UFTI Update Presentation to the SmartGrowth Leadership Group

1. UFTI UpdatePresentation to the SmartGrowth Leadership Group 20 March 2019

2. Agenda Introduction/Background Principles Key issues Project Plan/Resources Summary and discussion

3. Introduction Phase 1 UFTI has been completed in partnership between SmartGrowth partners (BOPRC, WBOPDC, TCC) and NZTA, Stakeholder Strategies and Campbell Squared Phase One is near-completion and has delivered: • Agreed Terms of Reference • Approved Project Plan (drawing on the ATAP precedent approved by NZTA • Communications and Engagement Plan • Draft Resource Plan • Briefing Papers which outline the team’s WIP thinking on key issues Delivery of prescribed Phase One outputs has been on time, in full and within budget • Additional deliverables (briefing papers, baseline analysis) were produced within budget Strong cooperation at team and governance level between the Partners Guidance is sought on the project principles

4. What UFTI partners will work together to develop a strategy for a liveable city UFTI is a partnership between SmartGrowth partners (BOPRC, WBOPDC and TCC) and NZTA , to provide the blueprint for identifying the common transport, housing, liveability and urban development challenges shared by our communities. Building on local initiatives, such as the FDS, TTP and TUS, and using valuable insights and feedback from the public and interest groups. UFTI is an evidence-based and quantified approach for the future. Sub-regional in focus and fully integrated across urban form and transport issues. Fully aligned with the new transport Government Policy Statement and the Urban Growth Agenda. A coordinated approach that brings together more than 24 transport and urban development projects currently underway in the western Bay of Plenty. UFTI will provide a clear way forward and confidence for government to support through investment and funding.

5. Why UFTI is an integrative project, aiming to deliver a fundable programme

6. How UFTI needs to resolve near-term URBAN FORM, housing and transport issues concurrently Housing capacity is needed urgently • Population growing quickly • Tauranga has increasing housing unaffordability • Near-term housing opportunities dependent on transport investment • Smith’s Farm (potential access resolved through TNL) • Omokoroa - SH2 (TNL and roundabout) • Tauriko West (SH29) • Te Tumu dependent on Maori Land Court Transport investment appears to be on hold until NZTA’s state highway re-evaluation process is complete and until a system master plan is developed • SH2/TNL on the announcement of NZTA’s re-evaluation • SH29 on agreeing level of service and multi-modal targets, and re-evaluation • Elizabeth St, Hewlett’s/Sulphur and Barkes/Bayfair on the system master plan UFTI outputs and team processes will help to ensure NZTA and SmartGrowth partners build shared understanding together through a common team process Source: http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

7. How At the heart of the problem are four interdependent issues… • Where will new greenfield developments be located? • Near term planned growth dispersed in periphery • High greenfield share increases demand for roading, unless high self-containment is achieved • Maori land represents a large opportunity • What degree of intensification of existing urban areas can be achieved? • Currently low but potential not yet known • Reduces requirement for greenfield development • Concentrate demand for multi-modal solutions • What network investments are needed? • Capacity stretched at some locations and exacerbated by greenfield developments • Future levels of service requirements and network master plan needed • How much multi-modal share can be achieved? • Solutions identified in principle, but difficult in practice • Can change and reduce network investment required • Can enable greater accessibility for more distant and deprived areas • Includes consideration of rail Accommodating growth of Port and regional (inc UNI) transport flows

8. When The project IS undertaken in four phases with tangible outputs from each phase 2018 2019 Deliverable Agreed Terms of Reference, Project Plan, Resource Plan, and Communication and Engagement Plan; Briefing Papers. Delivered and approved by governance groups Phase One Phase Two Overview of the context, long-term trends andscenarios, problem definition, desired outcomes and key performance measures, and an earlyidentification of options in a Foundation Report Phase Three Initial testing and evaluation of the urban form and transport options, a draft of the high-level urban form and network master plans, and high-level recommendations in an Interim Report Phase Four Completion of a Final Report which details the best performing options, the integrated urban form and transport system master plan, and recommended actions to achieve implementation, and launching implementation projects Source: Adapted from the UFTI Project Plan

