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AFWA Site Update WG-CSAB April 2009 John Zapotocny

AFWA Site Update WG-CSAB April 2009 John Zapotocny. Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited. Overview. Operational Backup Operational METSAT Processing WRF Operational Transition DATMS-U Issues and Actions Developmental Initiatives Migration to Ensemble Modeling

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AFWA Site Update WG-CSAB April 2009 John Zapotocny

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  1. AFWA Site UpdateWG-CSABApril 2009John Zapotocny Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

  2. Overview • Operational Backup • Operational METSAT Processing • WRF Operational Transition • DATMS-U Issues and Actions • Developmental Initiatives • Migration to Ensemble Modeling • Cloud, Land Surface and Dust Model Improvements • Revolutionizing AFW Web Pages and Services

  3. Operational Backup NCEP (AWC, SPC, SWPC) NESDIS VAAC

  4. Operational Backup NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center Effective 1 May 09, the backup role will transition from 2 WXG (2 WS at Offutt AFB) to the 1 WXG (15 OWS at Scott AFB) to better align with unit capabilities Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) No real-world backups accomplished over the last 12 months 4 scheduled backups accomplished over the last 12 months NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) 5 short-term real world backups over the last 12 months 2 scheduled backups over the last 12 months

  5. Operational METSAT Processing

  6. FOUO/UCI DMSP Operational Status (As of March 09) • Removed in Public Release Version

  7. DMSP Update • Flight 17 (F17) • Primary operational spacecraft in early morning orbit • Second OLS decontamination Aug 08; restored thermal detector sensitivity to near early-orbit capability; T-Channel Gain step at 14/31 • Mar 09, OLS Visible detector flight software modified to address day-night transition in observed scene; improved imagery quality • OLS Low-light detector commanded to “Center-Lock” mode to provide consistency across scan; degraded (left to right imbalance of brightness), loss of surface resolution at edges of scan • Attitude control behavior • Gyro # 3 off Jun 2007 • Gyro # 1 off Jul 08 • MIMU – Primary for attitude control; nominal mapping accuracy • Installed on Flight 17 & 18 to ensure operational performance • SGYRO commanding software uploaded as MIMU backup

  8. DMSP Update • F16 • Primary operational spacecraft in mid-morning orbit • Attitude control maintained by S-Gyro software and gyro #3 • Gyro-3 performance remains stable • Infrequent Gyro Bias shifts temporarily move spacecraft out of basic pointing mode – data geolocation errors along track and at edge of scan but still operationally useful • F18 • Replacement for F16 in mid-morning orbit • SSMI/S will fly Engineering Model main reflector; more accurate collections anticipated • Nov 08 Launch slipped, AF/A3O-W request, to reduce risk of operational gaps during the transition to NPOESS • Final launch date in question at this time, may be 20 Oct 09 • Will launch on Atlas V booster; LEO support on track

  9. DMSP Update • Secondary flights • F15 provides additional hi-res imagery • Gyro issues similar to F16 • RADCAL Beacon operation rendering SSM/I unusable for AFWA automated NWP applications (22V channel) • F13 reached 14-year operational milestone on 24 March 09 • Continues providing global imagery and microwave (SSM/I) data on two remaining recorders • Recorder # 2 slightly degraded (magnetic tape wear) • F14 Tactical support only; Hi-res Direct Readout capability • Last recorder failed 23 Aug 08 • F12 Decommissioned Oct 08; attitude control issue

  10. METSAT Processing • METSAT Ingest Refresh • Transitioned DMSP, POES, GOES satellites, Sept 08 • Added capability to convert MetOp Level-1b to AFWA “SIMPLE” format • METEOSAT • MET-9 into primary operational service 11 Apr 07; Met-8 is backup • EUMETSAT continues imaging of IO region by MET-7 • AFWA/FNMOC receive EUMETSAT “archive files” from NESDIS vs. historical Met-7 rebroadcast from DOMSAT • MTSAT-1R • AFWA transitioned to HRIT data format, 26 Sep 07 • Providing routine feed to FNMOC operations • AFWA/Navy to cost-share recurring DOMSAT uplink expenses • MetOp-A • ‘Ingest’ declared operational Mar 09; converts Level-1b to ‘SIMPLE’ • CDFS II data base modification completed Apr 09 • Will be added to WWMCA May 09

