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Project FALCON

Project FALCON. Sanna Atherton Jenny Woodruff Ben Godfrey. 11kV Network Challenges. Inform long term investment decisions. Alleviate network constraints. T1 – Dynamic Asset Rating T2 – Auto Load Transfer T3 – Meshed Network T4 – Energy Storage T5 – Distributed Generation

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Project FALCON

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  1. Project FALCON Sanna Atherton Jenny WoodruffBen Godfrey

  2. 11kV Network Challenges

  3. Inform long term investment decisions

  4. Alleviate network constraints T1 – Dynamic Asset Rating T2 – Auto Load Transfer T3 – Meshed Network T4 – Energy Storage T5 – Distributed Generation T6 – Demand Side Management Engineering Commercial

  5. Select the best technique Carbon Cost Implementation Speed Network Performance Network losses

  6. Telecoms blueprint for the future

  7. Develop future load scenarios • Are the current profiles sufficient? • Do we need more sophisticated customer profiles ? • To find out: • Model different levels of uptake of low carbon technology • Build customer profiles from types of use • Create a larger set of customer types • SIM visualises expected constraints

  8. Share what we learn www.westernpowerinnovation.co.uk

  9. Phased Delivery 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 SIM Built New Load Scenarios Created Trials Data Analysed SIM Blueprint Consultation Final Report Produced Partner Contracts Agreed

  10. Scenario Investment Model(SIM)

  11. What does it do? • Network analysis for a Scenario encompassing many years. • Applies possible techniques to constraints • Assess solutions against multiple criteria (cost, practicality, CIs CMLs etc.) • Analysis & Visualisation of results

  12. Use of SIM • Guidelines on alternatives to reinforcement • Best options for this type of problem? • In which conditions is this solution suitable? Falcon • To support long term network planning e.g. for capital program / price control. • 11kV Network planning tool • Evaluate other solutions than used in Falcon After Falcon

  13. How will it work? Now Time Assessment time horizon

  14. Optimisation Now Time Assessment time horizon

  15. SIM components Simulation Harness Manage simulation branching Results store Network Modelling Tool Identify constraints Model techniquesNetwork editsCalculate CML/CI , lossesNetwork visualisation Load data Economic module Data mining tool Optimisation / prioritisation Network data Visualisation

  16. Load estimation

  17. Load Data

  18. Half Hourly Load Estimates present day Estimation Method Settlement data Energy model Network Measurements Quality Metrics & Analysis How well can we estimate loads today?Can we substitute estimates for monitoring equipment? Cost Fully monitored FullyEstimated Optimum Uncertainty

  19. Load Estimation – Industry Data • Based on the process used for settlement • Half Hourly estimates for non half hourly metered customers • Uses Estimated Annual Consumption + Profile coefficients for 8 different customer types. Add in Half hourly metered load, unmetered supplies, losses.Does this give us a good estimate? If so then use past data for similar day for real time estimation. But not so good for predicting load in 20 years time.

  20. Energy Model • Wider range of customer types(Dwelling type & age, heating system, occupancy, demographics ) • Customer PropensityDifferential uptake of new technologies. • Models different types of electricity usage (Heating, lighting, appliances, etc.) • Calculate impact of new technologies / changed efficiencies on load profile

  21. Future Energy Profiles & Scenarios Changes reflecting Scenario Customer type A (present day) Customer type A (2020)

  22. Engineering Intervention Techniques

  23. Dynamic Asset Rating TemperatureModels Real Time Ampacity Calculation to Control Cyclic Overload Ratings

  24. Technique 1 Outcomes

  25. Automatic Load Transfer 33kV 11kV 33kV 11kV

  26. Technique 2 Outcomes

  27. Meshed Networks 33kV 11kV 33kV 11kV

  28. Technique 3 Outcomes

  29. Energy Storage 33kV 11kV + - + - + - + - + - Network Management System

  30. Technique 4 Outcomes

  31. Commercial Intervention Techniques

  32. What Services could we use? • reducing activity • time-shift load • switch to own generation

  33. Post Event Demand Side Response Primary substation HV Feeder

  34. Challenges Location Location Location

  35. Learning Customers willing and able to respond?Commercial frameworks? Practicalities of implementation? Reliability? • How much load is flexible • Can customers see benefits • How much financial reward • How should reward be structured • Use of Aggregators • Common template • Communicating requirements • Measuring response • Realistic models for use in SIM

  36. Project FALCON Any questions?

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