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Strategic Plan for HEPEX

Strategic Plan for HEPEX. John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta February 2, 2006. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX).

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Strategic Plan for HEPEX

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  1. Strategic Plan for HEPEX John Schaake, Eric Wood and Roberto Buizza AMS Annual Meeting Atlanta February 2, 2006

  2. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) HEPEX aims todemonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence to make decisionsfor emergency management, water resources management and the environment

  3. HEPEX Basic Building Blocks All 3 blocks are emerging Major work needed Must be done in an integrated way Weather/Climate Ensemble Prediction System Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System User Applications

  4. Weather and Climate Forecasts Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Observations Products, Services, Applications

  5. Elements of a Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System Weather and Climate Forecasts Single-value and ensemble forecasts Atmospheric Ensemble Pre-Processor Reliable hydrologic inputs Land Data Assimilator Hydrologic Ensemble Processor Hydrologic Models Obs Ensemble forecasts Ensemble initial conditions Product Generator Reliable hydrologic products Products and Services

  6. Initial Workshop • ECMWF - March 8-10, 2004 • 80 Participants • 16 Countries • Users [NY Power, BC Hydro, Quebec Hydro, EDF (France), Mekorot (Israel), WMIG (Canada), CddHoward (Canada), SMHI (Sweden), BGF (Germany), …] • Meteorologists • Hydrologists

  7. Three Basic Elements of HEPEX • Testbed Projects • Supporting Data Sets • Components of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)

  8. Future Activities • HESS: HEPEX Special Issue • HEPEX Strategic Implementation Plan (Eric Wood) • BAMS Article (Tom Hammil) • Testbed Workshops / Deliverables • Data Set Access / Management (JCS) • Hydrovision “track” (Chuck Howard) • Workshop #3 – Ispra, Italy – Summer 2007

  9. Thank You HEPEX WorkshopBoulder – July 19-22, 2005

  10. HEPEX Testbed Projects • Canada – Great Lakes • Europe • EU-JRC Ispra, Pan-European Flood, Po River • Brazil • U.S. • SE U.S. • Western U.S. • Bangladesh • PreProcessing / Statistical Downscaling • Hydrologic Uncertainty / Data Assimilation Return

  11. Supporting Data Sets(Under Construction) • GFS Fixed Ensemble (1979 – present) • Temperature and Precipitation • Selected Regions • Precipitation and Temperature Analyses • Selected Regions • Multi-scale • Hydrological Basins • Forcing • Basin characteristics • Streamflow • Snow, soil moisture, satellite, etc • TIGGE Ensembles • CPC Products (for US) • Other? (e.g. ECMWF, CMS, etc.) Return

  12. Algorithm Services Control Services Data Services Security Services Display Services Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells) Federal agencies State, regional, and local cooperators Universities Private sector International organizations Near-Surface Deep Soil Moisture Runoff Snow Water Equivalent Precipitation Evapotranspiration Vector Information (River Segments) River Stage & Flow Surface Water Storage Water Supply Availability Flood Potential Water Quality Return

  13. Rio Grande - Brazil • Apply • CPTEC climate ensemble forecasts • RAMS regional climate model • Users • ANEEL • ONS • Milestone – March 2006 • AGU Chapman Conference @ Porto Alegre, 2006? Return

  14. Southeast US • Application of meteorological forcing • Include hydrologic uncertainties in hydrologic ensembles • Application of climate information as input to predict extreme events • Validation for extreme hydrological events Return

  15. Western US and British Columbia • Prediction for 2wks to 1 year • Importance of Hydrological Model Calibration • Data assimilation of snow • Climate forecast application strategy • Strategies for unbiasing hydrologic ensemble forecasts Return

  16. Statistical Downscaling • Initial focus on application of fixed version GFS Ensemble forecasts • Links to other testbeds • Strategies to produce ensemble forcing for ESP? • Verification? Return

  17. Return

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