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Meteorology 415

Meteorology 415. Contest 2 Columbia, SC and Fort Myers, FL October 18, 2011. Columbia, SC. Columbia, SC.

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Meteorology 415

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  1. Meteorology 415 Contest 2 Columbia, SC and Fort Myers, FL October 18, 2011

  2. Columbia, SC

  3. Columbia, SC FAA Identifier:  CAE Lat/Long:  33-56-19.8000N / 081-07-10.3000W33-56.330000N / 081-07.171667W33.9388333 / -81.1195278(estimated) Elevation:  236 ft. / 71.9 m (surveyed) Variation:  05W (1985) From city:  5 miles SW of COLUMBIA, SC

  4. Columbia Observations • KCAE 181756Z 12010KT 10SM SCT037 BKN130 27/16 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP078 T02670161 • 10272 20172 58035= • KCAE 181856Z 14006KT 10SM SCT037 BKN130 26/16 A2974 RMK AO2 SLP067 T02610161= • KCAE 181956Z 12005KT 6SM -RA FEW060 SCT090 BKN110 24/17 A2973 RMK AO2 RAB39 • SLP064 P0000 T02440172= • KCAE 182027Z 15019G25KT 1 1/4SM +RA FEW012 BKN028 OVC090 23/18 A2975 RMK AO2 • RAE1959B26 P0000= • KCAE 182027Z 15019G25KT 1 1/4SM +RA FEW012 BKN028 OVC090 23/18A2975= • KCAE 182053Z 18004KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC049 21/19 A2975 RMK AO2 • RAE1959B26 P0042 RVRNO= • KCAE 182056Z 00000KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC045 21/19 A2974 RMK AO2 • RAE1959B26 SLP070 P0047 60047 T02060189 55008 RVRNO= • KCAE 182053Z 18004KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC049 21/19 A2975= • KCAE 182056Z 00000KT 3/4SM +RA BR SCT020 BKN034 OVC045 21/19 A2974= • KCAE 182123Z 00000KT 3SM -RA BR BKN023 OVC065 21/18 A2973 RMK AO2 P0013= • KCAE 182130Z 00000KT 2SM +RA BR BKN023 BKN050 OVC065 21/19 A2973 RMK AO2 P0016 • $= • KCAE 182156Z 00000KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW029 BKN046 OVC060 20/19 A2971 RMK AO2 • SLP060 P0026 T02000189 $= • KCAE 182256Z 06006KT 3SM +RA BR SCT004 BKN019 OVC034 21/19 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP049 • P0004 T02060189 $= • KCAE 182356Z 09007KT 5SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN009 OVC029 21/19 A2968 RMK AO2 SLP048 • P0004 60081 T02060189 10272 20200 56022 $= • KCAE 190056Z 09004KT 8SM BR BKN016 OVC039 21/19 A2966 RMK AO2 RAE44 SLP041 • P0001 T02060189 $= • KCAE 190056Z COR 09004KT 6SM BR BKN016 OVC039 21/19 A2966 RMK AO2 RAE44 SLP041 • P0001 T02060189 $= • KCAE 190056Z 09004KT 8SM BR BKN016 OVC039 21/19 A2966= • KCAE 190156Z 05003KT 3SM +RA BR FEW005 SCT009 OVC018 20/19 A2964 RMK AO2 RAB11 • SLP035 P0028 T02000189 $= • KCAE 190256Z 00000KT 3SM -RA BR OVC008 21/19 A2962 RMK AO2 CIG 006V010 SLP029 • P0005 60034 T02060189 56019 $=

