Population and Demographics

1. Chapter 2: Introduction Population and Demographics

2. Study of Population • Important for three reasons – • More people alive at this time, over 7.6 billion, than @ any time in Earth’s history. • World population has increased @ a faster rate during the 2nd half of the 20th century than @ any other time in human history. • Virtually all population growth is concentrated in Less Developed Countries (LDCs).

3. Overpopulation • How would you define overpopulation? • How do geographers define overpopulation? • When an area’s population exceeds the capacity of the environment to support it at an acceptable standard of living. • What are the variables in this definition?

4. Implications of Population Growth Real Time Population Statistics @ http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ The World at Seven Billion @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0 The World’s Most Typical Person @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B2xOvKFFz4 Hans Rosling explains population growth and its implications using Ikea boxes @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg

5. Chapter 2: Key Issue 1 Where is the World’s Population Distributed?

6. World Population Cartogram

7. 100 Most Populated Cities in the World

8. Where Is the World’s Population Distributed? • Population concentrations • Two-thirds of the world’s population are in four regions: • East Asia • South Asia • Southeast Asia • Europe All of the above population clusters are located within 500 miles of ocean coasts.

9. Four Population Clusters • East Asia • 1/5 (20%) of world’s population • China – 83% of East Asia’s population • China vs. Japan • Concentrated not distributed • South Asia • 1/5 (20%) of world’s population • India – 75% of South Asia’s population • Rural • Southeast Asia • 1/12 of the world’s population • Islands/coastal • Rural • Europe • Western, Eastern, Western Russia • 1/9 world’s population • Well developed infrastructure • Urban (75% live in cities)

10. Population Distribution

11. Where Is the World’s Population Distributed? • The ecumene – regions of permanent settlement • Has expanded with increased technology and possibilism • Sparsely populated regions • People generally avoid: • Dry lands • Wet lands • Cold lands • High lands

12. Population Density vs. Climate

13. Arithmetic Density of the World

14. Physiological Density of the World Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relationship between population & agricultural resources in a society. The higher the number the greater the pressure to grow enough food.

15. Agricultural Density of the World

16. Think Geographically – Think Population 1. List three positive ways the world has changed in the last 1,000 years. 2. List three problems associated with this change 3. List three ways you think the world will change in the next 100 years Population:The shape of things to come

17. Chapter 2: Key Issue 2 Where has the world’s population increased?

18. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvo6ls7edUQ Back to Population Statistics…

19. Birth Rate (CBR) • Calculated how? • CBR is # of births/total population x 1,000 • High =40+ Low = <15 • Wealth and CBR • Positive/negative correlation? • Exceptions: China (12) E. Europe (12). Low wealth and high CBR. Otherwise, high wealth, low CBR. • Highest: Chad (48) and Niger (50) • Lowest: Germany/Bosnia/Japan @ 8 • U.S.: 13 • World average = 20 • MDCs = 11, Dev = 22, w/o China = 24, LDCs = 33

20. Death Rate (CDR) • Calculated? • CDR is # of deaths/population x 1,000 • High = 18 Low = <10 • Stat can change dramatically • War, pandemic, famine, etc. • W. Hem in 16th Century was 900/1,000 • Highest: Lesotho (21) • Lowest: U.A.E and Qatar (1) • U.S.: 8

21. Natural Increase Rate (NIR) or (RNI) • Calculated how? • NIR is CBR-CDR/1,000 • Ex: CBR 20 CDR 5 then NIR = 15/1000 = 1.5% • High = 2-3% Low = Less than 1% • U.S. = .54% • Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden, U.K., Belgium, France, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland, Albania, Kosovo, Spain have slightly +NIR. A number of others have a 0 or negative NRI. Why? • Highest in world = Niger @ 3.9%

22. Current Population Growth Rate

23. Developed vs. Developing • Why is population growth lower in developed countries? Why is it higher in less developed countries?

