The Islamic Revival and World Politics

1. The Islamic Revival and World Politics Kevin J. Benoy

2. Background to Islam • Islam is a religion based on the teachings of Mohammed. • It is the majority religion in all of the Arab countries, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Turkic successor states of the former Soviet Union.

3. Background to Islam • Mohammed was born in 570 AD in Mecca. • His first revelation was in 610. • From this and later revelations came the Moslem holy book – the Koran.

4. Background to Islam • Islam is more than just a religion; it is a way of life. • It has a strong evangelical streak to it, with followers called upon to spread the word. • This has, in the past, been done by the sword as well as the word.

5. Background to Islam • Early on the religion experienced a fundamental split that continues to divide it. • With the murder of the 3rd Caliph, the prophet’s son-in-law, Ali, became the leader in 656. He too was assassinated in 661 and the Governor of Syria established himself as leader, instead of Ali’s descendents. • Today, 90% of Moslems are Sunni (those who accept the succession of the Caliph) and 10% Shia (who follow the descendents of Ali). • Shia’s form a big majority in Iran, and a slight majority in Iraq and Bahrain while Sunnis predominate elsewhere.

6. Background to Islam • Further splits relate to racial and national divisions. • Arabs and Persians see themselves as different, as do Syrians and Jordanians. • As with Christians, there are also divisions between orthodox practitioners and those whose faith is more liberal. • On the other hand, other factors pull all Moslems together – like the yearly haj.

7. Islam in the Modern World • Moslems, like Christians, faced strong secular pressure in the last century or so. • This was further complicated by the effects of colonialism and decolonization. • Pressures within Moslem societies have been great. • Modernization has also led to huge class differences as rural peasants lived in almost feudal conditions, while the rich and upper middle class lived like westerners. • Traditional values remain strongest with the poor and with those who most strongly sympathize with them.

8. Islam and Government • In many Moslem countries, Islamic principles underpin national laws – just as Judeo-Christian values lie at the heart of most Western legal systems. • In some, religion is more than just a philosophical basis as Islam does not separate beliefs from actions. • Some Moslem states implement Sharia, religious law. For instance, they forbid charging interest on loans or proscribe amputation of a thief’s right hand.

9. Islam and Government • In Saudi Arabia, punishments today are as they were in the day of Mohammed. • Thieves may have a hand amputated. • Adulterers are stoned to death. • The testimony of a man is worth twice that of a woman. • Under Sharia law, corporal punishment is meted out and the public invited to attend floggings. This is very like what happened in pre-modern Europe.

10. The Iranian Revolution • Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Aryamehr Iran prospered economically from the windfall profits of petroleum products. • The country became a regional political and military power as the Shah invested heavily in US equipment, becoming the “policeman” of the Gulf, with American blessing.

11. The Iranian Revolution • While the Shah, his family and supporters lived in opulence, little benefit accrued to the rural and urban poor. • Religious leaders objected to the increasing secularization of the country as the Shah pushed modernization. • The Shah dismissed calls for Sharia law as anachronistic.

12. The Iranian Revolution • In addition, the Shah increasingly relied on brutal actions by SAVAK – Iran’s secret police – against critics. • In doing so, and in his serving American interests, the Shah alienated much of the middle class. • US involvement in overthrowing the democratically elected government of Iran in 1953 – to put the Shah in power -- was long a source of resentment of the West.

13. The Iranian Revolution • In 1978 things began to spin out of control for the Shah. • In January, religious dissidents were fired on in the religious city of Qom. • In February there were riots in Tabriz and small towns. • In May the universities were close and protests and strikes in the Tehran bazaar became commonplace. • By late 1978 the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, an exiled cleric living in Paris, became the symbol of religious opposition. The clerics refused to compromise with the government, demanding a return to Islamic principles and an end to Westernization.

14. The Iranian Revolution • Riots and strikes brought violent responses. • On September 8 between 100 and 200 demonstrators were gunned down by security forces. • By November, the armed forces were needed to back up the police. • The country was placed under military rule.

