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Incorporating climate change into restoration planning. Tim Beechie NOAA Fisheries, Seattle. The ESA salmon context. ESA legal context Salmon recovery planning and climate change Consultations and climate change NOAA science efforts address: Vulnerability of populations
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Incorporating climate change intorestoration planning Tim Beechie NOAA Fisheries, Seattle
The ESA salmon context • ESA legal context • Salmon recovery planning and climate change • Consultations and climate change • NOAA science efforts address: • Vulnerability of populations • How do we adapt restoration plans and actions to be successful despite climate change?
Adaptation: decision support framework • Q1: What habitats limit salmon recovery? • Q2: Does climate change alter habitats limiting recovery? • Q3: Does the restoration plan reduce climate change effects? • Q4: Does the restoration plan increase habitat diversity and salmon resilience?
Landscape processes Humans Watershed assessment • How have habitats changed and altered biota? Habitat conditions Salmon
Landscape processes Humans Watershed assessment • What are the root causes of habitat change? • How have habitats changed and altered biota? Habitat conditions Salmon
The restoration plan • A restoration plan should: • Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines • Generate a list of needed restoration actions • Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population Beechie et al. 2013
The restoration plan • A restoration plan should: • Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines • Generate a list of needed restoration actions • Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population Beechie et al. 2013
Landscape processes Climate change Climate change assessment • How does climate change affect all of this? • How have habitats changed and altered biota? Habitat conditions Salmon
Summer rearing sensitivity <10°C Below threshold 10-14°C 14-18°C Near threshold 18-22°C 22-26°C Above threshold 26-30°C >30°C
Ameliorating climate change effects • Literature review to see if restoration actions can: • Reduce a peak flow effect? • Reduce a low flow effect? • Reduce a stream temperature effect? Beechie et al. 2012
Increasing resilience • Literature review to see if restoration actions can: • Increase habitat and species diversity so the ecosystem can better withstand climate change effects? Beechie et al. 2012
Increase habitat diversity Waples et al. 2009
Closing points • Q1: Identifying the most important restoration actions is critical for cost-effective restoration • Q2: Climate change may alter the importance of key restoration actions • Q3: Many restoration actions can reduce climate change effects on stream flow or temperature • Q4: More connectivity and more dynamics are important for ecosystem resilience to climate change