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Unveiling Future Energy Demand Trends: Insights from Energy Modeling Forum Study

Discusses initial findings from the Energy Modeling Forum Study on reshaping energy demand, policy implications, and the role of efficiency and renewable energy. Highlights the challenges in modeling energy demand and the importance of policy decisions.

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Unveiling Future Energy Demand Trends: Insights from Energy Modeling Forum Study

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  1. Efficiency and the Shape of Future Energy Demand: Initial Findings from Energy Modeling Forum Study 25 Hillard Huntington Energy Modeling Forum Stanford, CA International Energy Workshop Venice, Italy June 17, 2009

  2. Today’s Discussion • Rediscovery of energy efficiency improvements • Organization/purpose of EMF’s effort • Participants/ modeling approaches • Early discussions • Had expected to compare preliminary results but not enough standardization • End-use rather than primary consumption efficiency

  3. Models Scrambling to Catch-Up to Policy “Winds” • Most models represent climate change policy as a single target. • Policymakers do not trust a single economic policy. • Nations impose additional goals: renewable standards, energy efficiency targets. • Political attraction: reduce gap between target and actual; lower price effects.

  4. Lumen-Hours per Kilowatt Hours Astronomicalgrowth in lighting services

  5. Policy Climate Raises Interesting Issues • How quickly will energy/power demand grow? • How much efficiency and at what cost? • Do efficiency/price policies complement or substitute?

  6. EMF - Communication Bridge Between Modelers and Policymakers • Working group adopts common assumptions for different scenarios. • Decentralized model simulations at home institutions. • Forum meetings compare/contrast key results. • Focus on insights for decisions rather than numbers for models.

  7. Where We Are in the Process • Working group has met twice & revised scenarios once. • Will meet again in October in Washington DC. • Plan to develop preliminary conclusions for Spring 2010 discussion. • Summary report issued soon thereafter.

  8. Approaches Offer Different Perspectives • Economic-technology models provide considerable detail (EIA, CIMS) • Economic-market models represent competition & market interactions (IA climate change models) • Both differ from “McKinsey” accounting exercises • More than a technical decision about which equipment • Behavior is often critical • Markets interact, technologies compete & sum < parts

  9. EMF 25 Models • Brookhaven (US Markal) • Brookings Institution (McKibbin-Wilcoxen model) • Central Research Institute for Electric Power Industry (Japan) • Centre for Energy Policy & Economics, Zurich • Charles River Associates • CIRED, France (IMACLIM) • Joint Global Change Research Institute, U. of Maryland • MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change • MITRE (MARKAL) • Onlocation, Inc. (NEMS-GRPA) • Research Triangle Institute (ADAGE) • Resources for the Future (HAIKU electricity model) • Simon Fraser University (CIMS) • University of Maryland Inforum Project (LIFT) • US Energy Information Administration (NEMS) First-round resultsFirst-round results (technology model)

  10. Began With Carbon Fee Scenario • Set next year at $30 per tonne CO2 (2007$) • Fee (inflation-adjusted) rises by 5% per year • Ignored recycling of tax revenues • Also considered comparable general energy tax and oil tax scenarios • New scenarios will add standards/subsidies (w & w/o carbon fee)

  11. Carbon Fee Accelerates Electrification • Direct fuel prices rise more than power prices • More electrification when policy allows nuclear or other carbon-free sources if they are economical • More electrification in Switzerland than in USA • More CO2 reductions with carbon than energy or oil tax

  12. Price Elasticities: Electricity

  13. Price Elasticities: Transportation

  14. Next EMF 25 Meeting • October 2009 in Washington DC • Compare standard/subsidy cases (w & w/o carbon fee) • Continued progress on data for energy efficiency cost curves (LBNL & ACEE) & contrast with McKinsey • Cross-country differences in energy productivity at a detailed sectoral level for OECD countries (EU-KLEMS database). • 1995-2005: 19 countries/40 sectors • 1980-2005: 11 countries/30 sectors

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