Kontribusi IPTEK bagi Pembangunan Daya Saing di Indonesia

1. Kontribusi IPTEK bagi Pembangunan Daya Saing di Indonesia Disampaikan pada Diskusi Terbatas “ Peningkatan Kapasitas Program Riset Untuk mendukung Daya Saing” Menristek, 09 Juni 2009 TriarkoNurlambang PusatPenelitianGeografiTerapan - FMIPA UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA

2. NEGARA-NEGARA LAIN SUDAH BERGERAK CEPAT; INDONESIA DIMANA?................

3. Looking back at tomorrow(Learning from the Future) Strategy Scenario Application fields Spheres of lives Trends Human Needs Health • General society • Society • Politics • Economy • Environment • Customers • Competition Leisure Today’s business control Core Processes Education • Technology • Semi-conductors • Biotechnology • Disruptive Environment Military Georg Berner SIEMENS Today short-term mid-term Long-term Future The way we look at things 2004

4. Munculnya pola kehidupan yang baru Manajemen kesehatan Jasa perbaikan Jasa dokter kesehatan Waktu luang dan hiburan Dunia Maya/ virtual Model baru sekolah Pelatihan individual Pelatihan profesional • KEHIDUPAN BARU • Faktor pendorong masa depan: keamanan & kepercayaan, penghematan biaya-waktu, bertambahnya kenyamanan, dan perbaikan kualitas hidup • Faktor penghambat: kompleksitas, tiadanya standard dan layanan buruk • Faktor pengubah: teknologi Pembelajaran Monitoring Lingkungan hidup Rancang produk Eksplorasi Proses material Recyclability Lingkungan dan perang Proteksi lingkungan Aplikasi Prosesi informasi Pelatihan Pakaian seragam Militer Fungsi konsep strategi Portal sbg gerbang dunia E-customer bonding E-business di industri Pengganti lokasi pasar Cara baru menjalankan bisnis Bisnis elektronik Georg Berner SIEMENS Real Time Business Internet dalam peralatan mobil MMS Pembayaran elektronik Permintaan pelanggan Mobile business 2004

5. Bioteknologi: ladang masa depan Mesin/komponen Kesehatan Manusia-mesin Diagnostik Healing Gaya hidup (kosmetik, peremajaan) Biokomputer Androids (humanoid robots) Cyborgs (manusia dengan teknologi implan) Biorobots Peralatan Teknologi sensor (RFID) Pembelajaran Komunikasi Pengembangan kemampuan indra Pengembangan kemampuan daya pikir Bioteknologi Lingkungan Produksi Energi Material/kimiawi Bahan dasar/ bahan subtitusi Recyclability Obat-obatan (medikasi, implan, penggantian organ) Pemurnian Recycling Environmental compatibity Sustainability Pemulihan kerusakan Pangan Hidrogen, metanol Energi fosil Cahaya Tumbuhan Ternak Georg Berner SIEMENS 2004

6. Kondratieff Cycle TODAY 1st wave 2nd wave 3rd wave 4th wave 5th wave Stream engine Railroads steel Electricity chemistry Automobiles Electronics Information ? 1793 1847 1893 1930 1989 2040 Global network Internet, computer information and communication network Knowledge and protocol networks telematics Driving Application Electronic mobile and real-time business services, edutainment, healthy work, commence environment Driving technology Broadband transmission and personal mobile application

7. Penetrasi pasar di Amerika Serikat oleh Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi Angka dalam kurung adalah waktu yang diperlukan untuk mencapai 50 juta pelanggan dalam juta pelanggan di AS 120 100 80 TV set (15 thn) Internet (5 thn) Internet Nirkabel (2 thn) 60 40 Radio (40 thn) TV kabel (10 thn) Komputer (13 thn) Telepon (90 thn) 20 0 HP (11 thn) 1922 1950 1980 1995

8. Apa saja faktor utama penggerak perubahan masa depan? • Pertumbuhan penduduk secara eksponensial • Speed of innovation (accelerating)  tren teknologi dan (ICT, robotic/nano), ilmu pengetahuan dasar (biologi/bio-tech, fisika-materi, kimia) •  Batas industri dan penelitian-pengembangan (R & D) menjadi tambah kabur Georg Berner SIEMENS 2004

