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TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop

TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop. Griet De Ceuster. SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES. source: general literature. CALIBRATED on SCENES and TIF. SPEED. CONGESTION FUNCTIONS. EMISSIONS FUNCTIONS. (SPEED. -. FLOW). sources:. ROAD: draft COPERT IV with adapted fuel cons. RAIL, AIR: TRENDS.

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TREMOVE ETISPLUS workshop

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  1. TREMOVEETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster

  2. SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIES source: general literature CALIBRATED on SCENES and TIF SPEED CONGESTION FUNCTIONS EMISSIONS FUNCTIONS (SPEED - FLOW) sources: ROAD: draft COPERT IV with adapted fuel cons. RAIL, AIR: TRENDS MOHRING FUNCTIONS module OCCUPANCY RATES IWW: preliminary ARTEMIS (PUBLIC TRANSPORT) LOAD FACTORS input data & functions source: SCENES + others output data consistency check PKM & TKM : 1995 = SCENES = TIF 2000 = TIF (+TRENDS, EUROSTAT) 2020 = SCENES (only for baseline 2030 = based on PRIMES growth rate baseline ) AIR EMISSIONS TRANSPORT DE MAND EMISSIONS PKM VKM detailed TKM VKM MODULE MODULE FUEL & ENERGY CONSUMPTION IWW 2000 ~ PRIMES / RAINS VKM increase VKM detailed TRANSPORT COST/KM per year shares (prices, taxes, subsidies) WTT EMISSION FACTORS source: SCENES, COWI + others LIFE CYCLE sources: PRIMES, RAINS, RAIL EMISSIONS ECOINVENT ROAD MODULE VEHICLE STOCK VEHICLE MODULE STOCK 1995 - 2005 ~ actual sales LIFE CYCLE 1995 = TRENDS STOCK IN 1995 EMISSIONS source: TRENDS + UIC SCRAPPAGE FUNCTIONS source: TRENDS + other EXTERNAL COST FACTORS source: CAFE CBA, GRACE SALES FUNCTIONS source: sales in recent years CAILBRATED on COWI 99-00 + TRENDS - WELFARE total transport MODULE EXPENSES, CS, PS, GOVERN. REVENUE WELFARE differences ETISPLUS

  3. TREMOVE 1 for DG ENV • … - 1999 • Developed by : KUL, DRI • Application in Auto-Oil II programme • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • Vehicle emission standards • Fuel quality standards • Non-technical measures • Public transport subsidies, scrappage, … • Fuel taxes ETISPLUS

  4. TREMOVE 2.0–2.52 for DG ENV • 2002 - 2007 • Developed by : TML, KUL et al. • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • EURO 5 standards • Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives) • Maritime policies (aftertreatment, …) • Plane taxes • Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN ETISPLUS

  5. TREMOVE 2.7 : GRACE • Released November 2007 • Development by TML • For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds) • Cost-effectiveness analysis of : • Km-charging policies (road and other modes) • Can be executed without software licenses ETISPLUS

  6. TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO) • Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS • TransTools is the new network-based forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, … • Development by TML and TRT • TML also developed the EDIP model ETISPLUS

  7. TREMOVE 3.1 for JRC • For JRC-IPTS • TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI • New car ‘materials’ module • Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts • Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model • 4 Policy simulations : • Promoting smaller & lighter cars • Accelerated scrappage & replacement ETISPLUS

  8. TREMOVE 3.2 : iTREN EC FP6 iTREN-2030 (coordinator : ISI) • Developing a common 2030 forecast with : • TRANSTOOLS • POLES : Energy / technology model (JRC-IPTS,TRT) • ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer ISI) • Automated data exchange with TRANS-TOOLS • Extension with new car technologies • Hydrogen • Electric ETISPLUS

  9. TREMOVE 3.3 for ENV • Taxes and prices • VAT rates & evolution • National taxation • Fuel prices: IEA extract • Demand baseline: from iTREN • Rail stock from EX-TREMIS • Road stock from FLEETS • BY set to 2005 • Maritime model • Updated with EX-TREMIS values • Issue in demand (buses) originating from iTREN • Validation • Calibration • Database clean-up • Alternative baseline: data is set • Sensitivity ETISPLUS

  10. TREMOVE 3.4 for JRC • Baseline update • Purpose: DG MOVE White Paper ETISPLUS

  11. GLADYSTEETISPLUS workshop Griet De Ceuster

  12. Gladyste • The new TREMOVE • World • System dynamics • Demand module independent from other sources • Demand can also be exogenous • Vensim • Ready by end of 2010 ETISPLUS

  13. Features • Copy of TREMOVE • Additional demand module • Additional 24 world regions (+33 European zones) • 4 modules: Demand, Fleet, Energy Use / Emissions, and Welfare ETISPLUS

  14. Linkages with other models • Copy of TREMOVE • Demand module partly based on ASTRA (not identical) • Link with POLES developed • Export to Poles • Link with TRANS-TOOLS will be developed • Overrule Gladyste demand and replace by Trans-Tools demand ETISPLUS

  15. ETISPLUS

  16. Screenshot FLEET module ETISPLUS

  17. Thank you!

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