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Statistical Update 2006

Statistical Update 2006. Lester Jones Research Services. Gallup Poll, 2006. Beer has always been preferred to wine in this poll, 2005 was a fluke and now beer is on top again with few pts to spare (4 pts +/- Margin of error). 41% Beer vs. 33% Wine.

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Statistical Update 2006

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  1. Statistical Update 2006 Lester Jones Research Services

  2. Gallup Poll, 2006 Beer has always been preferred to wine in this poll, 2005 was a fluke and now beer is on top again with few pts to spare (4 pts +/- Margin of error). 41% Beer vs. 33% Wine Source: Gallup Poll, 2006: Do you most often drink beer, wine, or liquor?

  3. Over 92 Million People Drank Beer in Past 30 Days! 210 x 44% = 92.4 million legal drinking age consumers 210 x 36% = 75.6 million 210 x 31% = 65.1 million Source: Scarborough Research 2006 (Sample of over 70,000 respondents: Beer and Spirits are drank in past 30 days and Wine is purchased past 3 months)

  4. Per Capita Consumption1970 to 2005 Beer 21.4 Wine 2.2 Spirits 1.4 Source: Beer Institute and Adams Beverage Group, 2006.

  5. Per Capita Ethanol Consumption1970 – 2005 Share 1970 1993 2005Beer 48% 57% 53% Wine 10% 14% 17% Spirits 42% 29% 30% Assume 4.5% for beer, 14% for wine and 40% for spirits Source: Beer Institute and Adams Beverage Group, 2006.

  6. Per Capita Ethanol Consumption1970 – 2005 Index With an index of 100 set to 1970, 35 years later, beer is 15% up, spirits -25% down, and wine is 69% up! Source: Beer Institute and Adams Beverage Group, 2006.

  7. US Beer, Spirits and WineVolume Trends(millions gallons) Source: Beer Institute and Adams Beverage Group, 2006.

  8. Consumer Price Index Beer, Wine, and Spirits at Home2002 to 2006 June YTD Source: BLS, Beer, Wine and Sprits at Home, Seasonally Adjusted – Annual Average and 6 Months for 2006

  9. Consumer Price IndexBeer, Wine, and Spirits Away from Home 2002 to 2006 June YTD Source: BLS, Beer, Wine and Sprits at Home, Seasonally Adjusted – Annual Average and 6 Months for 2006

  10. 2006 Industry YTD

  11. Industry Supply 2006 June YTD (1,000s of Barrels) Measure of total industry supply – all that is available for distribution. Source: Beer Institute, 2006 ( June 2006 imports estimated)

  12. Domestic ProductionFirst 6 months March and May added 1.6 million barrels

  13. Top 6 Importing Countries31 Gallon Barrels (through May 2006) Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Census

  14. Shipments and GrowthTop 10 States YTD June 2006 Shipment volumes in the top 10 states account for 53% of the national total and volumes change in top ten states account for 47% of the total volume growth 2005-06 YTD. Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  15. Top 10 Growth StatesYTD June 2006 The top 10 fastest growing states added 539,038 barrels in first 6 months of 2006—more than double what they added in 2005! Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  16. Bottom 10 Growth StatesYTD June 2006 Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  17. Draught Beer Report YTD 2006 Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  18. 2004-2005 YTD June Of the ten biggest states only Florida and Ohio experienced positive growth rates Overall only 18 states were growing at a positive rate with the average rate among the top ten sitting at 1.5% Domestic shipments down -2.2%; industry overall was down -1.9% 2005-2006 YTD June California is the only top 10 state growing at a negative rate Only 4 states are currently experiencing negative growth rates—the average growth rate among the bottom 10 states is 0% The top 10 are growing at an average of 5.5% Domestic shipments are up 1.9%; the industry overall is up 3.1% Industry Turn-Around Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  19. Forecast 2006

  20. Domestic Production (Tax Paid) of Malt Beverages1986 – 2006est (1,000s) Revised 2004 TTB 181,254,403 BI 180,950,000 Add 304,403 Barrels Forecast 2006 to be +0.8% Source: Beer Institute and TTB, 2006

  21. Domestic Production (Tax Paid)1st Half vs. 2nd Half Expect to give back -450k barrels (-0.5%) in 2nd half of 2006 Source: Beer Institute, 2005

  22. Imports of Malt Beverages31 Gallon Barrels (1,000s) 1986 – 2006 Expect Imports to grow to over 27.6 million barrels for 8% gainin 2006 Share will grow to over 13% of market in 2006 Imports accounted for only 4.5% of the US beer market in 1986. Over the past twenty years import market share has more than tripled and is forecasted to reach 13.2% in 2006. Source: Commerce Department, Bureau of Census, Beer Institute 2006

  23. 2006 Industry Forecast(1,000 barrels) Source: Beer Institute, 2005

  24. Five Year Trends

  25. Compound Annual Shipment Growth Rate 2000-2005 1.0>CAGR>0.0 CAGR>1.0 CAGR<0.0 Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  26. Compound Annual 21+ Population Growth Rate 2000-2005 1.5>CAGR>1.0 CAGR>1.5 CAGR>1.0 Washington, DC had the only negative 21 + population CAGR:-0.1% Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  27. Compound Annual Per Capita Consumption Growth Rate 2000-2005 0.0>CAGR>-1.0 CAGR>0.0 -1.0>CAGR>-2.2% Source: Beer Institute, 2006

  28. Beer Serves America - Update • Data collection for this year scheduled for October 2006. BI will be contacting brewers, importers, state wholesale associations and supplier members to verify employment and location data. • The new study will be released in February 2007. • Study will have expanded agricultural sectors drawn from feedback with Hop Growers and Barley Growers we have meet with over the past year.

  29. CONTACT: Lester Jones Beer Institute 202-737-2337 ljones@beerinstitute.org

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