9. Beberapa contoh hasil prediksi masa depan Berdasarkan studi J.R. Mooneyham 2006 Wireless LAN 2008 Nanocomputer elements 2010 Optical cards menggantikan floppy disk 2015 Mendengarkan musik 6 hari dalam satu chip 2035 Super-jumbo jets membawa 1500 penumpang 2038 NASA mengirim orang pertama ke Mars 2050 Bertamasya ke luar angkasa 2058 Implan otak buatan meningkatkan kemampuan intelijen 2064 Otak buatan terkoneksi dengan komputer 2073 Kota bawah tanah terbangun 2087 Ekosistem di re-boot 2088 Muncul banyak spesies baru 2150 Bermunculan non-biologis yang bisa berpikir 2300 Ada kuda diangkasa 2450 Ditemukan the “United State of Earth” 2500 Pemukiman baru di Mars • Siklus Kondratieff yang menjelaskan siklus 60 tahunan atas dasar adanya perubahan radikal dalam teknologi sehingga menciptakan satu bentuk kehidupan baru • Tren ketenagakerjaan (dikembangkan oleh Leo A. Nefiodow) dimana sektor pertanian akan mengalami kemunduran dan sektor jasa menjadi semakin utama • Tren teknologi yang dikembangkan oleh Gartner (Hype Cycle) dan Moore (Moore’s Lawn  perkembang microelectronics; dunia menjadi terkonvergensi dan siklus perubahan semakin pendek

10. Reliability Humaneness Medical Science Biotechnology Network Components Bandwidth DNA Building Blocks of the 21st Century Robotics Software Communication Sustainability Atoms Bits Materials Nanotechnology Computing Information Security Safety Building Block of the 21st Century

11. People – Situation – Innovation - Productivity Freedom and security People Team Commitment and hard work Responsibility for self and others Environment and nature Implementation of own vision Training and further training Taxes and charges Leadership and coaching Prosperity and further development Situation Laws and regulation Effectiveness and efficiency Productivity Resources and stability Processes and their contents Location and infrastructure Infrastructure and external network Technology and products Applications and services Research and development Creativity and performance Innovation

12. BAGAIMANA MENGEJAR KETERTINGGALAN? BAGAIMANA ARAH DAN STRATEGI NYA? …………

13. Indonesia

14. The IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2008

15. The New Focus on "Knowledge" as a Competitive Resource Knowledge creation Continuous innovation Competitive advantage

16. P E R M I N T A A N P A S A R DAYA SAING OTAK ORGANISASI YANG CERDAS INOVASI ORGANISASI YANG INOVATIF ORGANISASI YANG FLEKSIBEL PILIHAN FLEXIBLE COMPANY KUALITAS ORGANISASI YANG BERKUALITAS QUALITY COMPANY ORGANISASI YANG EFISIEN EFFICIENT COMPANY BIAYA 2000 - an 90-an 60-an 70-an 80-an TAHUN Dasar Kompetisi

17. The Technology Roadmapping Phases • In most cases, strategies attempt to achieve these goals either by mobilizing the necessary local resources or by removing barriers to HTD (High Tech Dev.). • The emphasis of the resulting initiatives falls into six general categories: • Research, development, and technology transfer; • Perhaps the most fundamental initiatives are those that aim to quicken the flow of innovation itself • b. Human capital; • Other initiatives focus on developing the human capital needed to • exploit these innovations. Two important secondary effects of • university/industry collaboration are improving science and • engineering training and providing continuing education for those • already employed by industry • c. entrepreneurship training and assistance; • A special subset of human capital is entrepreneurship, and many • initiatives by both universities and private sector groups , those who • create new technology-based companies • d. financial capital; • Many universities have also begun to invest in technology-based • spinoffs, either directly or through seed capital funds and venture • capital partnerships • e. physical capital; • Local governments often seek to encourage HTD through changes in • land use and zoning, as well as the provision of public services and • facilities. Incubator facilities, which provide low-cost office and • laboratory space for entrepreneurs and struggling firms, are one form • that this type of initiative can take ; and • f. information gathering and dissemination. • The first step in almost any State high-technology strategy is the • creation or local of a task force or commission, usually with university • and private sector participation. Source: OTA, 1984

18. Additional Factors increase the odds of success for State and local HTD initiatives • identifying local needs and resources; • adapting to external constraints; • linkage with broader development efforts; • local initiative and partnership (triple Helix) ; and • sustained effort, often over a period of decades.