9. Agenda Introduction/Background Principles Key issues Project Plan/Resources Summary and discussion

10. Principles are proposed to guide how UFTI progresses Three types of principles have been developed and agreed by the project team: • “Partnership” principles which guide how the parties should interact • “Protocol” principles which guide how team members should operate • “Solution” principles which guide the answers sought by the team The principles will be used to guide how the UFTI project team and governance members work within the project Principles are presented in draft form for the SmartGrowth Leadership Group’s consideration and discussion at end of this presentation

11. “Partnership” principles which guide how the parties should interact Participate in the project in good faith Recognise the need to examine existing policies and strategies where necessary Work collaboratively to deliver on the project objectives Make available relevant information as required Contribute staff time as required to complete the project successfully Communicate externally in partnership through UFTI Acknowledge sensitivities and release information publicly only when agreed

12. “Protocol” principles which guide how team members should operate Build from past work and develop solutions iteratively Recommend decisions based on agreed evidence and processes Deliver in close partnership between the Parties Drive collaboration between connected projects and UFTI sub-teams Bring stakeholders and the public “along the journey” Build shared understanding and agreement

13. “Solution” principles which guide the answers sought by the team The “solution” principles have been developed to expand on the SmartGrowth Partnership principles developed in 2001. They include Underlying principles from the SmartGrowth Partnership • Live, learn, work and Play • Integrated planning for the long term • Evidence Based • Partnership Additional principles to guide the solutions which are developed through UFTI • Deliver the project’s objectives outlined in project plan • Align to Government’s urban growth and transport agenda while tailoring solutions to reflect WBOP’s unique situation • Be ambitious and aspirational while realistic and evidence backed • Develop future proofed and adaptable solutions • Bring stakeholders and the community “along the journey”

14. Agenda Introduction/Background Principles Key issues Project Plan/Resources Summary and discussion

15. Briefing papers DEVELOPED to communicate key issues and emerging insights Briefing Papers prepared on twelve key issues identified so far Four Briefing Papers have been highlighted as covering topics particularly important Other briefing papers are on the agenda for comment Four Briefing Papers highlighted to the SLG Eight others for consideration • Near-term projects • Housing supply • Hewletts Road sub-area • Mode shift potential • UFTI challenge • UFTI methodology • Managing uncertain futures • Regional freight flows • Multi-modal transport options • SmartGrowth and UFTI relationships • UFTI additionality • Connected projects

16. Related Projects Three near-term projects are critical to WBOP transport system Each project requires greater focus, coordination, technical and partner support to progress

17. Related Projects Other strategy and planning processes will be connected and built upon Three partner strategy and planning projects requiring UFTI outputs to progress • Future Development Strategy • Tauranga Urban Strategy • Tauranga Transport Plan (TTP) TTP was not approved by NZTA due to a lack of ambition on mode shift • Including lack of clarity on how tool and levers such as land use planning or parking management and pricing, would enable greater mode shift • Thereby reducing car dependency and its undesirable social and environmental effects • TCC is responding to NZTA’s letter outlining their decision Other related projects under implementation or development and must maintain momentum while ensuring appropriate linked with UFTI • For example, the BOPRC’s Rail Study and NZTA’s innovation projects • Please see the connected projects Briefing Paper for more detail

18. Housing Supply UFTI IS ASSESSING DEMAND FOR AND CAPACITY OF WBOP HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS Remaining development capacity New development capacity New urban growth areas Te Tumu, Omokoroa and Tauriko West…. UFTI assumes these projects will proceed More opportunities for intensification of existing urban areas Plan changes underway (2018 notification) Te Papa spatial planning Projects to proceed alongside UFTI Special Housing Areas Main tool for short-term flexibility But not being extended Affects immediate opportunities and UGA timing • NPS requires 10yrs zoned supply, +20% freeboard • TCC has 6 years of theoretical capacity for house building, 4 years for subdivision • Much less in practical terms as some development blocks not being developed or developed slowly • Developers estimate less than 18 months realisable capacity remains • Urgent need to provide more development capacity in short term • SLG direction in Dec 18 to pursue options

19. Housing Supply WBOP IS Hitting short and long term HOUSING CAPCITY CONSTRAINTS Sufficient short term housing capacity? Long term capacity issues? Significant shortfall in capacity based on current settlement pattern Signalling need for more intensification of existing urban areas and/or new greenfield areas UFTI to assess long-term options and make recommendations • Unlikely • Potential for significant shortfall in next few years • Te Tumu and Tauriko West facing significant delay (2023+) • Silver lining – A possible intensification of existing urban areas response?

