The Importance of Science to Market Transformation

1. The Importance of Science to Market Transformation

How a remarkably small band of gifted scientists sound the alarm and motivate government and business to save the world for future generations Personal Perspectives & Insights Stephen O. Andersen Climate Protection Partnerships Division

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Science sounded the ozone alarm Citizens motivated governments to act Governments guided public & corporate action Executives were ozone champions Partnerships transformed markets Strategies from Montreal for Kyoto Together we can protect the Earth

3. Ozone Science Was More Than Science

Genius scientists postulated theory of ozone depletion, predicted Earth�s future, and sounded the alarm--risking reputations Scientists all over the world perfected the theory, tested the hypothesis, and advanced the literature--keeping the flame alive Activist scientists debunked critics, engaged governments, and motivated politicians and the public Forensic atmospheric scientists found the Antarctic ozone hole, chemical fingerprints and smoking guns Science Assessment Panel Scientists entered the public arena, clearly and confidently, leaving policy makers with no doubt about what must be done

4. Ozone Science

Set the Stage: Silent Spring, Supersonic Transport, Spaceship Earth� Built the Foundation: Johnston, Crutzen� Sounded the Alarm: Molina & Rowland Called for Action: Rowland, Molina & NRDC Sustained Alert: Tolba & UNEP Unsung Heroes Ended Doubt: Solomon, Anderson, Others� Guided Action: Albritton, Watson� Re-Invigorated: Paul Newman�and company

5. Rewards of Excellent Science

Jump-Started Diplomacy Motivated Business Response Uncompromised Ozone Protection: Better for climate protection, health & safety Chlorine-Equivalent ODP-Weighting: Pragmatic pace and substance flexibility Renewed Annual Concern as Hole Opens Rapid Action with New Science

6. US Benefits of Ozone Protection

Skin Cancer Save 6.3 Million Lives & Avoid 299 Million Cases Cataracts Avoid 27.5 Million Cases Suppression of the Human Immune System Mitigated but Not Quantified Damage to Crops & Ecosystems Avoid ~1% Reduced Yield per 1% Ozone Depletion Hope for Children that Life Will be Good

7. Industry & Military Leadership

Montreal Controls Stimulated Cooperation Technical Assessment by Sector Experts The Power of Teams Motivated by Leadership Bottom-Up & Inside-Out Regulation Industry, Military & NASA Innovation Just 500 Champions Over 20 Years! 98% Phaseout Light at the End of the Tunnel

8. Montreal Protocol Market Transformation

250 Sector Global �Market Transformation� Heroic Science, Precautionary Principal, & Diplomacy Industry Guided & Technology Enabled No-Compromise Chemical Replacement Comprehensive environmental assessment Improved energy efficiency Mitigated safety & toxicity Products with lower ownership cost, increased employment 98% Ozone-Depleting Substance Phaseout in 20 Years Inconspicuous to Customers & Citizens Unappreciated Contribution to Climate Protection

9. Military & NASA Technology Saved the Stratospheric Ozone Layer

Aerospace & Electronics Solvents Badge of quality, undisputed cleaning performance Halon Fire Protection In combat and space evacuation is not an option Submarine & Ship Refrigeration and AC Reliability, toxicity, flammability �Who can complain if NASA and DoD resolve their extraordinary ODS dependence and NATO writes to the United Nations endorsing a complete phaseout?� Literally Rocket Science�

11. Ozone Recovery

So Close� Alternatives are Available for Most Uses Production is 98% Halted Atmospheric Chemical Levels are Declining Down-Sized Ozone Hole Yet So Far Away� Recovery to 1990 Level 15-years Later Than Hoped Ozone Layer Not �Healthy� at 1990 Level Accelerated Recovery Avoids More Skin Cancer, Cataracts, Suppression of the Human Immune System, and Agriculture & Ecosystem Damage

13. Montreal & Greenhouse Gases

20% of Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) Replaced by HFCs and PFCs Controlled by Kyoto (80% Not-in-Kind & Housekeeping) HFCs Replacing ODSs are Typically Lower GWP HFC-134a (100-yr GWP ~1300) replaced CFC-12 (100-yr GWP ~8100)

15. Technically/Economically Feasible Actions To Further Protect Ozone & Climate

Recover and Destroy Ozone-Depleting Substances in Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Fire Protection and Foam Products Accelerate the Phaseout of HCFCs in Developed and Developing Countries Reduce and Eliminate Emissions from Uses Exempted from Montreal Protocol Controls

17. Extraordinary Stratospheric Ozone & Climate Benefits

Accelerate Ozone Recovery 4-6 Years! Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions 10% Each Year for 10 Years! Reward Suppliers of Alternative Technology! Reward Citizens with Environmentally Superior Technology that Uses Less Expensive Energy! Demonstrate How People and Technology Can Protect the Earth for Future Generations!

18. Further Reading

S. Andersen & K.M. Sarma: Protecting the Ozone Layer, The UN History http://shop.earthscan.co.uk/ProductDetails R. Benedick: Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/BENOZD.html S. Andersen & D. Zaelke: Industry Genius: Inventions and People Protecting the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/ W.H. Lambright: NASA and the Environment: Ozone Depletion http://history.nasa.gov/monograph38.pdf B. Metz et al: IPCC/TEAP Special Report (Ozone & Climate) http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/specialrprt05/IPCC_low_en.pdf P. Canan & N. Reichman: Ozone Connections: Expert Networks in Global Environmental Governance http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/