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Congressional and Senate Elections in Missouri

Congressional and Senate Elections in Missouri. Congressional Elections. Underlying dynamics MO no longer a bellwether in presidential elections (?) reapportionment and redistricting potential openings for challengers especially in 3 rd , 4 th , 5 th , 6 th

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Congressional and Senate Elections in Missouri

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  1. Congressional and Senate Elections in Missouri

  2. Congressional Elections • Underlying dynamics • MO no longer a bellwether in presidential elections (?) • reapportionment and redistricting • potential openings for challengers • especially in 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th • but MCs pick voters before voters pick MCs • From Obscurity to Oblivion • large (751,000), inorganic districts

  3. Redistricting • 2002-2010 • 2012-2020 http://

  4. Candidate Match Ups

  5. Fundraising

  6. National Congressional Picture • very few competitive seats • RCP: 26 toss ups • 19 lean Democrat, 16 lean GOP • NYT: 22 toss ups • 28 lean Democrat, 33 lean GOP • Sabato: 14 toss ups • 20 lean Democrat, 23 lean GOP

  7. MO Senate Race Claire McCaskill Todd Akin U. S. Army; Master of Divinity MO House (1989-2000) U. S. House (2001-2012) 63% of vote on average won 6-way GOP primary Akin: 36% ($2.2 million) Brunner 30% ($7.4 million) Steelman 29.2% ($1.4 million) • MO House (1983-1988) • Jackson Co. prosecutor (1993-1998) • MO Auditor (1999-2007) • 2004 candidate for governor • 2006 defeated Jim Talent • 49.6% to 47.3%

  8. A Competitive Environment • MO leans GOP at presidential level • GOP holds 6/8 House seats • GOP has large majorities in both state legislative chambers • but … • popular incumbent Democrat in governor’s mansion • McCaskill is incumbent • $3.5 million on hand v. $531,600 (mid June) • MO Senate races tend to be competitive • 53.7% since 1990

  9. Once having given a pig an enema • “legitimate rape” comment (8/19/12) • Akin had led in 8 previous public polls (RCP) • +5% • McCaskill hadn’t led since 2011 • “most vulnerable senator” (USNWR) • McCaskill has led in 7/8 polls since (RCP) • +4.6 • “likely Democrat” (Cook Report)

  10. What Next? • McCaskill has: • significant monetary advantage • and growing: $5.8 million in second quarter • hard-hitting ads • “what will he say next” • Akin has: • stared down GOP establishment • new endorsements • Newt, Santorum, DeMint, Bond, Blunt, Talent

  11. State Elections, 2012

  12. Missouri Gubernatorial Race

  13. Missouri Gubernatorial Race As of the end of September: • Nixon had $6.3 million cash on hand • Spence had $1.45 millioncash on hand

  14. Party Composition of the Missouri Senate, 2001-2011

  15. Party Composition of the Missouri House, 2001-2011

  16. Why It is Unlikely Control of the Missouri General Assembly Will Change

  17. Uncontested Seats in the Missouri General Assembly, 2012

  18. Uncontested Seats in the Missouri Senate, 2012 • 2002-2010 majority party vote in 2012 uncontested Senate seats: Mean 68.9%, Median 66.4%, Minimum 56.3%, Maximum 89.0% • Number of uncontested seats that are competitive (majority party has less that 55% of vote based on elections from 2002 to 2010): 0

  19. Uncontested Seats in the Missouri House, 2012 • 2002-2010 majority party vote in 2012 uncontested House seats: Mean 68.7%, Median 65.4%, Minimum 52.5%, Maximum 96.8% • Number of uncontested seats that are competitive (majority party has less that 55% of vote based on elections from 2002 to 2010): 8 (5 Republican seats, 3 Democratic seats)

  20. Additional figures: - partyid and the vote by election - partyid and the vote, the range - turnout - gender gap - decision time - normal vote

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