or components without effective national integration. NOAA has been unsuccessful in its attempts to link the activities of NCDC, the RCCs, and the state climatologists.”

11. BASC Climate Services Vision Five Major Guiding Principles • Activities and elements should be user-centric • Climate service function must be supported by active research • Advanced information on a variety of space and time scale, in the context of historical experience, is required • Knowledge base requires active stewardship • Requires active and well-defined participation by government, business, and academe

12. BASC Climate Services Vision Not a formal organizational structure; review of current climate services and potential evolution. Recommendations • Promote more effective use of the nation’s weather and climate observation systems. • Improve the capability to serve the climate information needs of the nation. • Interdisciplinary studies and capabilities are needed to address societal needs.

13. NOAA Climate Observations and Services Program Key components: • Attention to observations • Research, modeling, diagnostics • Products and services • Builds upon present capabilities and experience • Constructive mix of research entities • Management and scientific advice via program board (priorities), program office (implementation), and science advisory board (evaluation)

14. NOAA Climate Observations and Services Program “Climate applications require that institutional arrangements be analyzed for their capacity to use climate information, that information use be evaluated for its effectiveness, and that a trust-building dialogue among the research, operational, and decision-making communities be developed so that uncertainties are recognized and risks addressed.”

15. National Climate Services Key components: • National center for climate monitoring and predictions • Climate observing system • Coordinated modeling strategy • Regional and local models / assessment • Assess impacts of predicted change • Stewardship of and access to data • Coordination among federal, state, local government and academia

16. Common Components • User-centric / utilization-focused • Integrated stakeholders • Government (federal, state, local) • Academia • Private sector • Goal-oriented research and analysis • Data acquisition and quality • Improved modeling capabilities • New products and services

17. Issues for SCOs • Must make decision-makers in all arenas aware of what we do and how we can contribute • Infrastructure of state offices must be upgraded • 1:1 federal matching block grants? • Dialog on products and services • ARSCO mechanism • Our history need not confine us!

18. Conclusions • Policy window is opening; must be ready to act • States have local knowledge which is critical to success of initiatives • Federal agencies have resources – data, models, predictions – that need to be effectively incorporated into local decision-making • Partnerships make sense