15. The Iranian Revolution • The economy collapsed as little productive work could be done in an atmosphere of perpetual strikes and protests. • The Shah acknowledged that he could no longer impose his will. • On January 1, 1979, General Gholam Reza Azhari was replaced as Prime Minister by the reformer ShahpurBakhtiar, who insisted that the Shah leave the country – which he did on January 126 after urging the military to remain loyal to the new regime.

16. The Iranian Revolution • Further radicalization followed the return of Khomeini on February 1. • He called for establishing an Islamic Republic. • Bakhtiar tried to hold on to existing constitutional principles, but was forced out of office, into hiding, and into exile after the army withdrew support.

17. The Iranian Revolution • The army itself was deeply divided. • There was no cooperation between the army and air force. • Fearing complete disintegration, the army generals ordered their troops to remain in barracks, but when civilians and Islamic guerillas overran the major Tehran army bases army morale completely broke down. • Armed fanatics now controlled the city streets and power shifted from the official government to Khomeini and his Revolutionary Council.

18. The Iranian Revolution • Momentum was with Khomeini. • On March 30-31, 1979, a referendum overwhelmingly accepted establishing an Islamic Republic. • A President and representative assembly would be elected by universal suffrage, but they had little power. • A Council of Guardians, composed of clerics, would oversee the passage of all legislation. • Final decision making rested in a faqih – the leading theologian in the country.

19. The Iranian Revolution • Khomeimi eliminated vestiges of opposition. • Revolutionary authorities executed hundreds. • Revolts in minority areas (especially Turkomen and Kurdish) were suppressed. • Leftists and others attempted to turn the situation to their favour, but were crushed – though several clerics were assassinated and others injured.

20. Iranian Foreign Policy • Iranian foreign policy shifted dramatically. • Iran became anti-American and anti-Soviet. • The regime threw its support behind Shia minorities in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Gulf states and Lebanon. • Religion, rather than political ideology, now drove policy. • Fortunately for Iran’s Sunni neighbours, the revolution also sapped Iran’s military potential.

21. Iran’s Economic Trouble • The economy crumbled. • Many middle class Iranians fled the country, not wishing to live under a fundamentalist regime. • Anti-Khomeini sabotage was a problem. • The government took over many large enterprises, starting with private banks, then insurance companies, and finally all major companies. • Foreign investment withdrew, taking capital and expertise with them.

22. The Hostage Crisis • On November 4, 1979 radical Islamic students stormed the US embassy in Iran, holding 55 Americans prisoner until January, 1981. • The US responded by freezing Iranian assets. • In April, 1980 a US special forces operation to free the hostages failed miserably. • Iran was an international pariah.

23. The Iran-Iraq War • Seeking to take advantage of Iran’s military decline, Iraq invaded Kurdistan and Khuzestan provinces in September, 1980. • The Iraqis likely expected anti-Khomeini forces would rise up – however the opposite occurred. Iranians of all beliefs united against this foreign invasion.

24. Iran Iraq War • Iraq found itself in a prolonged conflict against a country with a much bigger population. • Saddam Hussein was armed by the US. • Iran secretly received parts for their US aircraft from Israel – which found it useful to have two strong opponents butchering each other for nearly a decade (until 1988).

25. Iran Under Khomeini • The war helped solidify Khomieni and the Islamic revolution. • Religious principles underpinned Iranian society – politically and economically. • The Iranian theocracy served as a model for Islami fundamentalists elsewhere to strive for.

26. The Soviets and Afghanistan • This remote, mountainous, backwards country has long been of strategic importance. • In the 19th century it was at the heart of the “Great Game” as the Russians and British both sought to extend influence into the country with little success. • Bordering directly on Afghanistan, Soviet concern for the area continued in the 20th century.

27. The Soviets and Afghanistan • In 1978 a coup overthrew the 5 year old government of Sarder Mohammad Daud – replacing it with a pro-Soviet regime under Nur Mohammad Taraki – who renamed the country the People’s Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. • In September, 1979, Taraki was killed in another coup by HafizullahAmin – and a Soviet sponsored counter-coup followed, led by BabrakKarmal, who called upon the Soviet Union to supply troops to help him.

28. The Soviets and Afghanistan • The attitude of many Afghanis to the governments after Daud was hostile – especially among the orthodox Moslems who made up most of the population. • Moslem fundamentalists were also encouraged by events in Iran and Pakistan, where Islamization was taking place. • Fighting broke out between religiously-motivated rebels and Afghan government forces.