19. CLUMPS OR INNOVATIVE CLUSTERS ? Many of the clusters we have worked in around the world are more clumps than innovative systems. The businesses are located together but there is limited interaction between the component parts of the cluster and limited interaction between the organisations that comprise the cluster component. • How do we move from clumps to innovative clusters?The essence of this approach in nurturing competitiveness is to remove the isolation of the cluster’s individual stakeholders, building them into an integrated and holistic system. • We place emphasis onthe development of a multiplicity of linkages within the cluster’s components, and between them; • We foster the development of linkages beyond the cluster; • We facilitate the building of whole-of-government support to the core and support firms; • We ensure broad ownership of the cluster’s strategy and early action, with private sector leadership; We train facilitators, based within the cluster, who provide the necessary neutral corner to bring together the cluster’s stakeholders and establish the forward agenda Clumps have an absence of social capital (the investment in building personal relationships) and this leads to a lack of trust. This leads to an underperforming cluster as there is limited circulation of tacit information and limited development of highly specialised competencies.

20. NATIONAL INNOVATIVE CAPACITY National innovative capacity is defined as an economy’s potential, at a given point in time, for producing a stream of commercially relevant innovations. This capacity depends in part on the technological sophistication and labor force in a given economy, but also reflects the investments and policies of the government and private sector that affect the incentives for and the productivity of a country’s R&D activities. • Common Innovation Infrastructure • Cluster-Specific Innovation Orientation • The Quality of Linkages

21. Cluster Development Process • Nurturing clusters: Now a common focus • With over 50 countries having cluster development on their agendas, clustering has today become an accepted part of economic development. The direction of these cluster programme comes from a range of perspectives: • Addressing competitiveness & innovation; • Business retention and expansion; • SME development; export development; • Skills & training; • Building Triple Helix alignment…business, government and academia; • Job creation; poverty alleviation; • Engagement of disadvantaged communities; • R&D, technology transfer, incubators, science parks.

22. Measuring Technology Achievement of Nations and the Capacity to Participate in the Network Age The challenge of rethinking development policies go beyond considering these incremental changes, but to a historic shift from the industrial to the network age. Recent breakthroughs in information communications technologies and biotechnologies have led to transformations - technological advances are more rapid (e.g. doubling of computing power every 18 months), more fundamental (e.g. breakthroughs in genetic engineering), and more dramatically shifting costs (e.g. decline in cost of transmitting trillion bits of information from US$150,000 to just 12 cents over the last 3 decades). The developments in biotechnology and information telecommunications technology codify, store, process and communicate information and knowledge. These advances have structural and not just incremental impacts because they are pervasive inputs into almost all human activities and so have pervasive impacts throughout the society. These transformations are intertwined with economic globalization leading to a historic shift, from the industrial to the network age. Production, research, and many other activities are restructured into ‘networks’ of individuals and organizations specialized into niches of expertise, with the costs of communications driven down to zero and geographical boundaries falling M. Desai, S. Fukuda-Parr, C. Johansson, and F. Sagasti2 Developing technological capacity Not all countries need to be on the cutting age of global technological advance. But every country needs the capacity to understand and adapt global technologies for local needs. It is often mistakenly assumed that technology transfer and diffusion are relatively easy, that developing countries can simply import and apply knowledge from outside by obtaining equipment, seeds and pills. But for firms or farms to use a new technology—to identify its potential benefits, to learn it, adapt it and use it—requires new skills and the ability to learn and develop new skills with ease (Lall, 2000). Note: TAI measurment (please see attached file)

