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Energy Security and Foreign Policy: Challenges and Strategies for the United States

This text explores the intersection of energy security and foreign policy in the United States, focusing on topics such as nuclear power, large-scale accidents, national security strategies, and the impact of global oil production capacity. It delves into the complexities of maintaining energy demands, navigating international relations, and addressing potential vulnerabilities in the energy sector.

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Energy Security and Foreign Policy: Challenges and Strategies for the United States

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  1. Part 1: Energy, Foreign Policy, and our Future

  2. Petroleum in the United States

  3. Nuclear Power and Large-Scale Accidents • The insurance industry refuses to fully insure it • Nuclear industry would not exist without the 1959 Price-Anderson Act, limited liability in an accident • 2001 renewal set limit of $9 billion per accident, only 2% from the insurance industry and 98% from us • Chernobyl cost $350 billion • NRC estimated $300 billion for worst-case accident

  4. 50 100

  5. Percentage of national biocapacity currently being consumed • World as a whole: 120% • World’s 10 richest nations: 185% • World’s 10 poorest nations: 37%

  6. National Security Strategyof the United States We will disrupt and destroy terrorist organizations by defending the United States, the American people, and our interests at home and abroad by identifying anddestroying the threat before it reaches our borders. While the United States will constantly strive to enlist the support of the international community,we will not hesitate to act alone, if necessary, to exercise our right of self defenseby acting preemptivelyagainst such terrorists, to prevent them from doing harm against our people and our country; and denying further sponsorship, support, and sanctuary to terrorists by convincing or compelling states to accept their sovereign responsibilities.

  7. National Security Strategyof the United States We will disrupt and destroy terrorist organizations by supporting moderate and modern government,especially in the Muslim world, to ensure that the conditions and ideologies that promote terrorism do not find fertile ground in any nation;

  8. “The American people continue to demand plentiful and cheap energy without sacrifice or inconvenience. But emerging technologies are not yet commercially viable to fill shortages and will not be for some time.” -- Baker Institute of Public Policy, report to VP Dick Cheney, 2001

  9. “Strong economic growth across the globe and new global demands for more energy have meant the end of sustained surplus capacity in hydrocarbon fuels and the beginning of capacity limitations. In fact, the world is currently precariously close to utilizing all of its available global oil production capacity.” -- Baker Institute of Public Policy, report to VP Dick Cheney, 2001

  10. “Gulf allies are finding their domestic and foreign policy interests increasingly at odds with U.S. strategic considerations . . . evidence suggests that investment is not being made in a timely enough manner to increase production capacity in line with growing global needs. A trend toward anti-Americanism could affect regional leaders’ ability to cooperate with the United States in the energy area.” -- Baker Institute of Public Policy, report to VP Dick Cheney, 2001

  11. “The resulting tight markets have increased U.S. and global vulnerability to disruption and provided adversaries undue potential influence over the price of oil. Iraq has become a key "swing" producer, posing a difficult situation for the U.S. government.” -- Baker Institute of Public Policy, report to VP Dick Cheney, 2001

  12. “Iraq remains a destabilizing influence to US allies in the Middle East, as well as to regional and global order, and to the flow of oil to international markets.” -- Baker Institute of Public Policy, report to VP Dick Cheney, 2001

  13. Part 2: Iraq and the West, 1918-2003

  14. Gen. Wesley Clark: “There was a concerted effort during the fall of 2001, starting immediately after 9/11, to pin 9/11 and the terrorism problem on Saddam Hussein.” Tim Russert: “By who? Who did that?” Clark: “Well, it came from the White House… I was on CNN, I got a call saying, “You got to say this is connected…” NBC’s Meet the Press, June 15, 2003

  15. The 2003 Iraq War: "For bureaucratic reasons we settled on one issue, weapons of mass destruction, because it was the one reason everyone could agree on." - Vanity Fair, quoting Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Secretary Of Defense

  16. The best way to deal with the problem of “rogue states” is not to create or assist them: • Greek dictators • Ferdinand Marcos, Philippines • Francois Duvalier, Haiti • Gulf kingdoms • Anastasio Somoza, Nicaragua • Guatemalan strongmen Non-oil exporter • Mobuto Sese Seko, Zaire • Brazilian junta Oil exporter, • Gen. Suharto, Indonesiabut friendly to US • Gen. Augusto Pinochet, Chile • South Africa’s apartheid regime • Shah of Iran • Afghan Mujahedeen

  17. Iraq and the West “Our armies do not come into your cities and lands as conquerors or enemies, but as liberators. Your wealth has been stripped of you by unjust men… The people of Baghdad shall flourish under institutions that are in consonance with their sacred laws… The Arab race may rise once more to greatness.” - General F.S. Maude, British commander in Iraq, 1917, after defeating the Ottoman Turks.

