GBO-3: 110 National Reports, Biodiversity Futures Study, Open Review Process

1. The information behind GBO-3: • 110 National Reports • Biodiversity Indicators Partnership • Biodiversity Futures Study • 500 scientific papers • Open review process

2. GBO-3 is an output of the processes under the Convention. Parties to the Convention, other Governments, and observer organizations have shaped the Outlook GBO-3 has been prepared by the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, in close collaboration UNEP-WCMC. The production of GBO-3 was enabled by financial contributions from Canada, the European Union, Germany, Japan, Spain and the United Kingdom, as well as UNEP.

3. Structure • Biodiversity in 2010 • Biodiversity Futures for the 21st Century • Towards a Strategy for Reducing Biodiversity Loss

4. 2010 Biodiversity Target • “to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth”

5. The 2010 Biodiversity Target has not been met • No sub-target completely achieved • Most indicators negative • No government claims success • Direct pressures constant or increasing

6. The global Living Planet Index (LPI), has declined by more than 30% since 1970, • The Tropical LPI has declined by almost 60%. • The Temperate LPI showed an increase of 15%, reflecting the recovery of some species populations in temperate regions Source: WWF/ZSL Source: WWF/ZSL

7. The Red List Index (RLI) for all these species groups is decreasing. • Coral species are moving most rapidly towards greater extinction risk • Amphibians are, on average, the group most threatened. Source: IUCN

8. Livestock breeds at risk Source: FAO

9. Protected areas increasing … Source: UNEP-WCMC Source: UNEP-WCMC

10. …but large areas still under-represented Source: UNEP-WCMC

11. Trends in habitats are varied but show declines over all: • Wetlands, salt marshes, coral reefs, seagrass beds and sea ice continue to decline • Extensive fragmentation of forests and rivers • Mangrove decline slowing (except in Asia) • The condition of many terrestrial habitats is deteriorating (degrading) Source: NSIDC

12. Amazon loss slowing in Brazil Source: INPE

13. State Pressure Response Source: Butchart etal 2010

14. Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards the 2010 biodiversity target:

15. Key Findings: • Projections show continuing and accelerating extinctions, habitat loss, changes in distribution and abundance of biodiversity • High risk of dramatic biodiversity loss and degradation of services from tipping points • Loss preventable and even reversible with strong, urgent action

16. What is a tipping point? Threshold Time lag Self-perpetuating Long lasting/hard to reverse

17. Tipping Point – Amazon dieback Alternative Path Current Path • Widespread shift from forest to savanna resulting from the Interaction of deforestation, climate change and fires • Becomes more likely at 20%-30% deforestation • Self-perpetuating • Regional rainfall and global climate impacts, massive biodiversity loss • Keep deforestation below 20%-30% of original forest area • Minimize use of fire for clearing • Keep global climate warming below 2-3 degrees

18. Tipping Points – Freshwater eutrophication Current Path Alternative Path • The buildup of nutrients from fertilizers and sewage shifts freshwater bodies into a eutrophic state causing: • Low oxygen levels and widespread kills of plants, fish, invertebrates • Loss of nutrition from fisheries, toxic blooms make water unfit for drinking or recreation • Reduce nutrient inputs from sewage, detergents and agriculture • Reforestation of watersheds • Restoration of wetlands • Economic incentives to close nutrient cycle on farms

19. Tipping Points – Coral reef collapse Current Path Alternative Path • Bleaching severe with temperature rise great than ca. 2oC • Ocean acidification prevents corals forming skeletons • Reefs become degraded and algae-dominated • Livelihood threat to hundreds of millions through loss of fisheries and tourism • Reduce local stressors including: • Destructive fishing practices • Coastal pollution • Over-exploitation of herbivores such as sea urchins and fish • Strict climate mitigation to keep CO2 levels below 450 ppm and 2oC.

20. Broadening action on biodiversity

21. There is a greater range of options than previously recognized Source: Leadley and Pereira etal 2010

22. Scenarios for land use Business as usual • Carbon tax including land use Carbon tax on fossil fuels and industry only Source: Wise etal 2009

23. Address climate change and biodiversity loss in close co-ordination, and with equal priority, if the most severe impacts of each are to be avoided.

24. Key strategy elements: • Greater efficiency in use of land, energy and fresh water to meet growing demand • Use of market incentives and avoidance of perverse subsidies • Strategic planning • Restoration of ecosystems • Equitable sharing of benefits from use of and access to genetic resources and associated traditional knowledge • Support and facilitate local action • Communication, education and awareness-raising

25. The action taken over the next decade or two will determine whether the relatively stable environmental conditions on which human civilization has depended for the past 10,000 years will continue beyond this century. If we fail to use this opportunity, many ecosystems on the planet will move into new, unprecedented states in which the capacity to provide for the needs of present and future generations is highly uncertain.

26. For further information on Global Biodiversity Outlook and related prodcuts please see: www.cbd.int/GBO3