  5. Columbia Observations • KCAE 190256Z 00000KT 3SM -RA BR OVC008 21/19 A2962 RMK AO2 CIG 006V010 SLP029 • P0005 60034 T02060189 56019 $= • KCAE 190356Z 02005KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW005 BKN010 OVC014 19/18 A2960 RMK AO2 • SLP020 P0001 T01940178 $= • KCAE 190456Z 00000KT 2 1/2SM BR OVC005 19/19 A2956 RMK AO2 RAE56 SLP009 P0001 • T01940189 402720139 $= • KCAE 190523Z 00000KT 2SM BR OVC003 19/19 A2956 RMK AO2 P0002 $= • KCAE 190556Z VRB03KT 2SM -RA BR OVC003 19/19 A2955 RMK AO2 RAB27E37B55 SLP003 • P0002 60038 T01940189 10206 20194 56025 $= • KCAE 190619Z 03003KT 3SM RA BR OVC005 19/18 A2954 RMK AO2 P0012 $= • KCAE 190656Z 04003KT 6SM -RA BR OVC006 19/18 A2952 RMK AO2 SLP993 P0019 • T01940183 $= • KCAE 190756Z 05004KT 10SM OVC006 19/18 A2949 RMK AO2 RAE56 SLP983 P0000 • T01890183 $= • KCAE 190856Z 06005KT 9SM OVC006 19/18 A2946 RMK AO2 RAB31E40 CIG 004V008 SLP974 • P0000 60019 T01890178 56030 $= • KCAE 190937Z 07005KT 5SM -RA BR OVC004 18/17 A2945 RMK AO2 RAB06 P0001 $= • KCAE 190956Z 06006KT 2SM RA BR OVC004 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 RAB06 SLP968 P0007 • T01830172 $= • KCAE 191030Z 07004KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 P0003= • KCAE 191056Z 04005KT 3SM -RA BR OVC007 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 SLP967 P0003 • T01780172= • KCAE 191124Z 05004KT 2SM -RA BR BKN007 OVC015 18/17 A2944 RMK AO2 P0000= • KCAE 191139Z 07005KT 1SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN010 OVC015 18/17 A2943 RMK AO2 P0002 • RVRNO= • KCAE 191141Z 07005KT 3/4SM -RA BR SCT007 BKN010 OVC015 18/17 A2943 RMK AO2 • P0002 RVRNO= • KCAE 191156Z 06004KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN005 BKN010 OVC039 18/17 A2942 RMK AO2 • SLP962 P0002 60031 70150 T01780167 10194 20178 56013=

  6. Synoptic Pattern

  7. Surface Analysis

  8. Surface Analysis

  9. Radar

  10. Verifications

  11. Standings for Columbia

  12. Standings for Columbia

  13. Up Close and Personal

  14. Columbia – Lessons Learned • Warm advection is a much more efficient lifting mechanism than a wedge of cold advection. • Check water temperatures offshore to get a sense of the quantity of moisture available. • Convection requires cooling aloft, a massive warm advection will stabilize upper levels.

  15. Fort Myers, FL

  16. Fort Myers, FL FAA Identifier:  FMY Lat/Long:  26-35-11.8000N / 081-51-47.7000W26-35.196667N / 081-51.795000W26.5866111 / -81.8632500(estimated) Elevation:  17 ft. / 5.2 m (surveyed) Variation:  03W (1990) From city:  3 miles S of FORT MYERS, FL

  17. Fort Myers Observations • KFMY 181753Z 13013G21KT 4SM RA BR BKN110 23/22 A2968 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP052 P0020 60065 • T02280217 10239 20228 58038= • KFMY 181853Z 14011G19KT 5SM RA BR BKN110 24/22 A2965 RMK AO2 SLP043 P0015 T02390222= • KFMY 181953Z 15008G18KT 10SM -RA FEW011 SCT050 BKN110 24/23 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW SLP033 • P0012 T02440228= • KFMY 182022Z 12012G18KT 5SM VCTS RA BR FEW014 SCT055 OVC090 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW AND • W TSB16 P0001= • KFMY 182032Z 14015G23KT 2 1/2SM RA BR SCT012 BKN080 OVC100 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW AND • W TSB16E31 P0003= • KFMY 182040Z 14013G20KT 2SM VCTS +RA BR FEW012 BKN070 OVC090 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W • TSB16E31B34 P0007= • KFMY 182049Z 13007G16KT 1SM VCTS +RA BR FEW012 BKN037 OVC075 24/23 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT NE • AND W TSB16E31B34 P0017= • KFMY 182053Z 10010KT 1SM VCTS +RA BR FEW012 BKN033 OVC095 24/23 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W-NE • TSB16E31B34 SLP023 P0022 60049 T02440233 56020= • KFMY 182111Z 10023G34KT 3/4SM VCTS +RA BR FEW017 OVC026 24/23 A2953 RMK AO2 PK WND 10034/2111 • PRESFR P0031= • KFMY 182121Z 15015G35KT 3/4SM +RA BR BKN015 OVC024 24/23 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 LTG • DSNT N TSE15 P0058= • KFMY 182125Z 22009G27KT 180V240 1/2SM +RA FG BKN013 BKN018 OVC024 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND • 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG DSNT N AND W TSE15 PRESRR P0070= • KFMY 182132Z 22014G24KT 1/4SM +RA FG BKN009 OVC016 24/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT • 2109 LTG DSNT N AND W TSE15 P0109= • KFMY 182147Z 21013G23KT 1SM RA BR BKN011 OVC016 25/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT • 2109 LTG DSNT NE TSE15 P0171= • KFMY 182151Z 21010G23KT 3SM RA BR OVC011 25/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG • DSNT NE TSE15 P0173= • KFMY 182153Z 22009G23KT 3SM -RA BR OVC011 25/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 10035/2113 WSHFT 2109 LTG • DSNT NE TSE15 SLP026 P0173 T02500233= • KFMY 182209Z 20014G22KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN011 BKN014 OVC037 25/24 A2960 RMK AO2 P0003= • KFMY 182216Z 20016G28KT 5SM -RA BR SCT011 OVC039 25/23 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 LTG DSNT • NE AND NW P0003= • KFMY 182224Z 20014G25KT 4SM -RA BR BKN011 OVC039 25/23 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 LTG DSNT • NE AND NW P0003= • KFMY 182227Z 20011G24KT 4SM RA BR SCT011 BKN039 OVC047 25/23 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 • LTG DSNT NW P0004= • KFMY 182253Z 20014G22KT 5SM -RA BR FEW015 BKN028 OVC034 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 21028/2211 • SLP029 P0004 T02560239= • KFMY 182303Z 19013G24KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW014 BKN030 OVC040 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 VIS 1 1/4V4 • P0003= • KFMY 182310Z 19012G19KT 3SM RA BR FEW015 BKN027 OVC032 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 P0006= • KFMY 182333Z 19008G18KT 3SM RA BR FEW009 BKN013 OVC025 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0016= • KFMY 182345Z 20010KT 3SM -RA BR FEW009 BKN026 OVC045 25/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0021= • KFMY 182353Z 19011G17KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT011 BKN023 OVC028 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 SLP034 P0023 • 60249 T02560239 10256 20228 53012=

