How to Embrace Complexity and Change the World

1. How to Embrace Complexity and Change the World Dr Jean Boulton Visiting Senior Research Fellow, DSPS, University of Bath Director, Claremont Management Consultants Ltd July 2019 j.g.boulton@bath.ac.uk www.embracingcomplexity.com

2. It’s a matter of belief What is complexity theory and how does it fit into science? The nub of complexity So what do you do differently?

3. It’s a matter of belief Our beliefs/values/worldviews/mindsets are fundamental to how we go about politics, leadership, organisation change, economics, parenting, living ….

4. It’s a matter of belief Our beliefs/values/worldviews/mindsets are fundamental to how we go about politics, leadership, organisation change, economics, parenting, living …. What we regard as the correct science to understand the social and natural world is an important part of our belief system

5. Science and its role in the social and natural world (a) The Mechanical worldview (b) The equilibrium worldview Equilibrium thermodynamics ‘this pure theory of economics is a science which resembles the physico-mathematical sciences in every respect’. (Walras, 1874) accords with ‘natural law’ Enlightenment Management theories Neo-classical economics Perfect closed systems focused on specific problems

6. Why does it matter what science we use for our worldview? The machine view The ‘free market’ view (equilibrium thermodynamics) Standardise Best practice Plan, predict Cause and effect Economies of scale Reversible change But UK 23rd out of 24 numeracy, 24th out of 24 literacy (OECD, 2013) Current 50-60 year-olds score better than school children

7. Why does it matter what science we use for our worldview? The machine view The ‘free market’ view (equilibrium thermodynamics) Standardise Best practice Plan, predict Cause and effect Economies of scale Reversible change But UK 23rd out of 24 numeracy, 24th out of 24 literacy (OECD, 2013) Current 50-60 year-olds score better than school children Trust the market No need for governance But increasing inequality,; less diversity (e.g. fewer bigger banks), concentration of power; the powerful go unregulated. UK third worst inequality in OECD countries (2014)

8. Science and its role in the social and natural world (c) Evolutionary science Things emerge when something changes that suits the local conditions – it is not ‘optimal’ What sustains is the system /ecology best adapted to the local situation at the time And the future builds on what is already there.. The future cannot be known in advance Change and adaptability require diversity and messiness “All modern sciences are evolutionary sciences and economics is hopelessly behind the times. Evolutionary science is a theory of a process, of ‘cumulative causation’ of an unfolding sequence.” Veblen, 1898

9. Science and its role in the social and natural world (d) Complexity science – how physics accords with evolution;the messy science of open systems Prigogine was intrigued by the question: ‘Why does life ‘mount the incline that matter descends’ (Bergson 1907) Prigogine showed that for open systems, not in equilibrium new characteristics can emerge and new patterns form that are shaped by the particularities of the situation and the past.. (1945) This is tune with evolutionary science and led to the science of complexity

10. Why does it matter what science we use for our worldview? The machine view The ‘free market’ view (equilibrium thermodynamics) Standardise Best practice Plan, predict Cause and effect Economies of scale Reversible change But UK 23rd out of 24 numeracy, 24th out of 24 literacy (OECD, 2013) Current 50-60 year-olds score better than school children Complexity The middle ground – Not too tight, not too loose Principles, but allowing of local variation Trust the market No need for governance But no ‘trickle down’; increasing inequality,; less diversity (e.g. fewer bigger banks), concentration of power; the powerful go unregulated. UK third worst inequality in OECD countries (2014) Most obese people in Europe UK hospices best in the world...

11. Complexity The science of open systems.....

12. Complexity The science of open systems..... Organisations, societies, economies, families are examples of open systems.....

13. Complexity Complexity theory gives a view of organisations, societies and teams as: living/organic, interconnected/systemic, rich, diverse and evolving.... shaped by history and context It provides a worldview/ontological stance, which, if embraced, affects how we see the world, how we think about our role, what methods we use.