  18. Iraq and the West: 1. After World War I • 1917: British take Baghdad during WWI • 1918: France gets League of Nations mandate for Syria & Lebanon, Britain gets it for Iraq & Palestine • 1925: Turkish Petroleum Co. (under British control) gets oil concession for all of Iraq for 20 pence per ton • 1928: Two US oil companies that today are joined as Exxon-Mobil get 24% share in Turkish Petroleum – renamed International Petroleum Co. - IPC

  19. Iraq and the West: 2. “Independence” • 1932: Iraq is granted “independence” under British-backed King Faisal I • 1941: Unrest; Britain invades Iraq, installs new king • 1951: Mossadeq of Iran nationalizes British Petroleum • 1953: Mossadeq overthrown by US in CIA-led coup; Shah is installed as Iran’s dictator

  20. 1951

  21. 3. Foreign control of Iraq’s oil • 1958: Nationalist Abdel Karim Qasim overthrows Iraqi king, declares that “we have liberated the country from a corrupt group which was installed by imperialism.” • 1958: U.S. and Britain prepare to invade Iraq, but the new regime promises not to disturb foreign oil interests • 1963: IPC reaps profits of $323M in a single year, on total investment of $50M

  22. 4. Ba’athist era begins • 1963: Qasim overthrown by Ba’ath-army coalition; coup reportedly “inspired by CIA.” • 1963: New rulers give new oil concessions to IPC • 1967: Iraq, U.S. break relations after Israeli-Arab war; concessions are taken back

  23. 5. Saddam takes over • 1968: Saddam Hussein becomes vice-president and, increasingly, the real power in Iraq • 1972: Iraq nationalizes the IPC and turns to France and USSR for technical assistance and credit • 1973: Iraq helps lead Arab oil embargo against the West • 1973-1990: Increased oil revenues spark rapid increase in Iraq’s standard of living, infrastructure investment, education, agricultural production, etc.

  24. 1979

  25. 6. Iran erupts; US sides with Iraq in war • 1979: Saddam Hussein becomes president of Iraq, spends 8.4% of the nation’s GDP on military buildup • 1979: Shah Reza Pahlavi is overthrown and the Islamic Republic of Iran is established • 1980: Iraq invades Iran; Iraq and US secretly agree to re-establish diplomatic relations

  26. 7. US ignores Iraq’s gas warfare • 1983 (Nov): BBC reports on Iraq’s use of chemical weapons • 1983 (Dec): Presidential envoy Donald Rumsfeld meets with Saddam to propose oil pipeline deal

  27. 7. Continued support for Iraq • 1984: U.S. State Dept. condemns Iraq’s continued use of gas warfare against Iranian troops; Rumsfeld goes back to Iraq to push the pipeline deal • 1984: US and Iraq officially re-establish relations • 1986: US casts sole vote against UN statement condemning Iraq’s use of mustard gas

  28. 8. The Iran-Iraq war ends • 1984-88: US, Britain, and France supply massive amounts of military aid to Iraq • 1986-88: US helps Iraq with missile technology, satellite data and battle planning – and attacks Iranian ships • 1980s: US sends cultures of anthrax and other microbial species that were later used in bioweapons program • 1988: Iran-Iraq war ends in virtual stalemate; 1,000,000 dead

  29. 9. Buildup to another war • 1990: Iraq, with $80B war debt and depressed oil prices, protests Kuwait’s “slant drilling” under Iraqi territory • 1990, July: US ambassador tells Saddam: “We have no opinion on Arab-Arab conflicts like your border disagreement with Kuwait. All we hope is that these issues are resolved quickly.” • 1990, Aug.: Iraq invades Kuwait

  30. 9. The Gulf War and sanctions • 1991: Gulf War: US expels Iraq from Kuwait, leaves Saddam in power, imposes sanctions through the UN • 1991-98: More than 500,000 excess deaths of Iraqi children from war, the resulting infrastructure collapse, and sanctions (UN estimate) • 1997: Chief UN inspector reportsthat 93% of Iraq’s weapons capacity is destroyed. He is replaced at US’s urging • 1998: UN Inspectors are withdrawn in preparation for heavy US-British bombing. They don’t return for almost 5 years

  31. 2002

  32. 10. “Mission accomplished” • 1991-99: France, Russia, China, and Italy sign deals to develop Iraq’s oilfields if and when sanctions are lifted • 1991-2003: US-led sanctions on equipment imports hold Iraq’s oil production down to only a fraction of its potential • Sept. 11, 2001: Donald Rumsfeld orders Pentagon to work on plans for an attack on Iraq. • Mar. 20, 2003: US armed forces invade and occupy Iraq • May 26, 2003: Iraq governor Paul Bremer declares the country “open for business.”

  33. National Security Strategyof the United States We will promote economic growth and economic freedom beyond America’s shores. pro-growth legal and regulatory policies; tax policies—particularly lower marginal tax rates—that improve incentives for work and investment; strong financial systems thatallow capital to be put to its most efficient use; sound fiscal policies tosupport business activity; investments in health and education thatimprove the well-being and skills of the labor forceand population as a whole; and free tradethat provides new avenues for growth

  34. Postwar Iraq: Contracts Halliburton Bechtel MCI (Worldcom) Stevedoring Services of America Creative Associates International Dyncorp Fluor Corporation Parsons Corporation

  35. Part 3: The Defense Industry

  36. National Security Strategyof the United States The United States must and will maintain the capability to defeat any attempt by an enemy—whether a state or non-state actor—to impose its will on the United States, our allies, or ourOur forces will be strong enough to dissuade potential adversaries frompursuing a military build-up in hopes ofsurpassing, or equaling, the power of the United States.

  37. Supplemental appropriation for Iraq war

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