CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP) and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE Maj Kelly Lawson

1. Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC) Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP)and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATEMaj Kelly Lawson

2. Purpose To present doctrine for crisis action planning and the Commander’s Estimate

3. DJTFAC HANDBOOK References JP 3-0 Doctrine for Joint Operations JP 5-00.2 JTF Planning Guidance & Procedures DJTFAC Handbook

4. Develop a Military Course of Action Key Points Crisis Action Planning (CAP) Procedures: • Six phase process • Key Documents • Warning & Alert Orders • Commander’s Estimate • Requires Concurrent and • Collaborative Planning

5. What is a Crisis? • Threat to national / regional interest • Develops rapidly • May require military response

6. Why CAP? • Over 70 crisis events in past 10 years • No OPLANs apply

7. CAP Process Features • Rapid exchange of information • Analysis of situations affecting possible COAs • Development of valid COAs • Decision making process to select best COAs • Coordination of plans and orders to implement decisions made

8. Crisis Action Planning Process I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III Course of Action Development IV Course of Action Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution

9. Crisis Action Planning Process I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Planning CJCS Deployment CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order CINC CINC Planning CINC Deployment CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order OPORD CTF CTF PLANNING

10. PHASE ISituation Development I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution • COMMANDER'S ASSESSMENT: • Nature of Crisis • Forces Available • Deployment Timeline • Major Constraints / Restraints • Actions in Progress • Preliminary COAs NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment CINC CRISIS CTF

11. PHASE IICrisis Assessment I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution • NCA Considers: • National Interests • National Objectives • Crisis Determination CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment CINC • CINC: • Issues Status Reports • Assesses Force Disposition • Preparatory Actions CTF

12. PHASE IICrisis Assessment I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution • WARNING ORDER: • Situation • C2 Relationships • Mission, Objective, and Assumptions • Allocate Forces and Transportation Assets • Guidance & Instructions CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment CINC CTF

13. PHASE IIICOA Development I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution • CTF Tasks: • Mission Analysis • Issue Planning Guidance • Issue Warning Orders • Develop COAs • Develop Staff Estimates • Analysis of COAs • Comparison of COAs • Recommend COA • Submit Cmdr’s Estimate CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

14. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate • 6 PARAGRAPHS: • Mission • Situation and COAs • Analysis of COAs • Comparison of COAs • Recommended COA • Remarks CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

15. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE PARA 1: MISSION III COA Development ACTIONS ANALYZE THE MISSION RESTATE THE MISSION LIST ESSENTIAL TASKS GOAL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

16. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE PARA 2: SITUATION & COAS III COA Development • Considerations Affecting Possible COA’s • Characteristics of the Operations Area • Factors that Effect the Crisis • ASSUMPTIONS • Threat and Crisis Factors • Most Probable • Most Dangerous • Courses of Action • WHO will take action • WHAT Type of Action • WHEN the Action Begins • WHERE the Action Takes Place • WHY (Commander’s Intent) • HOW (Method of Force Employment) CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

17. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE PARA 3: COA ANALYSIS III COA Development • Detailed Description of War-Gaming of Courses of Action • Address Friendly Actions and Consequences to Those Actions for each COA • Illustrates the Task Force Commander’s Consideration of Most Probable and Most Dangerous Factors for Each COA CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate MPCOA MDCOA CTF CTF PLANNING

18. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE PARA 4: COA COMPARISON III COA Development • List Strengths and Weaknesses of Each COA • Highlight Differences in Strengths for each COA • Pay Particular Attention to Commander’s Intent and Guidance CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate Comparison Criteria CTF CTF PLANNING

19. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE PARA 5: RECOMMENDED COA III COA Development Task Force Commander’s Recommendation for Course of Action May Provide Rationale Used by Commander in the Decision Process CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

20. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE PARA 6: REMARKS III COA Development • Requests for Additional Forces • Recommended Changes to the Rules of Engagement • Caveats to Courses of Action if there are Changes to the Situation • Third Party Intervention • Impact of Possible Events • Impending Refugee Problem CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

21. THE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE COMMANDER’S ESTIMATE SUMMARY III COA Development • Submitted by the Task Force Commander in Response to the Warning Order • Reflects Task Force Commander’s Analysis of Possible Courses of Action • Recommends a Best Course of Action in Response to a Crisis Situation CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

22. COA VALIDITY TESTS I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS • VALID COAs ARE • Suitable • Feasible • Acceptable • Distinguishable • Complete Commander’s Estimate CINC CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate CTF CTF PLANNING

23. PHASE IVCOA Selection I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Planning • NCA Considers • COAs: • Diplomatic • Informational • Military • Economic • NCA SELECTS • COA NCA CJCS Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order CINC CINC Planning • CTF ACTIONS: • Prepare OPLANs • Force Protection • Refine Estimates • Resolve Shortfalls Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order CTF

24. PHASE VExecution Planning I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Planning • CTF Focus: • Forces Available • Force Sustainment • Strategic Mobility • Timeline • Shortfalls • Refine Ops Plan until • EXORD NCA CJCS Or Alert Order CINC CINC Planning Or Alert Order OPORD CTF

25. PHASE VIExecution I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Deployment • Execution Features: • Continuous up-channel • reporting • Phase continues until crisis • resolved or mission terminated, • and force redeployment • completed NCA CJCS Or Execute Order CINC CINC Deployment Or Execute Order CTF

26. Crisis Action Planning Process I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution CJCS Planning CJCS Deployment CJCS Warning Order NCA CJCS CINC’s Assessment Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order CINC CINC Planning CINC Deployment CINC’s Warning Order Commander’s Estimate Or Alert Order Or Execute Order OPORD CTF CTF PLANNING

27. WARNORD PLORD ALORD DEPORD EXORD PROVIDE RELIEF (Somalia) X X X PROVIDE COMFORT (N. Iraq) X X X X PROVIDE HOPE (Russia) X X PROVIDE PROMISE (Yugo) X X X X ABLE SENTRY (Macedonia) X X Haiti Advisory Group (Haiti) X X VIGILANT WARRIOR (Iraq) X X UPHOLD DEMOCRACY (Haiti) X X X XX DESERT STRIKE (Iraq) XX X CAP ORDERS IN RECENT OPS

28. Crisis Action Planning Summary I Situation Development II Crisis Assessment III COA Development IV COA Selection V Execution Planning VI Execution NCA NCA Monitor situation Gather information Take appropriate actions Increased information gathering Review of options COAs developed - major forces - support COAs evaluated Strategic command refines & presents COAs NCA COA decision Deployment plan completed Operations order developed Execute OPORDs Reporting Transition / redeploy Termination / Resolution

29. CAP KEY POINTS • THE CRISIS • Develops Rapidly • Threat to National / Regional Interest • May Require a Military Response • CAP FEATURES • Facilitates Rapid Exchange of Information • Requires Collaborative & Concurrent Planning • WHY CAP? • Time constraints Prevent Deliberate Planning • No existing Operation Plan Applies Designed to support a commander’s efforts to develop, analyze, select and implement a military COA

30. Deployable Joint Task Force Augmentation Cell (DJTFAC) Multinational Planning Augmentation Team (MPAT) CRISIS ACTION PLANNING (CAP)and COMMANDER’S ESTIMATEQuestions?