20. Housing Supply ~17k houses needed by 2048 are not yet provided by current settlement pattern Planned housing capacity in 2048(000s, FDS, 2018) Historically, intensification in the existing urban area has delivered only a small share of additional dwellings, despite significant capacity being zoned and serviced in some locations • Planned future greenfield areas at risk due to unforeseen delays/risks in the release of capacity in the Omokoroa, Te Tumu and Tauriko West new communities. • These delays relate to NZTA’s transport investments and Māori Land Court issues

21. Housing Supply Potential long-term housing solutions identified but uncertain Source: Future Development Strategy

22. Housing Supply To deliver a housing supply plan, UFTI will resolve three issues What are the barriers to developers delivering high density housing? • What are the key components of their cost? • What market condition changes (e.g. house prices) would stimulate intensification of existing urban areas? • What non-cost factors are preventing the delivery of intensification of existing urban areas? What interventions and innovations could overcome delivery barriers to the intensification of existing urban areas? • Are similar cities delivering greater intensification of existing urban areas, and how? • Are there any large-scale site redevelopment opportunities in Tauranga? • Where are the new opportunities for Transit-Oriented Communities and what would be needed to make them successful? • What is a realistic range of intensification of existing urban areas scenarios? What is the prioritisation of greenfield corridors to supplement infill/intensification of existing urban areas following Omokoroa, Te Tumu, Tauriko West and Keenan Road? • Noting this work will be done in partnership with SmartGrowth Partner staff working on the Future Development Strategy.

23. Hewletts Sub-area Hewletts road sub-area is an important and challenging priority for UFTI The sub-area includes SH2 from Sulphur Point to the Sandhurst Drive interchange plus the surrounding industrial, commercial and residential areas Hewlett’s/Sulphur/Sandhurst is important for several reasons: • Access to New Zealand’s largest port, the CBD, Eastern Corridor and wider BOP, and Mount Maunganui’s tourism, education, and retail propositions • Lessons learned from this sub-area may generate insight across the sub-region The starting position for the sub-area is challenging • Commuter and freight traffic are congested at peak times and present both service level and road safety issues • Recent and expected traffic growth is about 5% per annum, above the 4% per annum GDP growth for the region • Intersections and driveways along Hewletts Road make accommodating future growth difficult

24. Hewletts Sub-area EXAMPLE INPUT: EBOP PGF PROJECT FREIGHT FLOWS: WATER BOTTLING HAS CRITICAL IMPACT Estimated vehicle traffic at Matata in 2030 (Passenger car equivalents by industry) 479 Capacity3 38 26 Heavy vehicles2 Light vehicles 13,341 Estimatedtotal Current and BAU growth Horticulture Mussels Water KPID EBOP PGF projects1 Notes: Sourced from the Eastern Bay of Plenty Regional Development Project. Heavy vehicles converted into Passenger Car Equivalents using a multiple of 2.5. Assumed each truck carried 40 foot container worth of cargo. ‘Current + expected growth’ takes a 5 year CAGR and extrapolates. Based on “rule of thumb” of 19,000 from NZTA.

25. Hewletts Sub-area Example output: rail crossings obstruct traffic between 1 and 15% of the time… Impact of level rail crossings on road traffic (% of time barrier arm down between 7am and 7pm) Trains move slowly close to the port, increasing wait times at level crossings If KPID and Murupara proceed, train frequency along Matapihi branch would increase by over 200% The Bayfair level crossing is currently being grade separated Note: Average train speeds determined at each point, multiplied by the count of trains per day and the length of a full train.

