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Executive Board meeting 15 December 2004

This report discusses the GDP growth rates in the US, UK, Japan, and Euro area, as well as interest rate expectations in these regions. It also covers other economic indicators such as CPI, exchange rates, oil prices, and consumer price inflation projections.

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Executive Board meeting 15 December 2004

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  1. Executive Board meeting15 December 2004

  2. GDP. Growth in volume on previous quarterPer cent. Seasonally adjusted. 02 Q1 – 04 Q3 US UK Japan Euro area Sources: EcoWin, Statistics Japan, National Statistics (UK), EUR-OP/Eurostat, Consensus Economics and Bureau of Economic Analysis (US)

  3. Interest rate expectationsActual developments and expected key rate at 28 October and 13 December 13 December 28 October UK Euro area US Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  4. Core CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area and the UK12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 - Oct 04 US1) Euro area US2) UK 1)CPI 2) Personal consumption expenditure deflator, excluding food and energy Sources: EcoWin/National statistics

  5. International effective exchange ratesIndex. 1999 = 100. Daily figures. 1 Jan 03 – 13 Dec 04 UK US Norway Euro area Sweden 1)A rising curve denotes a stronger exchange rate Sources: Bank of England/EcoWin

  6. Oil price Brent BlendUSD per barrel. Daily figures Futures price 28 Oct (IR 3/04) 13 Dec Sources: Norges Bank, Telerate and IPE

  7. Oil futures pricesUSD per barrel light crude (West Texas). Daily figures. 1 Jan 01 – 13 Dec 04 Delivery in 1 month Delivery in 6-7 years Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin/NYMEX

  8. CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 3/04 (broken line).12-month rise. Per cent Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) Norges Bank's estimates. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  9. Experts' expectations of consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years aheadPer cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 – 04 Q4 5 years ahead 2 years ahead Source: TNS Gallup

  10. Developments in the krone exchange rate1) (I-44)Daily figures. 1 Jan 02 – 14 Dec 04 Stronger exchange rate Since previous monetary policy meeting Weaker exchange rate 1)A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

  11. Interest rate expectations in Norway.Actual and expected developments in the key rate and the interest rate differential against trading partners at 28 October and 13 December 2004. 2 Jan 03 – 1 Aug 06 13 December 28 October Key rate in Norway Interest rate differential against trading partners Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  12. Index of commodity consumption1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 02 - Oct 04 2004 2003 2002 Source: Statistics Norway

  13. Consumer confidence indicatorUnadjusted figures. 99 Q1 – 04 Q4 Personal financial situation Total Norwegian economy Sources: TNS Gallup and Norges Bank

  14. Overnight stays at hotelsMonthly figures. Seasonally adjusted 3-month average. Jan 01 - Sep 04 Source: Statistics Norway

  15. Estimated and actual investment in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport Value. In millions of NOK 2005 2004 2003 2002 Previous year Final figures Same year Source: Statistics Norway

  16. Total debt mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households and non-financial enterprises (C2).12-month rise. Aug 01 – Oct 04 C2 households C3 Mainland-Norway C2 non-financial enterprises Source: Norges Bank

  17. Main aggregates in quarterly national accounts and projected main macroeconomic aggregates in Inflation Report 3/04 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  18. Employment (LFS)Seasonally adjusted. In 1000s 2002 2003 2004 Source: Statistics Norway

  19. House pricesNEF/ECON (January 1998–November 2004) and Statistics Norway (98 Q1– 04 Q3). Percentage rise on same period previous year SN NEF Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF) and Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EFF)

  20. Projections for the output gap1)Annual figures. Per cent. 1980 – 2004. Graph from Inflation Report 3/04 1) The output gap measures the difference between actual and potential mainland GDP. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  21. Assumptions for the money market rate and the krone exchange rate (I-44) 3-month money market rate Forward exchange rate 28 October (IR 3/04) Forward interest rate 28 October (IR 3/04) Forward exchange rate 14 December Import-weighted exchange rate, I-441) Forward interest rate 14 December 1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate. Source: Norges Bank

  22. Movements in EUR/USD1)Daily figures. 1 Jan 03 – 13 Dec 04 Dollar per euro 1)A rising curve denotes a weaker dollar exchange rate. Source: EcoWin

  23. Interest rate increases in this business cycle 1) Calculated as a weighted average of EUR, SEK, GBP and USD.On 31 December 2003 this interest rate was 2.31 per cent. Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

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