  11. METSAT Processing • GOES • Seeking solution for full time GVAR receipt of GOES-10 (South) • No GOES-12 SXI due to X-ray Sensor (XRS) anomaly 12 Apr 07 • AFWA looks forward to GOES-13 SXI data to replace lost GOES-12 solar imagery • Aqua/Terra (MODIS) • Turn on of NSOF MODIS data via NESDIS gateway/DATMS-U 8 Apr 09; SH Aqua added to NH from NASA SGI production • Added hemisphere/week to monitor and minimize comm impact • Anticipate enhanced support for Aerosol analysis, developmental 6km global cloud analysis

  12. WRF Operational Transition

  13. WRF Transition Plan • Phase I: Replace existing MM5 windows with WRF • One-for-one replacement of CONUS and OCONUS MM5 windows (including current 45 km domains) with WRF starting with SW Asia domain (anticipated completion late 2009) • Retain “TC Tracker” over Pacific/Indian Oceans • Continue running MM5 in background until capability available in WRF (Version 3.1 delivered; Ops implementation early Jun 09) • Run 45km MM5 as input to the Dust Transport Application (DTA) for Africa, SW Asia, and Asia until transition to WRF model (Late 09) • Transition actions on hold due to internal contract issue • Phase II: Expand all 15/5km WRF domains

  14. Window ConfigurationAs of Apr 09 • Removed in Public Release Version 15km 5km Nest

  15. Maritime WindowsAs of Apr 09 • Removed in Public Release Version 15km 5km Nest

  16. Transition Timelines

  17. DATMS-U Issues & Actions 2006 98.1% availability 2007 99.65% availability 2008 99.5% availability 2009

  18. DATMS-U Issues & Actions • AFWA/A6 directed DISA to move the AFWA to NWS path from a Permanent Virtual Circuit (PVC) to Soft Permanent Virtual Circuit (S-PVC). The S-PVC dynamically re-routes around any failed node. Completed mid-March. • AFWA/2SYOS working manual backup procedures with NWSTG to send Alphanumeric data via NIPRNet/Internet in the event of an extended DISA outage. Estimated completion date to include testing 30 April • COPC JAG/CCMworking with DISA to establish a DISA to NOAA peer-to-peer network gateway • Estimate 6 months from requirements/funding approval

  19. Developmental Initiatives

  20. DoD Ensemble Modeling Pathfinder – JEFS Completed Dec 2008 Joint Global Ensemble (JGE) 79/58 members, 1 1, 7 day, 2 cycle/day  NCEP Medium Range Ensemble 21 GFS runs (T126, 4 cycles/day)  FNMOC Medium Range Ensemble 16 NOGAPS runs (T119, 2 cycle/day)  Canadian Medium Range Ensemble 21 GEM runs (90km, 2 cycle/day) • Recently added Canadian GEM ensemble - retrieve via NOMADS server • JEFS final project report submitted to HPCMO • AMC and NUOPC requirements make it likely that some form of JGE will transition into operations in the near future (~2010)

  21. Removed in Public Release Version Current Mesoscale Domains • 10 members, 30/10/3.33km, 2 cycle/day • Hourly output on 10/3.33km to 48/30 hrs • GEFS used for IC’s & LBC’s • Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter I.C.s • Varied model physics configurations • Perturbed surface boundary conditions CONUS

  22. Cloud, Land Surface and Dust Modeling Enhancements

  23. Cloud Modeling • Implemented Global Diagnostic Cloud Forecast Model, Dec 2008 • Statistical cloud model using NCEP GFS and AFWA Cloud Analysis • Running test version of high resolution Aerospace Nephanalysis (ANEPH) to feed 5km resolution cloud forecast model • Expected to be in production Spring/Summer 2009 • Started development of AFWA Couple Assimilation and Prediction System (ACAPS) • NCAR on contract for 4DVAR development • AER, Inc. developing/delivering upgrades to 1DVAR-based cloud properties capability; collaborating with NCAR to assimilate into 4DVAR

