November 6, 2008 Dr. Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research NOAA Climate Program Office

1. Toward a National Climate Service November 6, 2008 Dr. Richard D. Rosen Senior Advisor for Climate Research NOAA Climate Program Office

2. The World Has Warmed IMPACTS Drought Receding Barnes Ice Cap

3. Role of human activities in warming is now better established • The size of this warming is broadly consistentwith prediction of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. IPCC First Assessment Report, 1990 • The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. IPCC Second Assessment Report, 1995 • Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likelyto have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001 • Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likelydue to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

4. NOAA and Climate 4

5. NOAA & Climate: The Present 5 • NOAA is a leading provider of authoritative weather, water, and climate information within the U.S. and internationally • NOAA’s products are the result of a vigorous research program and a growing operational capability • Products and services are currently provided in a distributed manner

6. Monitor the state of the climate 6 • Climate Observations Program • Climate System Observations • Atmosphere • Ocean • Arctic • Carbon • Data Management and Information • NOAA’s Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System • State of the Climate Report • Climatological Statistics and Summaries

7. Understand the future state of the climate 7 • Climate Research and Modeling Program • Understanding Climate Processes • NOAA’s Research Laboratories, Centers, and Cooperative Institutes • Competitive Grants • Climate dynamics, atmospheric composition, carbon cycle • Earth System Modeling, • Predictions, and Projections • GFDL and NCEP • Coupled climate models • Earth system model development • Analysis and Attribution • Reanalysis • Integrated Earth System Analysis • Attribution GFDL MODEL

8. Assess evolving user needs 8 • Climate Services Development Program • Assessing Climate, Impacts and Adaptation • Global, national, regional, • sectoral assessments of • vulnerability, impacts, and • adaptation • Climate Services Development and Delivery • National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) • Emerging foci on Coasts, Arctic, Fisheries,… • Regional • International

9. Toward a National Climate Service 9

10. Toward a National Climate Service Public demand for climate information exceeds current capacity Sources of information are distributed and usually not coordinated Commitment to establish a Climate Service is needed to integrate provision of NOAA’s climate products and services NOAA needs to engage other agencies and organizations in defining their roles in a National Climate Service partnership Improved capabilities are needed to enable: User and issue focused approach Better monitoring Improve national as well as local predictions and projections Assessments of impacts and vulnerabilities in support of adaptation and mitigation 10 CarbonTracker

11. Climate Products and Services 11 Monitoring Research Model development Predictions and projections Archive and access to data Assessments (e.g. IPCC, Unified Synthesis Product) Public outreach and communication Issue-focused services (drought, LMR, coasts) Risk analyses, hazard and early warnings Regional applications, management tools, operational capability Capacity building Coordination and oversight Products and services would include: However, our expectation is that this list will evolve as the climate service partnership grows. Bold = Indicates services NOAA’s is already providing in some capacity

12. Moving Toward A Climate Service: Within NOAA • Actions to date: • NOAA leadership established an internal working group to develop a strategy for climate services • Met with users of climate information across the agency on climate services needs • Completed a draft Strategic Plan for a National Climate Service and a proposal to develop a partnership that were approved by NOAA leadership • Assessing current capabilities and future needs within agency to identify gaps NOAA needs to fill to better provide climate services 12

13. A National Climate Service 13 Mission:Develop and deliver research, information, and services to enhance society's ability to understand, anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate variability and change Strategic Goals • Provide Leadership for a National Climate Services Partnership • Build and Sustain Comprehensive Observations and Monitoring Systems • Provide State-of-the-Art Research, Modeling, Predictions, and Projections • Develop, Deliver, and Communicate Valued Climate Services in Collaboration with Users

14. External Engagement NCS Constituent Roundtables: Series of small, sector-specific roundtables to discuss need for a NCS and highlight NOAA’s role Other engagements include External review of draft NCS strategy (June 23-26, Vail, CO) Broad external engagement will be central to the successful implementation of a National Climate Service • Sectors: • - Intergovernmental – June 27 - Academic Research - August 7 • - Insurance and Risk – July 30 - Public Health – August 14 • - Energy – July 31 - Environmental NGOs – August 26 • - Data Providers - August 5 • - State Climatlogists - Federal Agencies (ex. USGS, EPA) • - AMS Forums - CCSP • - National - State Flood Plain Managers • - Congress - OSTP Recommendation: Analyze potential options against a set of principles and objectives developed by review team. Analysis will be performed by tiger teams (~8 people, diverse representation) and a coordinating committee. 14

15. Coordinating Committee Coordinating Committee Participants: • Chair: Eric Barron (NCAR) • Tiger Team Chairs: Dave Evans (Noblis), Jack Fellows (UCAR), Tom Armstrong (USGS), Joe Friday (Ret.) • NOAA: Sandy MacDonald and Charlie Baker • Paul Posner (NAPA / George Mason U.) • Paul Knight (AASC) • Andy Rosenberg (UNH) • Peter Schultz (CCSP) • Berrien Moore (Climate Central) • Jack Kaye (NASA) • Len Pietrafesa (Climate Working Group)