Some Results Trends in Components of Auckland Regional Population Change

1. Some ResultsTrends in Components of Auckland Regional Population Change James Newell Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates (MERA) Based on a presentation to the Auckland Regional Council On 3rd March 2006

2. Outline • Population change components summary and discussion • Births and Birthrates • Deaths and Life Expectancy • Internal Migration • External Migration • Some Usually Resident NZ Population Statistics

3. Ethnicity breakdown of PLT external migration? • No ethnic origin breakdown for Permanent Long Term External Migration • Birthplace only from 2000 • Citizenship available for part of the period, was dropped from some years in early 1990’s • Country of origin / destination available throughout

4. Issues re : Pop Chge Cpnts • Prepared for June Years • PLT External Migration probably assigns more arrivals to Auckland City than actual (but also is an undercount of those who don’t identify arrival destination location • Net External Perm Long Term (PLT) migration only, doesn’t include est of internal migration • Ethnic Group Breakdown for natural increase only • Future work – could use grouping source countries as a proxy for an ethnic group disaggregn of PLT External Migr

5. Components of Auckland TA Region Population Change

6. Auckland : Natural Increase Components

7. New Zealand – all Gps

8. Auckland Region – all Gps

9. Auckland City – all Gps

10. North Shore City – all Gps

11. Manukau City – all Gps

12. Auckland Region - Ethnic Breakdown of Natural Increase

13. Auckland City : Natural Increase by Ethnic Group of Child

14. North Shore City : Natural Increase by Ethnic Group of Child

15. Population Change Components – Key Points • Net external (international) PLT migration • gains outweighed natural increase for the 1995 / 1996 and 2002 / 2003 June years for the six core TA's of the region • negligible or negative 1999 to 2001 • dropping off from the 2003 June Year peak. • Natural Increase • Net population gain growing slowly since 1992. • For Auckland City • Steady drop in the natural increase of the european population • Rise in rate of natural increase of the Asian population

16. Births and Birth Rates • Live births grew steadily between 1997 and 2005 • non-european ethnic groups growing share of total, especially in Auckland City • Sharp drop in the birth rate amongst NZ women aged under 30 between 1992 and 1996 • slower rate of decrease since. • Women under 30 of Maori and Pacific Island ethnic origin much higher birth rate than NZ European or Asians. • Auckland Region NZ Europeans less likely to have children under 30 than NZ population as a whole. • Auckland Region Pacific Islanders more likely to have children under 30 than the NZ Pacific Island population • Short term, changes in ethnic composition and age composition of local populations • likely to have a greater influence on variation in births than changes in birth rates by age or ethnic group. • Major part of the “shrinking” proportion of births of NZ european ethnicity is high rate of intermarriage, interbreeding between NZ europeans and others

17. Births by Ethnicity of Child Auckland Region

18. NZ Births (per 100 women) by Age of Mother

19. NZ Births (per 100 women) by Age and Ethnic Group of Mother (2001-2005)

20. Auckland Region Births (per 100 women) by Age and Ethnic Group of Mother (2001-2005)

21. Deaths and Life Expectancy at Birth • Deaths have been increasing at a lower rate than births in the Auckland Region in recent years • increases the rate of natural increase. • Life expectancy at birth increased steadily for the population as a whole between 1992 and 2005 • some convergence between male and female rates. • Life expectancy at birth was lowest for Maori and highest for Asian residents. • Generally, • the number of deaths of persons of European ethnic group decreasing • number of deaths of Pacific Island, Maori and Asian residents increasing

22. Auckland Region Deaths by June Year 1997 to 2005

23. Estimated Life Expectancy at Birth for Auckland Region versus NZ for 2001 to 2005 June year period

24. Estimated NZ Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex June Yrs 1992 t0 2005

25. Estimated NZ Life Expectancy at Birth by Ethnic Group June Yrs 2002 to 2005

26. Migration Components

27. Auckland TA Region Migration Breakdown

28. Auckland TA Region : Net Migration Trends by Age Group

29. Internal Migration – key points • Gradually decreasing as a contribution to population growth over time • Increase in youth inflows and increase in family and retiree outflows • Cycling of population through the Auckland Region – youth inflows and family / retiree outflows • The net migration rate of youth to Auckland reached a peak over 1996 to 2001 • Long term • has been usually been a net internal migration loss of europeans • net gain of those of Pacific Island, Maori or Asian ethnicity

30. Auckland Region TA’s - Internal Migration Transitions

31. Auckland TA Region - Internal Migration Rate by Age group 1981 to 2001

32. Auckland TA Region Migration Components

33. Net Internal Migration Estimates by Ethnic Group – 1976 to 2001 (excl 1991-96)

34. Internal Migration – Questions / Predictions • As population of NZ ages • size of migration flows for different age groups will change • Decrease in youth inflows as potential pool for youth in migrants will drops • Increase in outflows of older people as the number of old people increases? • Meaning increasing net internal migration loss? • International out migration to places like Sydney • a growing alternative to youth migration to Auckland?

35. External Migration

36. First Some Main points • External Migration • Volatile – cyclic • Very high flows over long term • Highest ever flows 2001-2003 • Dropped 2003-2005 but flattened out most recently (July – Dec 2005) • Recent drop has been due to big slow down in Asian flows (policy change? Exchange rates) • Some replacement by UK, North America, Southern Africa etc.)

37. External Migration – Questions • Long term can expect high international flows to continue and continue to favour Auckland – but fluctuate in a 5 year or so cycle of peaks and troughs • Migration and population growth post 2001 did not slacken –but accelerated for two years of prodigious growth – to slow in mid 2003 – but downturn plateaued in late 2005 and unknown what direction it will take next • Recent drop has been due to big slow down in Asian flows (policy change? Exchange rates) • Some replacement by UK, North America, Southern Africa etc.) • Policy driven change in international migration flows discouraging Asian migrants and competition from other destinations? • Will commentators create a downturn by talking down prospects / expectations?

38. Auckland Region TA’s - International Migration Transitions

39. Net External PLT Flows – Intercensal Periods

40. NZ Born Only - Net External PLT Flows – 2001 to 2005

41. Permanent Long Term Migration Mthly 1978- December 2005

42. Permanent Long Term External Annual Migration NZ Residents Seasonally Adjusted

43. Net PLT – 10 Year Moving Average Annual Migration

44. Net PLT – 20 Year Moving Average Annual Migration

45. Summing International Flows Streams

46. Auckland Region – Annual Smoothed External PLT

47. External Migration Flows Sum

48. Annualised Akl Net PLT by Country

49. PLT Res Migr Northeast Asia

50. PLT Res Migr - South and East Africa