  24. Cloud ModelingRegional Cloud Forecasts DCF • Regional cloud cover model developed by AFRL (Don Norquist) • Pairs AFWA WRF output with CDFS-II WWMCA analysis • Statistically “chooses” which clouds best correlate with WRF “predictors” • 45/15/5 km WRF grids & global ½ degree GFS grid • 3-hr time step • 30 to 80 hr forecast (depends on grid) • DCF products: • Total fractional cloud coverage • layer coverage (5-layers) • layer top height & thickness • layer type 24

  25. Land Surface Modeling • Partnered with NASA and Army to develop Land Information System • LIS Initial Operational Configuration implemented 24 Feb 09 • Global ¼ degree lat/lon • Final Operational Configuration planned for Feb, 2010 • Support all AFWA WRF-domains • NCAR, NASA, AFWA joint project to couple LIS-WRF • Initial capability delivered March, 2009 • does not yet support parallel computing • Final development, testing, and full scientific evaluation to be completed during late FY09, early FY2010, delivered March 2010 • AFWA supporting NASA to couple LIS & CRTM (JCSDA project) • Final development to be completed in FY09/10, to be delivered April, 2010

  26. LIS initialized runs were able to reduce WRF warm bias LIS affected 0-48 hour fcst variables of surface weather, boundary layer, cloud, and precipitation LIS soil and snow fields capture fine scale surface features, reflecting important role in high resolution NWP Land Surface Modeling LIS Coupling with WRF • Demonstrate and evaluate using LIS to initialize WRF (ARW) SE Asia domain • 4 seasonal test case periods STUDY RESULTS: 26

  27. Dust Modeling • Running MM5-based Dust Transport Application (DTA) for Ops • Running developmental versions of: • GFS based DTA (1/2 degree) • WRF based DTA (45 and 15km domains) • Accessing Navy COAMPS model dust data and displaying products on developmental web page • Working to obtain UKMO dust model data • Developed ensemble based Dust Lofting Probability tool • Combines surface wind speed and stability data from ensemble system along with dust source region database to assess capability of environmental conditions to loft dust into the atmosphere • Well-received by forecasters; Most useful when used with other tools

  28. DTA Products Visibility

  29. DTA Developmental Products Google Earth Integration Dust Concentration

  30. DTA Developmental Products JGE Ensemble Based 138 hr fcst 6 hr fcst

  31. Revolutionizing AFW Web Pages and Services

  32. Revolutionizing AFW Web Pages & Services • Take enterprise view for AFW web portal • Bring AFWA (2WS and 14WS) web holdings together with OWSs including unit pages into single “weather.af.mil” • Same integrated page concept for unclassified and classified networks • How • Leverage SOA & OGC services for all AFW visualized product • Utilize Horace V as OGC services engine • Enterprise web built from OGC services “mash-up”

  33. “weather.af.mil” DesignSupports Many Viewing Engines All weather.af.mil content can be viewed thru various GIS panes - right-sized for mission/user High-bandwidth, 3-D viewer – Google Earth Medium/normal-bandwidth, 2-D viewer – Google Map/OpenLayers Low-bandwidth – Table driven PDA access 33

  34. “weather.af.mil” DesignFlexibility – Efficiency Pan and zoom in 2-D GIS pane Multiple services viewed as stacked layers Web page menus built dynamically from services Multiple styles for same product Easily supports wide-range of GRIB data Supports rapid product development and web page integration 34

  35. “weather.af.mil” ExampleCombining JMBL & KML Automatically updating current observations Legend Overlay Links to Raw Trends Hourly / Special Observations & Winds Color coded based on visibility, ceiling, & temperature Color coded wind barbs based on wind speed

  36. KML Display InitiativeGoogle Earth – Google Maps • Removed in Public Release Version • Conditional Cloud Climatology Climatological Wind Rose - Pan/tilt to see terrain impacts - Overlaid on airfield

  37. What Next Rapid OGC services development Accomplished with team of indigenous assets – Not a contract action Roll-out developmental/prototype capabilities weekly Ambitiously targeting IOC end CY2009 – Network accreditation is long-pole in tent Not This This 37

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