  18. Fort Myers Observations • KFMY 182353Z 19011G17KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT011 BKN023 OVC028 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 • SLP034 P0023 60249 T02560239 10256 20228 53012= • KFMY 190000Z 18007G17KT 3SM -RA BR SCT012 BKN022 OVC028 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 • P0004= • KFMY 190040Z 19011G18KT 10SM FEW014 BKN050 OVC065 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 RAE19 • P0005= • KFMY 190053Z 20011G18KT 6SM -RA BR FEW050 OVC070 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 RAE19B47 • SLP035 P0005 T02560244= • KFMY 190100Z 20011G17KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW009 SCT037 OVC070 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 • P0002= • KFMY 190114Z 18010KT 10SM -RA FEW012 BKN033 OVC070 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 P0009= • KFMY 190125Z 19008KT 7SM -RA SCT010 BKN018 OVC037 26/24 A2964 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT • S AND SW P0009= • KFMY 190133Z 19008KT 7SM -RA BKN012 BKN018 OVC037 26/24 A2964 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT • S AND SW P0010= • KFMY 190153Z 19009G20KT 7SM -RA BKN010 OVC016 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S • SLP036 P0012 T02560244= • KFMY 190206Z 20010G19KT 2SM RA BR SCT012 BKN039 OVC110 25/23 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT S P0009= • KFMY 190215Z 19009G17KT 8SM -RA SCT014 BKN039 OVC120 25/23 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT S P0010= • KFMY 190227Z 19011G16KT 10SM SCT008 BKN014 OVC047 25/24 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT • S RAE21 P0010= • KFMY 190253Z 20013G24KT 9SM SCT010 SCT017 BKN036 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND • 21026/0243 LTG DSNT S AND SW RAE21 SLP032 P0010 60027 T02610244 58002= • KFMY 190331Z 20017G28KT 2 1/2SM RA BR FEW010 BKN038 BKN075 25/23 A2962 RMK AO2 • PK WND 21029/0307 LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB18 P0007= • KFMY 190334Z 20019G32KT 3SM VCTS -RA BR FEW010 SCT039 BKN048 25/23 A2962 RMK • AO2 PK WND 22032/0333 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSB32RAB18 P0007= • KFMY 190342Z 19019G32KT 1 3/4SM VCTS +RA BR FEW010 BKN037 OVC070 25/23 A2962 • RMK AO2 PK WND 18032/0339 VIS 1/2V5 LTG DSNT SE AND S TSB32RAB18 P0010= • KFMY 190349Z 20015G28KT 1 1/2SM VCTS -RA BR FEW009 BKN029 OVC070 25/23 A2962 • RMK AO2 PK WND 18032/0339 LTG DSNT E-S TSB32RAB18 P0023= • KFMY 190354Z 20014G25KT 3SM VCTS +RA BR FEW014 BKN029 OVC070 26/24 A2962 RMK • AO2 LTG DSNT E-S P0002= • KFMY 190350Z 20015G28KT 1 1/2SM VCTS -RA BR FEW009 BKN029 OVC070 25/23 A2962 • RMK AO2 PK WND 18032/0339 LTG DSNT E-S TSB32RAB18 SLP033 P0023 T02500233=

