Summary of DTC EC Meeting 26 th August 2010

1. Summary of DTC EC Meeting26th August 2010 Bill Kuo

2. DTC EC Meeting – 26th August 2010 • First face-to-face meeting for the DTC EC • Who are present from EC: • Don Berchoff, Louis Uccellini (NWS) • Sandy MacDonald (OAR) • John Egentowich (Air Force) • Roger Wakimoto (NCAR) • Guest: Steve Payne (Navy) • DTC Management (Kuo, Nance, Brown, Koch) • DTC Management Board (Lapenta, Rugg, Toepfer, Surgi)

3. Agenda Date August 26, 2010 Agenda Meeting Objectives: Achieve Consensus DTC Vision and Priorities   8:00 – 8:30       Coffee  8:30 – 8:45       Welcome and Overview of Meeting Objectives (Don Berchoff)  8:45 – 9:45      Strategic Planning for DTC (Bill Kuo) 9:45 – 10:15      NWS and U.S. Air Force Focus Area (Don Berchoff and John Egentowich) 10:15 – 10:30     Break10:30 – 11:15     DTC: Facilitating Research into Operation   (Louis Uccellini and Roger Wakimoto)11:15 – 12:00     New Directions for Atmospheric Modeling:   (Sandy MacDonald and Steve Payne) 12:00 – 1:30      Working Lunch: Executive Session: Decisions and  Implementation Strategy (All)

4. Summary of EC Meeting: • The DTC EC endorsed the on-going DTC activities and budget allocation for FY2010, and considered them consistent with the sponsoring agencies’ expectation. • The EC approved the DTC preliminary work plan and budget allocations for FY2011, which will follow closely those of FY2010. • Two task areas were selected for consideration for augmentation, shall additional resources become available. This includes: DET and NEMS. DTC was asked to provide a plan and budget estimate. • Sandy MacDonald considered GPU a very important emerging technology for NWP. He strongly recommended DTC to prepare the WRF community to migrate toward such technology. • DTC is charged to come up with a strategy on WRF-GPU. • May consider organizing a meeting on this topic

5. HFIP and HWRF • Quantifiable significant improvement in the skill of hurricane prediction is a major milestone for the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP). This is a NOAA priority. The EC tasked DTC management to develop a Hurricane Prediction Test Plan, in collaboration with HFIP program office. • Louis was thinking a HWRF-AHW test plan similar to core tests for Rapid Refresh. • The consensus is that hurricane prediction is moving toward multiple model ensemble. • DTC needs to help EMC improve the performance of HWRF, and also help HFIP with multi-model ensemble prediction.

6. Global modeling • Sandy MacDonald did not support DTC getting involved with global modeling. Possible reasons are: • ESRL has an agreement with NCEP for operational use of FIM • Global modeling is now taking a new turn: Earth System Predictive Capability • DTC is already spreading too thin • Not obvious that DTC will receive significant new funding in the next few years to migrate into this area • Earth System Predictive Capability: • Multiple agencies collaboration (NWS, OAR, Navy, Air Force, NSF, DOE, … etc) • From 1 day to 30 years – seamless weather & climate prediction

7. Model framework • There are still major disagreements between NCAR and NCEP • Louis would like NCAR to move toward NEMS for its current and future modeling systems • Holland, Klemp, and Skamarock did not agree • There are no “obvious” benefits for research community to migrate toward NEMS • DTC needs to find a path for the two communities: • The large research community that is still actively using ARW • The EMC modeling suite which are being migrated toward NEMS • DTC is charged to organize a software engineering meeting to identify a viable “path” for R2O and O2R

8. Performance Measure • DTC needs to have quantifiable performance measure. Our sponsors need to know that they are getting their money worth with DTC • The DTC MB is charged to come up with the measure • We need to come up with a “draft” for DTC MB’s consideration (before someone comes up with something that we cannot live with). • In-kind contributions to DTC should be accounted for: • NCEP/EMC staff • NWS – DTC liaison (Naomi) • MMM – WRF support • Air Force (?)

9. Funding • The FY2011federal budget is not good. All agencies are asked by Obama to set their FY2011 budget at 95% of their FY2010 level. • We should consider doing very well if we can get what we had in FY2010. This will require strong support from high levels in NOAA and Air Force. • DTC EC agreed that DTC’s budget should increase as DTC is asked to take on more responsibilities: • Louis argued that NSF should provide a lot more support for DTC (than just the $100K for the DTC Visitor Program) • Louis suggested DTC having a “grant program” – to support research to operations transition • DTC EC will discuss this with NSF • DTC EC will also seek additional support from FAA, DOE and FAA

10. DTC MB/SAB Meeting21-23 September 2010

11. DTC SAB Meeting • This is the first time DTC Science Advisory Board SAB) meet • DTC SAB will do a thorough review of on-going DTC activities, and provide comments and recommendations: • Is the on-going effort appropriate for the DTC? • Are the resources allocated to the tasks appropriate? • Comments and suggestions on the DTC FY2011 work plan • Comments and suggestions on the future direction for DTC tasks • Some DTC SAB members consider DTC is taking on too many tasks, not focused, and under-funded. One wrote: “… DTC is on disaster course without focus on key issues…”

12. Concluding remarks: • The DTC MB/SAB meeting is a very important one to all of us. • The recommendations from SAB will be forwarded to DTC MB and EC, and have significant influence on the budget for DTC, and resource allocation within the DTC. • DTC MB will have a careful review of the FY 2011 preliminary task plan and budget. Funding strategies will be developed for FY 2011 based on SAB reviews and the MB discussions. • So, please don’t take it lightly.