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The Importance of Science to Market Transformation

The Importance of Science to Market Transformation. How a remarkably small band of gifted scientists sound the alarm and motivate government and business to save the world for future generations Personal Perspectives & Insights Stephen O. Andersen Climate Protection Partnerships Division.

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The Importance of Science to Market Transformation

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  1. The Importance of Science to Market Transformation How a remarkably small band of gifted scientists sound the alarm and motivate government and business to save the world for future generations Personal Perspectives & Insights Stephen O. Andersen Climate Protection Partnerships Division

  2. Preview • Science sounded the ozone alarm • Citizens motivated governments to act • Governments guided public & corporate action • Executives were ozone champions • Partnerships transformed markets • Strategies from Montreal for Kyoto • Together we can protect the Earth

  3. Ozone Science Was More Than Science • Genius scientists postulated theory of ozone depletion, predicted Earth’s future, and sounded the alarm--risking reputations • Scientists all over the world perfected the theory, tested the hypothesis, and advanced the literature--keeping the flame alive • Activist scientists debunked critics, engaged governments, and motivated politicians and the public • Forensic atmospheric scientists found the Antarctic ozone hole, chemical fingerprints and smoking guns • Science Assessment Panel Scientists entered the public arena, clearly and confidently, leaving policy makers with no doubt about what must be done

  4. Ozone Science • Set the Stage: Silent Spring, Supersonic Transport, Spaceship Earth… • Built the Foundation: Johnston, Crutzen… • Sounded the Alarm: Molina & Rowland • Called for Action: Rowland, Molina & NRDC • Sustained Alert: Tolba & UNEP Unsung Heroes • Ended Doubt: Solomon, Anderson, Others… • Guided Action: Albritton, Watson… • Re-Invigorated: Paul Newman…and company

  5. Rewards of Excellent Science • Jump-Started Diplomacy • Motivated Business Response • Uncompromised Ozone Protection: • Better for climate protection, health & safety • Chlorine-Equivalent ODP-Weighting: • Pragmatic pace and substance flexibility • Renewed Annual Concern as Hole Opens • Rapid Action with New Science

  6. US Benefits of Ozone Protection • Skin Cancer • Save 6.3 Million Lives & Avoid 299 Million Cases • Cataracts • Avoid 27.5 Million Cases • Suppression of the Human Immune System • Mitigated but Not Quantified • Damage to Crops & Ecosystems • Avoid ~1% Reduced Yield per 1% Ozone Depletion Hope for Children that Life Will be Good

  7. Industry & Military Leadership • Montreal Controls Stimulated Cooperation • Technical Assessment by Sector Experts • The Power of Teams Motivated by Leadership • Bottom-Up & Inside-Out Regulation • Industry, Military & NASA Innovation • Just 500 Champions Over 20 Years! • 98% Phaseout • Light at the End of the Tunnel

  8. Montreal Protocol Market Transformation • 250 Sector Global ‘Market Transformation’ • Heroic Science, Precautionary Principal, & Diplomacy • Industry Guided & Technology Enabled • No-Compromise Chemical Replacement • Comprehensive environmental assessment • Improved energy efficiency • Mitigated safety & toxicity • Products with lower ownership cost, increased employment • 98% Ozone-Depleting Substance Phaseout in 20 Years • Inconspicuous to Customers & Citizens • Unappreciated Contribution to Climate Protection

  9. Military & NASA Technology Saved the Stratospheric Ozone Layer • Aerospace & Electronics Solvents • Badge of quality, undisputed cleaning performance • Halon Fire Protection • In combat and space evacuation is not an option • Submarine & Ship Refrigeration and AC • Reliability, toxicity, flammability “Who can complain if NASA and DoD resolve their extraordinary ODS dependence and NATO writes to the United Nations endorsing a complete phaseout?” • Literally Rocket Science…

  10. Ozone Recovery • So Close… • Alternatives are Available for Most Uses • Production is 98% Halted • Atmospheric Chemical Levels are Declining • Down-Sized Ozone Hole • Yet So Far Away… • Recovery to 1990 Level 15-years Later Than Hoped • Ozone Layer Not ‘Healthy’ at 1990 Level • Accelerated Recovery Avoids More Skin Cancer, Cataracts, Suppression of the Human Immune System, and Agriculture & Ecosystem Damage

  11. Montreal & Greenhouse Gases • 20% of Ozone-Depleting Substances (ODSs) Replaced by HFCs and PFCs Controlled by Kyoto (80% Not-in-Kind & Housekeeping) • HFCs Replacing ODSs are Typically Lower GWP • HFC-134a (100-yr GWP ~1300) replaced CFC-12 (100-yr GWP ~8100)

  12. Emissions end of life Use & Banks Production recycle destruction Montreal Emission Sources

  13. Technically/Economically Feasible Actions To Further Protect Ozone & Climate • Recover and Destroy Ozone-Depleting Substances in Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Fire Protection and Foam Products • Accelerate the Phaseout of HCFCs in Developed and Developing Countries • Reduce and Eliminate Emissions from Uses Exempted from Montreal Protocol Controls

  14. CO2-Equivalent Halocarbon Bank Emissions ~7.5 Gt/year near 1990; about 33% of that year's global CO2 fossil fuel emissions ~2.5 Gt/year near 2000; about 10% of that year’s global CO2 fossil fuel emissions 1.2 Gt/year emission reduction is feasible, 2005 to 2015; about 5% of Kyoto 1990 baseline with co-benefits of advancing ozone recovery by 5 to 10 years INTERGOVERNMNENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT PANEL

  15. Extraordinary Stratospheric Ozone & Climate Benefits • Accelerate Ozone Recovery 4-6 Years! • Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions 10% Each Year for 10 Years! • Reward Suppliers of Alternative Technology! • Reward Citizens with Environmentally Superior Technology that Uses Less Expensive Energy! • Demonstrate How People and Technology Can Protect the Earth for Future Generations!

  16. Further Reading • S. Andersen & K.M. Sarma: Protecting the Ozone Layer, The UN History • http://shop.earthscan.co.uk/ProductDetails • R. Benedick: Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet • http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog/BENOZD.html • S. Andersen & D. Zaelke: Industry Genius: Inventions and People Protecting the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer • http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/ • W.H. Lambright: NASA and the Environment: Ozone Depletion • http://history.nasa.gov/monograph38.pdf • B. Metz et al: IPCC/TEAP Special Report (Ozone & Climate) • http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/specialrprt05/IPCC_low_en.pdf • P. Canan & N. Reichman: Ozone Connections: Expert Networks in Global Environmental Governance • http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/

  17. Industry GeniusInventions and People Protecting the Climate and Fragile Ozone Layer Stephen O. Andersen & Durwood Zaelke Forewords by Astronaut Richard Truly & UN Executive Jacqueline Aloisi de Larderel

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