  19. Fort Myers Obsverations • KFMY 190406Z 20010KT 6SM -RA BR SCT009 BKN013 OVC018 26/24 A2963 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT E-S TSE06 P0006= • KFMY 190429Z 19011G19KT 10SM VCTS SCT009 BKN017 OVC040 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT S AND SW TSE06B28RAE12 P0006= • KFMY 190441Z 19011G19KT 10SM VCTS FEW011 BKN034 OVC055 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT SE-SW TSE06B28RAE12 P0006= • KFMY 190449Z 19012G18KT 10SM -RA FEW011 BKN036 OVC060 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT SE AND S TSE06B28E43RAE12B46 P0006 402610228= • KFMY 190453Z 20012G19KT 8SM -RA SCT011 BKN034 OVC055 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT SE AND S TSE06B28E43RAE12B46 SLP031 P0006 T02560239 402610228= • KFMY 190513Z 18007KT 8SM -RA SCT013 BKN024 OVC045 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT • SE AND S P0001= • KFMY 190533Z 20013G18KT 4SM RA BR SCT015 BKN034 OVC046 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT SE AND S P0003= • KFMY 190544Z 20011G19KT 6SM -RA BR FEW009 BKN019 OVC037 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT E-S P0005= • KFMY 190553Z 20012G17KT 8SM -RA SCT013 BKN027 OVC036 26/24 A2960 R • KFMY 190553Z 20012G17KT 8SM -RA SCT013 BKN027 OVC036 26/24 A2960 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT E AND SE SLP026 P0005 60061 T02560239 10261 20250 58007= • KFMY 190623Z 20010KT 9SM SCT011 BKN031 OVC046 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S • RAE0555 P0000= • KFMY 190637Z 21009KT 9SM SCT011 BKN027 OVC048 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S • RAE0555 P0000= • KFMY 190648Z 21009G17KT 10SM FEW011 SCT026 BKN045 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT • S RAE0555 P0000= • KFMY 190653Z 21009KT 10SM FEW011 BKN045 OVC055 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT S • RAE0555 SLP022 P0000 T02610244= • KFMY 190712Z 21009KT 10SM FEW017 BKN027 OVC043 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE • AND S= • KFMY 190724Z 19010G15KT 10SM SCT009 BKN027 OVC055 26/24 A2958 RMK AO2=

  20. Fort Myers Observations • KFMY 190753Z 20008KT 10SM BKN014 BKN022 BKN036 26/24 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE • AND S RAB31E40 SLP016 P0000 T02560239= • KFMY 190833Z 20007KT 9SM SCT008 BKN014 OVC050 26/24 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT E= • KFMY 190848Z 22007KT 3SM RA BR SCT008 BKN037 OVC050 26/25 A2956 RMK AO2 RAB46 • P0000= • KFMY 190850Z 21006KT 2SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC050 26/25 A2956 RMK AO2 RAB46 • P0003= • KFMY 190853Z 19011G17KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC050 26/25 A2957 RMK AO2 • LTG DSNT SE AND S RAB46 SLP013 P0007 60007 T02610250 55008= • KFMY 190856Z 22008G17KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT014 BKN031 OVC065 26/24 A2956 RMK AO2 • LTG DSNT SE AND S P0001= • KFMY 190904Z 22008G14KT 10SM -RA FEW017 BKN043 BKN050 26/24 A2956 RMK AO2 LTG • DSNT SE AND S P0001= • KFMY 190926Z 20006KT 10SM FEW016 BKN022 BKN039 26/25 A2957 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE • RAE11 P0001= • KFMY 190953Z 23007KT 6SM -RA BR FEW014 BKN019 OVC036 26/24 A2958 RMK AO2 • RAE11B44 SLP020 P0001 T02610244= • KFMY 191013Z 22007KT 10SM FEW013 SCT028 OVC035 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 RAE02 P0001= • KFMY 191053Z 26006KT 10SM FEW020 SCT026 26/24 A2959 RMK AO2 RAE02 SLP022 P0001 • T02560239= • KFMY 191153Z 27007KT 10SM FEW020 26/24 A2961 RMK AO2 SLP027 60009 70384 • T02560239 10261 20256 51014= • RECORD EVENT REPORT • NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY FL • 438 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011 • ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FORT MYERS... • A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.19 INCHES WAS SET AT FORT MYERS YESTERDAY. • THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.95 SET IN 1959.

  21. Synoptic Pattern

  22. Surface Analysis

  23. Radar

  24. Verifications

  25. Standings for Fort Myers

  26. Up Close and Personal

  27. Fort Myers – Lessons Learned Excessive rainfall requires deep moisture…high PWAT and a flow from the Tropics are good starters Late season thunderstorms tend to have more wind in the South due to mixing from nearby jet stream flow

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