23. 10 SARAN TENTANG PERAN PENTING PEMERINTAH UNTUK PENINGKATAN DAYA SAING(VIETOR, 2007) • The Place to start is basic property rights • Macro economic policies (the necessity of fiscal probity; deficit control) • Saving and investment for economic growth • Strong central banks are necessary for noninflationary growth • Microeconomic policies are also important • Labor market flexibility • Observation pertains to resource endowments • Corruption fighting • Minimizing Income inequality distribution • Reemphasizing the huge asymmetry that has unfolded in the global economy’s current account balances

24. TRANSFORM’s approach Outcomes Regional Regional Regional Development Development Development TransformationalPotential of R&D-tech Transformative Use of technology Transformative Use Transformative Use Behaviours TransformationalNeeds of the region Regional Innovation Regional Innovation Meanings Culture Culture

25. S T E P 2 S T E P 1 2nd phase: Transform via Hi-Tech 1st phase: Adopt Hi-Tech Individuals Exploiting the efficiencypotential of R&D – Hi-Techautomation, ICT, Bio-Tech, Nano-tech,, etc. Exploiting the trans-formational potential of R&D – Hi-Technetwork creation, enabling learning & innovation, participation & empowerment Firms Public sector R&D – HI-Tech d i f f u s i o n p r o c e s s What is “transformative”?

26. What is “transformative”? • The Adoption Question: What have you got? • Technology as asset (something that you have) • Technology Adoption Model (technological determinism) • Lots of quantitative research • Uneven take up • The Behavioural Question: What do you do with it? • Technology as process (something that you do) • Business Process Engineering (sociotechnical models) • Some Quantitative research (some at regional level) • Problems of execution in less favoured regions • The Innovation Culture Question: What does it mean? • Social Shaping/Construction of Technology • Very little quantitative research (very little geography)

27. Peningkatan Social Capital Otomatis Meningkatkan Kapasitas Creating Value

28. TWO TYPES OF KNOWLEDGE Nonaka and Hirotaka, The Knowledge Creating Company, 1995

29. CONTENTS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATED BY FOUR MODES Tacit Knowledge Explicit Knowledge to Tacit Knowledge from Explicit Knowledge

30. Spiral of Organizational Knowledge Creation Epistemological dimension Externalization Explisit knowledge Combination Socialization Tacit knowledge Internalization Epistemological dimension Individual Group Organization Inter-Organization Knowledge level

31. Five-Phase Model of the Organizational Knowledge-Creation Process Enabling Condition Interaction Autonomy Fluctuation/ Creative chaos Redundancy Requisite variety Tacit knowledge in organization Explicit knowledge in organization Socialization Externalization Combination Cross- leveling knowledge Sharing tacit knowledge Creating concept Justifying concept Building an Archetype Internalization Market Tacit knowledge From collaborating organization Explicit knowledge as advertisements, patents, product and/or services From users Internalization by users

32. PERAN IPTEK MEMBANGUN KAPASITAS KEARIFAN LOKAL SEBAGAI KOMPETENSI INTI UNTUK BERSAING; ADAPTASI KONSEP DAYA SAING SAKASAKTI

33. Nasional Regional Perusahaan Industri Sektor Ekonomi Propinsi Kabupaten Satu Kabupaten Satu Kompetensi Inti Membangun Indonesia In-Corporate SAKA SAKTI

34. Tahapan Analisa SAKASAKTI Potensi dan Eksisting Sumberdaya (analisis pemetaan aset regional) (Analisa statistik deskriptif clustering) Apa/ berapa/ dimana aset dan per’produk’an utama (kompetensi inti) • Sistem Informasi Geografis • Uji Syarat Unggulan: • Akses Pasar • Kontribusi Stakeholder • Barrier to Immitation Fine tune local competency • Value Chain • (main activities): • Inbound Logistics • Manufacturing • Outbound Logistics Investigasi proses industrialisasi mis. I-O model) Expert Choise/scoring analysis Valuating its industrial process Investigasi business linkages and Value Added Expert Choice/ Scoring analysis + EVA (Evaluation Value Added) • Strategic Routing • Core industries • Augment Industries Valuating its multiplier effect ….. Slide berikutnya