26. Hewletts Sub-area UFTI will consider a range of Potential solutions in hewletts sub-area Solution options for consideration

27. Mode Shift Mode Shift is a key objective requiring a range of tools to overcome constraints Western Bay of Plenty (WBOP) is NZ’s most car-dependent metropolitan area. Building more road capacity will not be the only/predominant solution to manage congestion or support liveable, connected and vibrant communities. Attractive public transport and active modes choices, emerging technologies, and the right measures and conditions (e.g. land use; policy & regulation; parking management) must play a greater role in meeting transport demand. Characteristics of the WBOP will inform approach to mode shift. Phase 2 of the Project is to identify potential for mode shift under BAU /current trajectory approach. Service vehicle occupants may make up a material proportion of trips (unlikely to carpool or shift mode due to specialised vehicle and storage requirements) Inter-regional trips are also unlikely to shift to modes such as public transport or micro-mobility due to length of trips Peak time flows into Central Tauranga along limited number of key corridors likely to be well suited to public transport Trips under 3km (perhaps further) likely to be well suited to walking, cycling, and Mobility-As-A-Service solutions if safe and attractive facilities available

28. Mode Shift To deliver MODE SHIFT, UFTI will need to resolve six issues (identified so far) Who are the individuals and businesses who can shift modes? What mix of infrastructure, pricing, management and policy levers encourage individuals and business to shift mode? (the drivers behind mode decisions) What will make mode shift options more attractive than private light vehicles? What interventions and policy tools (push and pull levers) are required/available to drive mode shift? How many individuals will shift modes? What urban form/ development area conditions (e.g. distance/ intensity etc.) support future demand to be accommodated by non-private vehicle modes of transport?

29. Agenda Introduction/Background Principles Key issues Project Plan/Resources Summary and discussion

30. UFTI will be delivered over four phases with six analytic stages “Phases” and “stages” align to NZTA’s ATAP approach

31. The base case stage includes resolving ten highly related questions

32. Key Stage two analyses include intensification of existing urban areas and mode shift (1) Excerpt of base case analyses, UFTI Project Plan Intensification of existing urban areas Understand current demand and supply profile and trajectory, drivers, success factors, barriers, and high-level options Sensitivity test changes in land values and building costs required to drive intensification of existing urban areas Identify lessons from international cities of a similar scale, type and land configuration Model intensification of existing urban areas opportunities and alternative uptake scenarios to estimate the housing need residual to be met by new development areas New development areas • Understand current demand and supply profile and trajectory, drivers, success factors, barriers, and high-level options • Prioritise options so that a base case development sequence can be described Demand management • Identify leading global and NZ demand management solutions • Develop base case suite of solutions for the WBOP • Understand enabling system requirements and barriers to adoption • Model impact on demand

33. Key Stage two analyses include intensification of existing urban areas and mode shift (2) Excerpt of base case analyses, UFTI Project Plan Identify leading mode shift solutions and strategies • Develop system solution and understand how to tailor for specific circumstances • Understand enabling system requirements and barriers to adoption • Model impact on demand Network plan • Model implications of 2.6., 2.7, and 2.8 • Integrate planned and proposed system-level transport investments • Define future network spine, including cross harbour connections and primary freight routes • Develop a strategic approach to improve access to the network spine, for example the Sulphur Point to Bayfair sub-area

34. The forward resourcing plan includes five options for the analytic team It is proposed that the Project Director and analytical team including partner staff co-locate in the UFTI office

35. Agenda Introduction/Background Principles Key issues Project Plan/Resources Summary and discussion

36. Next steps Next steps for UFTI team are to: Appoint Project Director and Technical Advisor Complete procurement process Continue to progress near-term projects Continue iterating Project Plan Prepare draft scopes of research needed (building off issues papers) Launch Phase 2 as soon as possible Near term delays will impact final deliverable dates

37. Input from SLG sought on ‘Solution’ principles Recap of the proposed principles from Slide 13 : Underlying principles from the SmartGrowth Partnership • Live, learn, work and Play • Integrated planning for long term • Evidence Based • Partnership Additional principles to guide solutions which are developed through UFTI • Deliver project’s objectives outlined in project plan • Align to Government’s urban growth and transport agenda while tailoring solutions to reflect WBOP’s unique situation • Be ambitious and aspirational while also realistic and evidence backed • Develop future proofed and adaptable solutions • Bring stakeholders and the community “along the journey”