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LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES PART 0: FRAMEWORK

LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES PART 0: FRAMEWORK. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA . A FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON 21 ST CENTURY DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE. 1. SCOPE.

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LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES PART 0: FRAMEWORK

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  1. LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIESPART 0: FRAMEWORK Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA 

  2. A FRAMEWORK FOR A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON 21ST CENTURY DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

  3. 1. SCOPE FROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS TO A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF “THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

  4. A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.  

  5. THE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS • PEOPLE ( 7 Billion and counting) • COMMUNITIES • RECURRING EVENTS (AKA Natural Hazards), which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

  6. INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

  7. EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE OF READINESS

  8. FLOODS • SEVERE WIND STORMS • EARTHQUAKES …ETC • BEST POLICIES • BEST PRACTICES A DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE FAILURES IN POLICIES CAUSES FAILURES IN PRACTICES COUNTER MEASURES YOUR COMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

  9. PEOPLE = INNOVATION SUB-SAHARA AFRICA CARIBBEAN BASIN EUROPE 200 NATIONS AND 7+ BILLION PEOPLE NORTH AMERICA MEDITER- RANEAN SOUTH AMERICA ISLAND NATIONS ASIA

  10. LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: a continuum OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

  11. LIKE A CHAIN: a continuum HAs WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

  12. FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS • IGNORANCE • APATHY • DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES • LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

  13. THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM • 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

  14. THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE) • GOVERNMENT • DWELLINGS • SCHOOLS • HEALTH CARE FACILITIES • BUSINESSES • INFRA-STRUCTURE • ETC

  15. THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM • FLOODS • SEVERE WINDSTORMS • EARTHQUAKES • DROUGHTS • VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS • ETC.

  16. EXAMPLE OF A DISASTER

  17. RECURRING FLOODING Interactions of Planet Earth’s sun, atmosphere, litho-sphere, hydro-sphere, and biosphere cause: • Floods.

  18. INTERACTIONS OF EARTH’S CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE, CAUSE RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

  19. HAITI EARTHQUAKE JANUARY 12, 2010

  20. INTERACTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL LITHOSPHERE WITH THE OCEANIC LITHOSPHERE AND THE HYDROSPHERE CAUSE RECURRING TSUNAMIS

  21. TSUNAMI: JAPANMARCH 12, 2011

  22. TSUNAMI: OFFSHORE INDONESIA DEC. 26, 2004

  23. RECURRING SEVERE WINDSTORMS:HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, CYCLONES INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, TROPOSPHERE, AND LITHOSPHERE

  24. ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES: 2010 • Alex (H) June 21 • Bonnie July 27 • Colin Aug 3 • Danielle (H) Aug 21 • Earl (H) Aug.29 • Fiona Aug 30

  25. RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS: INTERACTIONS OF THE CORE, MANTLE, LITHOSPHERE, AND ATMOSPHERE

  26. VOLCANIC ERUPTION: ICELANDAPRIL 14, 2010

  27. RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES Planet Earth’s atmospheric-oceanic-lithospheric interactions cause: • Droughts

  28. COMMUNITY CP EVENTS S P O T WHEN AN INTERSECTION OCCURS, WILL A DISASTER OCCUR? THE CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY IS “YES” IF THE PEOPLE AND THE COMMUNITY ARE NOT READY PEOPLE

  29. LIVING WITH DISASTER RISK DECREASED CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY INCREASED DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY

  30. LIVING WITH DISASTER RESILIENCE NO DISASTER THIS TIME DEMANDS ON COMMUNITY CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITY

  31. TURNING POINTS FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE EDUCATION: PENETRATE SOCIETY IGNORANCE TO ENLIGHTENMENT BUILDING EQUITY AND PENETRATING SOCIETY APATHY TO EMPOWERMENT BOUNDARIES TO NETWORKS ENABLEMENT OF POLITICAL WILL

  32. 1. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES --- ---ARE LIKE THE SYSTEM - ANALYSIS PROCEDURES THAT FOUR BLIND PEOPLE WOULD USE TO DESCRIBE AN ELEPHANT

  33. 2. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES MUST CLOSE PRIOR KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS, ANDIDENTIFY WEAK LINKS IN THE PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

  34. CURRENT KNOWLEDGE IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR, STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

  35. KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time of the available knowledge BETWEEN organizations, disciplines, and people will always create uncertainties in choices anddifferences in capability to achieve disaster resilience.

  36. KNOWLEDGE GAPS DISCONTINUITIES in space, and time WITHIN organizations, disciplines, or individuals that create uncertainties and slow progress towards disaster resilience.

  37. STRENGTHENING WEAK LINKS BENEFITS EVERYONE IMPROVES PREPAREDNESS DISASTER RESILIENCE IMPROVES PROTECTION IMPROVES EM RESPONSEE IMPROVES RECOVERY

  38. 3. FROM A DISASTER TO DISASTER RESILIENCE A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF PAST DISASTERS LEADS TO “COUNTER MEASURES” THAT PREVENT RECURRENCES

  39. DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES Design and Implementation of policies and practices: a) to INCREASE CAPACITY of the PEOPLE, and b) to ELIMINATE VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY.

  40. STOP INCREASING COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY

  41. WHEN THE DIALOGUE IS ON THE CONTINUUMS WE CARE ABOUT, WE ALMOST NEVER LEAVE AYTHING TO CHANCE

  42. “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” • PROTECTION(BUILD TO WITHSTAND) • PREPAREDNESS (BE READY FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES)

  43. “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • (ACTIONS TO [PROTECT PEOPLE AND PROPERTY) • DISASTER RECOVERY (RESTORING COMMUNITY SYSTEMS TO NORMAL AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE)

  44. NO DISASTERS “BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES” FUNCTIONAL NETWORKING CHANNELS INFORMATION NETWORKING CHANNELS READINESS FOR A POSSIBLE DISASTER ORGANIZATION NETWORKING CHANNELS PRIVATE SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR COMMUNITY STAKEHOLDERS ACADEMIA Stratec Consulting

  45. PILLARS OF DISASTER RESILIENCE Anticipatory Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Engineering Building Codes & Standards Timely Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

  46. TYPHOON HAZARDS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • PREPAREDNESS • PROTECTION • FORECASTS/SCENARIOS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION TYPHOON RISK POLICY OPTIONS ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION COMMUNITIES HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

  47. THE CHALLENGE: BEST POLICIES AND PRACTICES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

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