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High School Predictors of College Course Readiness:

2. Presentation Outline. Background and data sourcesCollege attendance patterns of the Classes of 2004 and 2005Factors influencing college readiness in mathFactors influencing college readiness in English. 3. Background. The issue of college remediationEffects on public schoolsEffects on coll

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High School Predictors of College Course Readiness:

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    1. 1 High School Predictors of College Course Readiness: The characteristics of High School Graduates Who Enroll in Remedial Math and English Courses Brandon Lagerquist Carolyn O’Keeffe Northshore School District Paul Stern WSU-SESRC December 7, 2007 x x

    2. 2 Presentation Outline Background and data sources College attendance patterns of the Classes of 2004 and 2005 Factors influencing college readiness in math Factors influencing college readiness in English xx

    3. 3 Background The issue of college remediation Effects on public schools Effects on college systems Effects on students Effects on society

    4. 4 Background College remediation and our district How well prepared are our graduates for college level math and English? What variables connect those who are prepared versus those who are not prepared?

    5. 5 Study Sample Graduated from high school in 2004 or 2005 Enrolled in district at least 3 years Not enrolled in the ELL program Enrolled at a public college and information available about readiness for college-level math or English x x

    6. 6 Questions to Think About Are Northshore graduates more likely to attend a 2-year or 4-year college? How does this differ from state averages? What percentage of students who stop at Algebra II are ready for college-level math? Does it matter if they took math in their Senior year? Which is a better predictor for English: grades earned or highest level taken? xx

    7. 7 Data Sources High school transcript, assessment, and demographic information Higher education enrollment and remediation data from the Graduate Follow up Study (GFS) and National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) Enrollment & assessment data from Washington’s public colleges and universities xx

    8. 8 Transcript Course Codes x x

    9. 9 Research Questions about College Enrollments What are the characteristics of students attending four-year baccalaureate universities versus two-year community or technical colleges? How many graduates of the class of 2004 who went to college in the first year continued their enrollment into a second year? x x

    10. 10 College Attendance Compared to State x x

    11. 11 Level of College Attended by Student Characteristics xx

    12. 12 The Type of College Attended Varies by High School xx

    13. 13 Persistence in College (Class of 2004) xx

    14. 14 Research Questions on Remedial Enrollments Does a student’s highest level of math or English predict whether they will need to take remedial courses? Does a student’s grade in math or English predict whether they will need to take remedial courses? Does the timing of high school coursework influence the need for remedial instruction? How does performance on the reading and math WASL relate to the likelihood that a student was ready for college level coursework? Among graduates who took the SAT, what is the relationship between SAT scores and the need for remedial math or English? xx

    15. 15 Definition of “College Ready” in Math 2-Year Colleges: A student who enrolled in a college-level course at a community college without first taking a remedial course. 4-Year Colleges: A student who received a score on the Math Placement Test that placed them into a college level course, and if they were not identified on the GFS as having enrolled in a remedial course. xx

    16. 16 College-Readiness Rate in Math: 48% xx

    17. 17 Highest Level of Math Taken in High School x   x  

    18. 18 Algebra II/Trig is not the key course for college level math xx

    19. 19 Highest Level of Math Taken Explains the Difference in 2 and 4-Year Remediation Rates xx

    20. 20 The second strongest predictor of college-readiness is GPA in math x x

    21. 21 “Math Atrophy”: Truth or Myth? x   x  

    22. 22 “Math Atrophy” is a Myth x x

    23. 23 The Math Section of the WASL is a Good Predictor of College-Readiness x x

    24. 24 The Math SAT is a Good Predictor of College-Readiness xx

    25. 25 Findings from Regression on Math College Readiness Logistic regression with an R2 value of 46% Highest level math course (most important) Math WASL Score High School Math GPA Gender (Males more likely) Being a graduate of HS1 Taking a Running Start math class Non-significant variables: Years enrolled, special education, and taking any math in the senior year x x