29. The Soviets and Afghanistan • The Soviets were concerned with events in Afghanistan for two key reasons: • They feared the rising tide of Moslem fundamentalism because of their own large (and growing) Moslem population within their own borders. Anti-Soviet broadcasts from Shia Iran were bad enough. A fundamentalist and mostly Sunni Afghanistan was more threatening still. • No nation feels secure with chaos and civil war on its border. The Soviets wanted a stable neighbour – particularly one that stood for similar social values to its own.

30. The Soviets and Afghanistan • The Soviets did not expect to station forces in Afghanistan for a decade. • At first the troops sent came from the Central Asian republics – but they proved unreliable. They were replaced by European Soviet units.

31. The Soviets and Afghanistan • Afghan rebels proved more difficult to deal with than expected. • Veterans of tribal wars and fiercely independent, the mujehaddin believed they were involved in a jihad – a holy war against infidel Soviets.

32. The Soviets and Afghanistan • A third of Afghanistan’s population eventually lived in exile, fleeing the bloody conflict and providing a vast pool of disaffected people from which jihadists could be drawn. • Soviet forces had difficulty distinguishing mujehaddin from ordinary peasants and many innocents were killed – breeding new hatred.

33. The Soviets and Afghanistan • Support for the Mujehaddin was strong in the Arab world – which meant considerable Gulf money financing their efforts – and Arab volunteers to fight for the cause. • A war that started with antique rifles and home-made weapons escalated rapidly.

34. The Soviets and Afghanistan • More importantly, the conflict occurred while the Cold War was still active. • The US saw an opportunity to turn it into a “Soviet Vietnam.” • Very sophisticated weapons were provided to the mujehaddin – including the lethal stinger hand-held anti-aircraft missiles – much of this aid funnelled through Pakistan and their military’s Inter Service Intelligence (ISI) unit.

35. The Soviets and Afghanistan • The war was costly to the Soviets – in lives, treasure and diplomacy. • Western countries boycotted the Moscow Olympics. • The world arms markets were awash in sophisticated weaponry that found customers in Asia, Africa and beyond.

36. The Soviets and Afghanistan • The human cost of the war was staggering: • Almost 15,000 Soviet lives were lost. • 54,000 were wounded or injured. • 88% of Soviet forces suffered serious illness. • 1-2 million Afghanis died. • In the 1980s half of the world’s refugees were from Afghanistan. • In February1988 the Soviets withdrew, leaving the Afghanis to conclude the war themselves.

37. The Soviets and Afghanistan • The Soviet-backed government held on in Kabul until 1992. • Fighting between Mujehaddin groups continued as ethnic divisions split the country. • Unity was not restored in most of the country until the Taliban emerged. Beginning their drive for power in 1994, they took Kabul in 1996 – though the Northern Alliance continued to rule parts of the country. • Islamic fundamentalism underpinned Taliban rule – with women’s rights (extended with Soviet help) stripped and music and entertainment banned. Sharia law was rigidly enforced.

38. Afghan Aftermath • Weapons from the Afghan war flooded the world – as did committed jihadists – from Kosovo to Lebanon to Chechnya, well armed fundamentalists were buoyed by their defeat of a super-power. • Returning Arab fighters had much to oppose when they returned to their authoritarian governed homelands. • In 1992 a military coup prevented the coming to power of the Moslem Brotherhood in Algeria. • Ongoing civil war in Chechnya cost lives in the affected area, while terrorism spread to Moscow itself.

39. Kuwait and the First Gulf War • Saddam Hussein faced economic collapse at the end of the Iran-Iraq war. • In 1990 he gambled with an invasion of oil-rich Kuwait on questionable historical grounds. • Arab neighbours and Western Countries were taken aback. • US President George Bush put together an alliance to oppose the move and ultimately reverse it.

40. Kuwait and the First Gulf War • A Western air campaign quickly destroyed the Iraqi air force. • Smart bombs and cruise missiles disabled Iraqi command and control capabilities. • When the ground campaign began, in early August, 1990 – Operation Desert Storm had rapid success.

