Implications of Climate Change on Environmental and Social Management in Hydropower Projects

1. Jack Mozingo Principal Environmental Adviser EBRD Implications of Climate Change on Environmental and Social Management in Hydropower Projects

2. Implications of climate change • What changes could occur? • Long-term changes in precipitation and snowmelt? (↑ or ↓?) • Seasonal changes in run-off due to changes in precipitation and snowmelt? (What seasons increase? Decrease?) • Increased variability in flow rates (flooding, drought), including more extreme events (larger floods and drier droughts)? • Changes in evapotranspiration? (↑ or ↓?) • Which ones are more or less likely to occur? • Can magnitude or direction (↑ or ↓?) be predicted regionally or locally?

3. Implications of changes in amounts of water • More or less water for irrigation and/or power generation • If less, how to balance reductions in power vs irrigation vs other uses? • Are changes predictable at this time in this location? • Minimum biological flow (MBF): • if MBF based on annual average flows, any increase or decrease in MBF based on change in averages changes economics • Changes in amounts and timing of water change demands for irrigation vs power vs other • Response: Flexibility to allow adjustments in key conditions to reflect what happens in the real world

4. Implications of changes in timing • Downstream risks from flooding • Downstream changes in land use (seasonal flooding, increased salinization) • Decreased flow at critical periods of fish life cycles (spawning, migration)

5. Other factors in the real world • Climate change is one factor, most important at headwaters and upstream facilities • Upstream decisions can be more important for downstream facilities

6. What is the answer? • Flexibility • Changes in flows are unpredictable • Changes in timing of flows are unpredictable • Changes in demands are slightly predictable • Changes in upstream decisions are somewhat predictable but will depend on the changes above • Adaptive management • The only approach that can address uncertainty and adjust to actual conditions

7. How can we adapt? • Modify ESIA design? • Examine consensus opinions on likely climate change for region and locality • Sensitivity analysis of flow rates and timing against economics, including maintaining constant biological minimum flows • Increase awareness of uncertainty, increase emphasis on quality data • Increased emphasis on upstream consultations • If any potential increase in downstream risk, increased downstream stakeholder engagement • Evaluate need for downstream warning systems • Re-examine impacts due to changes in reservoir management and downstream flows – present range of potential impacts rather than single-point prediction

8. How can we adapt? (2) • Lenders: • Economic sensitivity analysis • Flexibility in EHS conditions, including required re-evaluations • Increased attention to client’s decision-making and re-evaluations throughout performance • Regulators • Awareness of uncertainty • Flexibility in re-setting conditions (biological minimum flow)

9. How can we adapt? (3) • Operators • Increased attention to uncertainty • Establish robust data collection systems • Monitor scientific consensus • Maintain open communications with stakeholders, including regulators, lenders, scientific community, affected communities and people, upstream and downstream governments/facilities • Balance competing needs with flexibility

10. Questions? Thank you!