    26. 26 Results by High School xx

    27. 27 Results by High School (Highest Level of Math Taken) x x

    28. 28 Results by High School (Grades Earned in Math) xx

    29. 29 Results by High School (Math WASL Performance) xx

    30. 30 Definition of “College Ready” in English 2-Year Colleges: A student who enrolled in a college-level course at a community college without first taking a remedial course. 4-Year Colleges: All students were assumed to be ready for college-level work unless they were identified on the GFS as having enrolled in a remedial course. xx

    31. 31 College-Readiness Rate in English: 92% xx

    32. 32 Highest Level of English Taken in High School x x

    33. 33 Highest Level of English Taken is Not a Good Predictor x x

    34. 34 A better predictor of College Readiness is GPA in English x x

    35. 35 English Credits Earned is also predictor of College Readiness xx

    36. 36 The Reading Section of the WASL is the Best Predictor of College-Readiness x x

    37. 37 The Verbal Section of the SAT is a Good Predictor of College-Readiness x x

    38. 38 Findings from Regression on English College Readiness Logistic regression with an R2 value of 26% Reading WASL Score was most important Being a graduate of HS1 English GPA Credits earned in English Taking a Running Start English class Ethnicity (Asian students struggled most) Non-significant variables: Highest level of English taken, taking any English in the senior year, gender, special education, and years enrolled in the district x     x

    39. 39 Results by High School x x

    40. 40 Results by High School (Reading WASL Performance) x x

    41. 41 Results by High School (Grades Earned in English) xx

    42. 42 Results by High School (Credits Earned in English) x x

    43. 43 Conclusions – College Enrollments 76% of graduates from the Northshore School District enrolled in college. Northshore graduates were much more likely to attend a four-year college than the typical Washington graduate. Graduates attending college were very likely to remain enrolled from the first to second year. xx

    44. 44 Conclusions – Remedial Math 48% of graduates were ready for college-level math. Graduates were most likely to enroll in a college-level course if they had taken at least pre-calculus (79%) or calculus (87%). Math grades were the next strongest predictor with 67% who have a B average or better being college ready. There is no evidence of math ‘atrophy’ from not taking math in the senior year of high school. Performance on the WASL and SAT correlate well with the odds of being ready for college level math. Considering the characteristics of High School 1 graduates, the rate of college readiness in math is much better than would be expected. xx

    45. 45 Conclusions – Remedial English 92% of graduates were ready for college-level English. Performance on the Reading WASL was the best predictor of college readiness. Grades in English were the next strongest predictor. Credits earned in English were also significant High School 1 (94%) and High School 2 (93%) had the highest college readiness rates in English. Considering the characteristics of High School 1 graduates, the rate of college readiness is much better than would be expected. xx

    46. 46 Impact on our district 246 of graduates in the study stopped-out at Algebra II as a Junior How do we get these students to take Pre-Calculus as a Senior? Why are they not taking math as a senior? What grades did they earn in Algebra II Would they have succeeded in pre-calculus?

    47. 47 REVIEW OF SLIDE 22 x x

    48. 48 Impact on our district 26% of the graduates in the study who received an L4 on the math WASL were not “college ready” for math. 54% for those who received an L3 Only 4% of the graduates in the study who received an L4 on the reading WASL were not “college ready” for English. 11% for those who received an L3

    49. 49

    50. 50 Impact on our district Variables that clearly show effect in math preparedness not as visible for English preparedness Difference between A or B in GPA only 3% Difference between highest level taken being Junior level or Senior level only 1%

    51. 51 x x

    52. 52 Impact on our district Starting a dialogue High performing districts are not immune to college remediation needs Why did HS1 have lowest scores on all variables and then have the second best remediation rates in math and English?

    53. 53 Impact on our district Community/Technical College students less “college ready” than University students 31% compared to 69% for math 86% compared to 97% for English

    54. 54 Challenges Getting past finger pointing Accounting for all possible variables Development of a consistent definition for “college ready” Placing courses into appropriate levels

    55. 55 Next steps… Introduce more variables Study more recent graduating classes Look at amount of remediation needed

    56. 56 For More Information Northshore School District Brandon Lagerquist Carolyn O’Keeffe (425) 408-7722 (425) 408-7715 blagerquist@nsd.org cokeeffe@nsd.org WSU-SESRC Paul Stern (360) 576-6030 xt. 21 sternpo@wsu.edu xx

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