41. Kuwait and the First Gulf War • While the war was being fought, Saddam Hussein sought to break the coalition by bringing Israel into the conflict – hopefully splitting the Arab and Western allies. • Scud missiles fired at Tel-Aviv brought no Israeli response as the US promised to deliver the new Patriot anti-missile system to them, provided they kept out of the conflict. • Fears that Hussein might employ chemical weapons in the Scud attacks – that were also launched against Saudi Arabia -- came to nothing. Iraq understood that any such escalation might lead to an Israeli nuclear response.

42. Gulf War Aftermath • The speed of Iraq’s collapse caught many by surprise. • The coalition worked hard to promote dissent in Iraq prior to the collapse – resulting in uprisings in the North by Kurds and by Shia in the South. • By surrendering quickly and accepting the loss of Kuwait, Saddam preserved much of his military force – which he then turned on the rebels. • The coalition achieved its goals and now it turned its back on the Kurds and Shia. • Only a humanitarian disaster caused reconsideration as hundreds of thousands of Kurds fled across the mountains into Turkey – a country with a “Kurdish problem” of its own.

43. Gulf War Aftermath • A safe zone was established in the North for the Kurds. • A no-fly zone in both North and South forbade Iraqi aircraft from attacking. • Saddam Hussein continued to rule harshly, but was restrained somewhat by threats from the West.

44. 9-11 • On September 11, 2001 Americans were horrified by the coordinated attacks upon the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington by Osama bin Laden’s Al-Qaeda group. • Americans were shocked by terrorism at home, but this was not Al-Qaeda’s first attacks on America – attacks on a US warship in Yemen and American embassy in Kenya preceded it. • Armed and supported by the US in the Afghan war – bin Laden was consistent in his ideology, opposing American secularism as he opposed Soviet.

45. Response to 9-11 • Osama’s goal was to bring an American backlash against the Moslem world that would stimulate anti-Western feeling and possibly topple pro-American Arab regimes. • What would the Americans do? • Two schools of thought were voiced: • Moderates, like Colin Powell wanted a measured response. • Radicals, like Paul Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney called for a general attack on terrorists and the states that sponsored them – including Iraq.

46. Response to 9-11 • Al-Qaeda was quickly identified as the perpetrator. • The US prepared a dramatic response against the it and the Taliban regime that allowed it to operate in Afghanistan. • Working with the Northern Alliance and with NATO allies, the Americans quickly took control of the country, forcing Taliban and Al Qaeda across the border into Pakistan’s tribal territories. • The war now moved into a low-intensity conflict that still continues. • The Americans set up an administration under HamidKarzai – but real power in much of the country is in the hands of local warlords. • A decade of war left nothing resolved and the conflict seems more and more to parallel the Soviet experience – though with lower casualties.

47. Response to 9-11 • The US administration sought to use global sympathy to push a larger agenda. • George W. Bush proclaimed a “War on Terror.” Many observers noted that this was an illogical concept – one can fight a particular group or country...but a tactic? • The declaration was largely unchallenged in the aftermath of 9-11, however.

48. Response to 9-11 • The US passed the Patriot Act, which drastically curtailed civil rights – allowing arrest and detention without establishing cause. • A detention camp was set up at Guantanamo Bay – specifically to avoid possible interference by courts in the (mis)treatment of prisoners. • Other countries also passed similar laws, though none so far-reaching as the US.

49. Response to 9-11 • Bush went on to talk of “an axis of evil” including Iran, Iraq and North Korea – all contributors to global terrorism. • In June, he enunciated the so-called Bush Doctrine, claiming for America the right to take pre-emptive action against its enemies anywhere in the world – without international sanction. The lack of serious public debate of this pronouncement was astonishing – but clearly limited by public fear in the aftermath of 9-11.

50. Response to 9-11 • Within the US government, the hawks won the day. • In September, 2002 Iraq announced that UN weapons inspectors could look for weapons of mass destruction in the country – to prevent a Bush-led pre-emptive strike. • The US claimed Iraq was continuing secret chemical and nuclear weapon production. • Colin Powell addressed the UN Security Council, presenting intelligence supporting the US position. • What he seems not to have known is that Vice President Cheney’s office cited dubious intelligence and ignoring the CIA information on this file.