The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

1. The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

2. We are learning to… • Describe how the population changes at each stage of the DTM • Explain why birth and death rates change at each stage • Give example of countries that fit into each stage

3. I Can… • Interpret each stage of the DTM • Give an account of the reasons behind the changes in birth and death rates at each stage • Name countries that fit each stage

4. The DTM shows the changes in birth rates and death rates of a typical country over time. The DTM has four main stages, and countries move from one stage to the next over time. The least developed countries might still be in Stages 1 and 2, while the most developed countries are in Stage 4. there is now though to be a stage 5 too. DTM

5. Stage 1 – A high stationary population • Both birth rates and death rates are very high • Total population is very low • Natural increase is low There are very few countries in stage 1 today – possibly only remote groups in the rainforest The UK was in Stage 1 before 1760

6. Stage 2 – An early expanding population • Birth rates are still high • Death rates are falling • Total population is increasing • Natural increase is high Some of the poorest developing countries are still in Sage 2 e.g. Malawi and Bangladesh The UK was in Stage 2 between 1760 and 1900

7. Stage 3 – A late expanding population • Birth rates are falling • Death rates are also continuing to fall • Total population is increasing • Natural increase is quite high Most developing countries are in Stage 3, such as Brazil. The UK was in Stage 3 between 1900 and 1950

8. Stage 4 – A low stationary population • Birth rates and death rates are low • Total population is steady • Natural increase is very low Most developed countries are in Stage 4, such as the UK and USA. The UK has been in Stage 4 since the 1950s

9. Stage 5 – A declining population • Death rates remain low • Birth rates are low and decreasing • Total population is decreasing • Natural increase is negative Some developed countries are now in Stage 5, such as Australia and Germany

10. Task One • Explain why a country’s population a) grows slowly during Stage 1; b) grows quickly during Stage 2. • Which stage of the DTM has: a) high BR and decreasing DR; b) BRs lower than DRs; c) low DRs and decreasing BRs; d) both BRs and DRs very high; e) low BRs and DRs • Why are BRs high in Stage 1? • Give reasons for death rates falling in Stage 2 • What does the Demographic Transition Model show? • Look at the graph in your booklet: a) Describe the changes in birth rates in a typical country over time. b) Describe the changes in death rates in a typical country over time. c) Describe the changes in population in a typical country over time.

11. Task Two Working in groups: Read through the information for the five countries below and decide into which stage of the DTM each country fits Country 1 GDP per capita $619 BR: 35/1000 DR: 15/1000 Country 2 GDP per capita $45903 BR: 7/1000 DR: 9/1000 Country 3 GDP per capita $443 BR: 40/1000 DR: 35/1000 Country 4 GDP per capita $2781 BR: 22/1000 DR: 10/1000 Country 5 GDP per capita $28423 BR: 13/1000 DR: 8/1000

12. Task Two Below is what you should have come up with: S = Stage Country 1 GDP per capita $619 BR: 35/1000 DR: 15/1000 Country 2 GDP per capita $45903 BR: 7/1000 DR: 9/1000 Country 3 GDP per capita $443 BR: 40/1000 DR: 35/1000 S - 2 S - 5 S - 1 Country 4 GDP per capita $2781 BR: 22/1000 DR: 10/1000 Country 5 GDP per capita $28423 BR: 13/1000 DR: 8/1000 S - 3 S - 4

13. Task Three On A3 paper, produce a poster showing the DTM along with the corresponding population pyramids

14. We were learning to… • Describe how the population changes at each stage of the DTM • Explain why birth and death rates change at each stage • Give example of countries that fit into each stage

15. Can I… • Account for the changes at each stage of the DTM • Place countries in the appropriate stage of the DTM according to their GDP, BR and DR