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Executive Board Meeting 25 May 2005

Review of GDP growth among trading partners, currency exchange rates, equity indices, bond yields, commodity prices, interest rate expectations, inflation rates, employment data, and consumer confidence indicators discussed at the Executive Board Meeting on May 25, 2005.

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Executive Board Meeting 25 May 2005

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  1. Executive Board Meeting25 May 2005

  2. GDP growth among trading partnersGrowth in volume on previous year. Per cent. Actual and projected China1) Global 1) 25 trading partners2) 1) Source: IMF 2) Source: Norges Bank

  3. Quarterly change in GDPUS, euro area and UKGrowth in volume, annualised. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent US UK Euro area Japan Sources: Eurostat, EcoWin\ Office for National Statistics,Bureau of Economic Analysis and Norges Bank

  4. China • GDP grew 9.5 per cent from 2004 Q1 to 2005 Q1 • Growth somewhat more balanced, but still strong investment growth • Growing export surplus • Increased pressure on China to revalue

  5. Forward exchange rate (12-month) Chinese yuanA rising value denotes a depreciating currency. 1.1 2003 – 24.5 2005 Fixed exchange rate against USD Forward exchange rate against USD (12-month) Source: Bloomberg

  6. Developments in international equity indicesTotal return. Indexed, 01.01.04 = 100 Norway, OSEBX Europe, Stoxx Japan, Topix US, S&P 500 Since previous monetary policy meeting Source: EcoWin

  7. Developments in 10-year government bond yields US Norway Germany Source: EcoWin

  8. CPI/HICP (core) in the US, the euro area, and JapanPercentage change on same month previous year US US1) Euro area Japan 1) Personal consumption expenditures less food and energy Source: EcoWin / National statistics

  9. CPI/HICP (core)1) in the UK, Sweden and DenmarkPercentage change on same month previous year Sweden Denmark UK 1) Excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco products Source: EcoWin / National statistics

  10. Interest rate expectations 23 May 2005 UK Norway Sweden Euro area US Sources: Norges Bank and Reuters

  11. Oil price Brent Blend and futures pricesDaily figures, USD per barrel. January 2002 - May 2005 20 April IR 1-05 23 May Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  12. Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude. Daily figures. January 2001 – May 2005 Delivery in 1 month Delivery in 6-7 years Source: EcoWin/ NYMEX

  13. Global commodity prices, in USDWeekly figures. Indices, 2000=100 Metals Commodities for manufacturing Agricultural products excl. food Sources: EcoWin / Economist

  14. CPI-ATE. Total and distributed by imported and domestically produced goods and servicesHistorical and projected IR 1/05 (broken line). 12-month rise. Per cent Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Expected consumer price inflation in 5 yearsPer cent.Quarterly figures.02 Q2 - 05 Q2 Employers' organisations Economists Employees' organisations Source: TNS Gallup

  16. Interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures I-44 (right-hand scale) 24 May 05 Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 20 April 05 Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg

  17. Number of foreigners from new EU countries on assignments in Norway Source: Central Office - Foreign Tax Affairs

  18. Growth in retail trade turnover and the retail sales indexOn same period previous year, February 2003 – December 2004 Turnover statistics Retail sales index Kilder: SSB og Norges Bank

  19. Consumer confidence indicatorUnadjusted and trend (level) Trend Unadjusted Source: TNS Gallup

  20. Credith growth12-month growth. Per cent Source: Norges Bank

  21. House prices from the real estate businessAnnualised 3-month centred moving rise. Seasonally adjusted figures. Per cent Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF) and Norges Bank

  22. Housing starts (last 12 months)In thousands Source: Statistics Norway

  23. Commercial building startsArea (1000 m2)3-month moving average. Jan 2000 – Jan 2005 Manufac-turing Retail trade Property management and commercial services Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  24. 3-month money market rate, import-weighted krone exchange rate (I-44)1)2), projections for the CPI-ATE and output gap in the baseline scenario in IR 1/05Quarterly figures. 2001 Q1 – 2008 Q4 Interest rate (left-hand scale) CPI-ATE Output gap Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) (right-hand scale) 1) A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate. 2) The figures for 2005 Q1 are based on the average up to 10 March. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  25. Executive Board Meeting25 May 2005

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