35. Tahapan Analisa SAKASAKTI Gap analysis (hasil penilaian VC&SR) Expert choice/ scoring analysis Scenario analysis • POPIS • Physical Capital • Organization Capital • Power Capital • Intellectual Capital • Social Capital Valuating its Capacity Studi kelayakan Recana Strategis dan program Monitoring dan evaluasi Kajian kemungkinan implementasi dan rancangan monitoring & evaluasi • Teknik Deplhi • IFA dan EFA • Matching • ESPQ Implementing Trading House Business Plan and regulating its operating Good Corporate Governance & Balance Score Card approach; inisiatif bisa dari pemda dan kepemilikan terbuka Implementasi SAKASAKTI dengan mengaktifasi Trading House Daerah

36. Diamond Concept Michael Porter (Pendekatan merumuskan Cluster Industry) • Intermediate suppliers • Capital good suppliers • Producer services • Consultants • Contract R&D Konteks lokalitas; pemberdayaan investasi dan peningkatan yang terus menerus Sektor Perdagangan Strategi, struktur Perusahaan dan Pesaing Sektor Terkait • Similar technologies • Share pool of labor • Similar strategies • Education (univ, colleges) • Training (cc’s) • R&D (univ, fed labs) • Development agencies • Regulatory agencies Institusi Pendukung Kondisi Permintaan Industri-industri pendukung dan terkait Pelanggan lokal yang istimewa dan sangat menuntut Berupa Klaster (bukan industri) Kondisi Faktor Kuantitas dan kualitas faktor serta biaya

37. Value Chain II Entrepreneurship Business domain . Strategic direction . Product(s) Core Activities Inbound Logistics Marketing & Sales Primary Activities Outbound Logistics Operations Service Margin Procurement Human Resource Management Support Activities Management Information System R & D Margin Managerial Infrastructure Activities Base Managerial Resources Technology System/Techno-economic Paradigm

38. Produk akhir 1 2 3 ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 4 THE ROOT OF COMPETITIVENESS THE ROOT OF COMPETITIVENESS 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC ATASE PERDAGANGAN TRADING HOUSE ITPC BISNIS 1 BISNIS 2 BISNIS 3 BISNIS 4 PRODUK INTI 1 PRODUK INTI 2 KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 1 KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 2 KOMPETENSI KABUPATEN 3

39. KOMPETENSI TANGIBLE INTANGIBLE SDM FISIK KEUANGAN TEKNOLOGI REPUTASI BUDAYA KETRAMPILAN & PENGETAHUAN KHUSUS KOMUNIKASI & INTERAKTIF MOTIVASI SYARAT : AKSES KE PASAR TIDAK MUDAH DITIRU KONTRIBUSI KE STAKE HOLDER Startegi SAKASAKTI FAKTOR KUNCI KEBERHASILAN INDUSTRI DAYA SAING STRATEGI KAPABILITAS ORGANISASI COLLECTIVE LEARNING

40. WINNING STRATEGIES THROUGH VALUE CREATION Competitive Strategy Competitive Strategy Competitive Advantage Competitive Advantage Distinctive Competencies Generic Strategy Organizational Capabilities Competitive Position Resource Available: Tangibles, Intangibles, HR Market Attractiveness Resource Based Strategy Market Based Strategy

41. Kebijakan IPTEK dalam Menunjang Daya Saing Daerah Nilai Pasar Kebijakan Strategis In & dag Potensi Kompetensi Inti Daerah ?? Tacit + Explisit Knowledge Model Daya Saing Daerah Balitbangda Kebijakan Strategis Pendidikan-(Kompetensi Lokal)- Institusi Pendidikan Model Pengembangan SAKASAKTI Forum Daya Saing Daerah Proses Inovasi Produk Balitbangda Tacit + Explisit Knowledge (local genius) Kebijakan Strategis KMNRT Produk Inti Daerah dan turunannya Kebutuhan Pasar