14. How does complexity thinking fit with our experience? Has your life gone to plan? What gets in the way?

15. How does complexity thinking fit with ancient worldviews? Upon those that step into the same rivers different and different waters flow…They scatter and …gather…come together…and flow away…approach and depart Heraclitus Emptiness ‘there is no self-defining discrete reality to cause or effect. Forms or feelings are devoid of inherent existence; it is only on the basis of aggregation of subtle elements that forms exist; form can only be understood in relational terms to their constitutive elements.’. Dalai Lama explaining Milarepa Buddhist text, April 2008 • Dao de Jing • Within the rhythms of life, the swinging gateway opens and novelty • emerges spontaneously to revitalise the world • …..whatever is most enduring is ultimately overtaken • in the ceaseless transformation ofthings

16. Complexity theory accords with our experience and with ancient worldviews Complexity theory gives a very similar perspective on life as we conclude from our own life experience. And ancient philosophies, from around the world, reached almost identical conclusions.. Have we chosen ‘the wrong science’ (Newtonian mechanics) to understand human and natural systems? Using the ‘wrong science’ does not make it scientific

17. The nub of complexity thinking – a dance between patterns and events Patterns (institutions, culture, routines, laws, political norms, supply-demand curves, systems, archetypes) Disturbances to patterns (events, chance, deliberate action, variations, shocks, shifting alliances) The path-dependent future systemic; context-specific; path-dependent; non-linear; emergent;

18. Complexity – the middle ground – not too tight, not too loose The world is like a machine? Predictable Standardisable Controllable Clear cause-and-effect chains The world is organic/complex Systemic Context-sensitive Emergent Patterned but not entirely predictable The world is changing radically /chaotic? Unpredictable Uncontrollable New things emerging How do we get the benefits of standardisation without losing the benefits of flexibility? How do we deal with (and spot) the world changing (sometimes radically and fast)

19. Incommensurability Incommensurability... There are no easy answers... Working with one extreme leads to one-sided solutions... Freedom versus Equality Efficiency versus Adaptability Standardisation versus Context-specificity Short-term versus Long-term

20. What to do differently? Complex context analysis Theories of change What does it mean for me?

21. Complex context analysis The past – History/path dependency – events, people, economic and political conditions, social norms etc The present Wide-ranging systemic PESTE Macro to micro and back Relationships/patterns/’events’ The future – Emerging weak signals of change Fore-sighting/scenario planning for critical junctures/tipping points Anticipating

22. How do things change/ how to change things… External – ‘big’ (intentional or not) Tsunami, war, pestilence, climate change, economic shifts, new laws, new technology, ‘big picture’ thinking Internal – top down New leader, new structure, new systems, new technology Bottom up Participate, strengthen relationships and trust, ‘weave’ intentions/shared vision/shared values/shared worldview, seek to work with ‘whole system’, capacity build, collaborate, empower

23. How to decide on approach(es) to change.. Diagnose How stable are things? What can we learn from the dynamics – complex context analysis? Co-design Multiple perspectives What is your power base, what creates your legitimacy? With what combination of top down/bottom up/middle out should you start? Try it out, review and re-design

24. What complexity means to me... If the future is not entirely knowable (albeit not random) then the end cannot justify the means. Each action contributes towards the system, adds to the shaping of the future... So what we do and our values and intentions is what enters ‘the system’ and shapes the future.. Seed the system with good ingredients.... Mindfulness, humility, authenticity He who would do good to another must do it in   Minute Particulars: General Good is the plea of the scoundrel,   hypocrite, and flatterer, For Art and Science cannot exist but in minutely   organized Particulars. William Blake

25. Summary • Worldviews/beliefs shape what we see is important, how we try to manage and change things. Exploring and exposing our and others worldviews is thus a vital aspect of creating change. • The complexity worldview derives from the science of open systems, how physics explains evolution, and emphasises things are: • systemic, shaped by history and context, triggered by variation and messiness, patterned, nonlinear and emergent • Complexity sits in the middle ground between the notions that all goes to plan and all is chaos. • The world is complex whether we embrace it/like it or not, so working with/understanding the nature of that complexity can make approaches more effective.