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Convective Forecast Verification Operational Impact Assessment

Convective Forecast Verification Operational Impact Assessment. Jennifer Mahoney, Mike Kay, Sean Madine, Joan Hart Forecast Systems Laboratory Barbara Brown National Center for Atmospheric Research. 9-30-04. Background.

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Convective Forecast Verification Operational Impact Assessment

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  1. Convective Forecast VerificationOperational Impact Assessment Jennifer Mahoney, Mike Kay, Sean Madine, Joan Hart Forecast Systems Laboratory Barbara Brown National Center for Atmospheric Research 9-30-04

  2. Background Verification techniques are strongly tied to the product definitionand intended useof a forecast. Therefore, the verification problem becomes very difficult when the forecast is not clearly defined. Goals: • Clarify the product definition and intended use of Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP). • Demonstrate techniques for evaluating the operational impact of CCFP.

  3. Verification of CCFP • Product Definition (Meteorological) – A region spanning at least 3,000 sq. miles and containing at a minimum, echoes of at least 40 dbZ composite reflectivity, covering at least 25% of the CCFP region, with tops at least 25,000 ft. • Use – CCFP is a strategic tool used for developing a plan or framework for managing the impact of convective weather on the air traffic flow system (e.g., Baseball). • Operational impact – CCFP region contains the convection as well as a measure of the possible impact of the convection on the flow of air traffic.

  4. Convective Constrained Area (CCA) Raw Observations 30 June 2004 CCA-10 CCA-20

  5. Operational Impact Coverage Field • Flight handbook rules • Raw observations • CCFP product • definition • Operational Impact • Coverage Field - • Guidance for a CCFP 30 June 2004

  6. Future Work • Regionalize the operational impact coverage field by region, sector, and time of day. • Incorporate echo top information into the convective constrained area. • Evaluate flight track data to quantify the impact of convection on the flow of air traffic.

  7. Conclusions • CCFP should only be used as a tool for establishing a plan for managing the flow of air traffic. • Verification methods can be developed for CCFP that incorporate the operational impact of convective weather on the flow of air traffic. • There is no right answer. There are many ways to evaluate a forecast. All methods tell you something about the quality and usefulness of the forecast.

  8. Acknowledgments Thanks to • Tom Fahey • Fred Johnson • Jack May • Dave Rodenhuis for numerous discussions and valuable in site.

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