42. Themes Information management Market research Tech. transfer (offers / requests) Information campaigns Consumer education Actors Chamber of commerce NGO’s Local Gov. Foreign Offices Embassies ThemesActors On-the-job training NGO’s Tech. demo parks Local Gov. Training programmes Private industry Research Research Institutions University courses Universities Short-term courses Identification of best/good practices Research Education Training Business Support Services Themes Tax incentives Special loans Low-interest loans Microfinance Subsidies and grant Actors Local Gov. Commercial banks Central bank Financial Regulatory body Themes Transportation Supply of electricity / gas Actors Local Gov. Private sector Urban planners Commercial banks Multilateral institutions FOSTERINGBUSINESSPARTNERSHIPS Infrastructure Provision Financing Special incentives Legislation Rules, etc. Themes Policy systems Legislation, Acts Standards, ISO provisions Awards, fees, fines Actors Local government Regional/National Gov. Universities Research Institutions Themes Export processing zones Tax free / tax incentives Land leases Special industrial parks Actors Local Government Private sector Commercial banks Manufacturing Subcontracting Themes Actors Contractual obligations Private sector Manufacturing process Chambers of commerce Raw materials Packaging Pre/post sales initiatives

43. Farmasi Daun Pakan Ternak Pangan Manusia SINGKONG Etanol Pangan Charcoal Tepung Tape Kreasi/Bunga kering pangan Batang Briquet Pellet/Pakan Ternak Papan Partikel Tepung Singkong Keripik Roti Casabe Kulit Meal Farina Pakar Ternak Tepung Milk Makanan Fou Fou African Dish Agbelima Hasil Olahan Tapioka Pearl/Flakes Asam Sitrat Asam Laktat Umbi Glukosa Tape Ketela Fruktosa Gula Sukrosa Maltosa Sirup Monosodium Daging Gaplek Pati Modifikasi Glutamat Kertas Adhesives Teknologi Baru Protein (Protein Sel Tunggal) Urea Formaidehyde Resin Pati Coadjuvant Tepung Pasta Aceto Fermentasi Alkohol/ Etanol Cyanohydrin Cuka Bahan Bakar Motor

44. INDUSTRI AGRI TERINTEGRASI Pupuk Kandang Rotasi KACANG Daun & Buangan Padat Pupuk Kandang Daun & Buangan Padat POHON SINGKONG SAPI Tepung Tulang & Darah Buangan Padat & Cair IKAN GURAME

45. Penetapan Fase Pertumbuhan Kompetensi Daerah Analisa Kompetensi Inti Daerah ? ? ? ? ? Sudah tua perlu peremajaan dan inovasi (Tahap peremajaan)  grant>= investasi kapasitas ekspor Korporat sudah matang/ dewasa (tahap dewasa) grant>= investasi Fase 1 Fase 2 Fase 3 Fase 4 Fase 5 Direct export Korporat sudah mulai matang/ dewasa (tahap remaja) grant>= investasi Indirect export ? Tahap awal (start-up) perlu banyak bantuan khususnya dari pemerintah (tahap “bayi-balita”)  grant> investasi Spin-off A C B1 B2 D FS kapasitas produksi • External Growth Strategy • Expansion - Merger • Diversification - Sub-contracting • Joint Venture • Internal Growth Strategy • Expansion • Diversification usul

46. Dinamika Perubahan Global (Sectors of the Economy) Tertiary Percent of Workforce Secondary Quaternary Primary Time

47. Model Scenario Planning Interpretasi 1 Scenario 1 Implikasi 1 Ketidakpastian Interpretasi 2 Scenario 2 Implikasi 2 Pre-determined (bisa diduga) Interpretasi 3 Scenario 3 Implikasi 3 ? Kompetensi & strategi/ kebijakan yang dibangun saat ini

48. Merumuskan Kebijakan Publik dan Pendekatan Sakasakti Identifikasi isu pokok / kebijakan Identifikasi Potensi Daerah Key forces dalam lingkungan lokal Driving forces Menilai urutan dari aspek pentingnya dan ketidakpastian Studi Strategic Routing Menetapkan logika skenario Studi Value Chain Mengkaji skenario terpilih Implikasi strategi Menilai Kelayakan Model Kompetensi Inti Daya Saing Daerah Memilih indikator utama Masukan bagi skebario dari konsultan Menyetujui rencana implementasi Kebijakan Penataan Ulang (implementasi) Publikasi skenario

50. Terima Kasih Dan Semoga Bermanfaat