24. Doubling Time • Definition? • The # of years needed to double a population, assuming a constant rate of natural increase. • Rule of 70 • doubling time = 70/annual growth rate • Ex. A growth rate of 3.5 percent represents a doubling time of 20 years. (70/3.5 = 20) • World’s doubling time is 64 years • At 1% growth rate it takes 70 years to double • At 2% growth rate takes 35 years to double • U.S. = 70/.9% = 78 years

25. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) • Definition? • Average # of children a woman will have during her childbearing years (15-49). • 2.5 for the world today. In 1970 it was 4.7. • 2.33 = stability or the “replacement rate” • 2.1 in industrialized nations • 2.5+ in peripheral country • Comparisons: • High: Niger (7.6), South Sudan (7.0), Chad (6.6), Somalia (6.6) • Low: Singapore (1.2), South Korea (1.2),Taiwan (1.1), Denmark (1.7) • U.S.: 1.9 • Lower fertility rates: Cause for optimism? OR More problems?

26. TFR 2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate#/media/File:Countriesbyfertilityrate.svg

27. Infant Mortality Rates (IMR) • Definition? • Total # of deaths in a year among infants under 1 year of age for every 1,000 live births. • Not included: abortions or miscarriages • Contrast MDC v. LDC • Comparisons: • High: C.A.R. (116) , D.R.C. (109), Afghanistan (was 208, now 74) Pakistan (74) • Low: Japan (1.9) Finland, Iceland (1.8) Singapore (2.0) • U.S.: 5.4 • World: 38. In 1970 was 89. MDCs =5, Dev = 42 w/o China = 46, LDCs = 64. In 1970 was 150.

28. Life Expectancy# years an individual can expect to live @ current social, economic, and medical conditions.

29. What do you predict your life expectancy to be? • http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html • Almost 2.5 million Americans died last year • 650,000 heart disease • 550,000 cancer • 150,000 stroke • 73,000 diabetes • Comparisons: • High: Japan (83, females 86) Singapore (83, Females 85) • U.S.: 79, females 81. males: 76. • Low: Botswana (47), Sierra Leone (45), Lesotho (44) • World avg.: (71), in 1970 it was 58.

30. Dependency Ratio • Definition? • # of people under the age of 15 & over 64, compared to the #of people in the active labor force. • Calculated: (Pop. <15) + (65+) divided by working-age population (those aged 15-64) • Dependency ratio tells us how strained a country’s working population is. • Ex. Dependency ratio of 0.9 means there are 9 dependants for every 10 working-age people.

31. Chapter 2: Key Issue 3 Why is population increasing at different rates in different countries?

32. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) A geographic model that divides a country’s development into 4 stages based on its population growth.

33. Demographic Transition

34. Stage 1: Low Growth • In Stage 1 death rates and birth rates are both high and fluctuate rapidly according to natural events, such as drought and disease, to produce a relatively constant and young population. • Hunting & gathering societies • Unstable food sources • High death, high birth, low population growth • No country is in Stage 1.

35. Stage 2: High Growth • In Stage 2 the death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, which increase life spans and reduces disease. These changes usually come about due to improvements in farming techniques, access to technology, basic healthcare, and education. Without a corresponding fall in birth rates, this produces an imbalance, and the countries in Stage 2 experience a large increase in population. • Agricultural societies • Basic farming - no technology • Stable food sources • Sharp increase in population • Death rate declines sharply • Most African countries are in Stage 2

36. Stage 3: Decreasing Growth • In Stage 3 birth rates fall due to access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, and other social changes. Population growth begins to level off. • Industrial societies • Mechanized farming • Children don’t work, more women work - TFR goes down • Birth Rate drops. Why? • Death rate already low keeps falling. Why?

37. Stage 4: Low Growth • During Stage 4 there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Italy, Spain and Japan, leading to a shrinking population. The large group born during Stage 2 ages and creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries. • Tertiary / Service-Based Societies • Birth & death rates almost equal • Zero population growth • Fewer children - Why?

38. Stage 5: Declining Growth • Entry into Stage 5 of the DTM is theoretical. In Stage 5 a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death rate becomes higher than the birth rate.

39. Stage 5: Declining Growth In recent years a few countries, primarily in Eastern and Southern Europe, have reached a negative rate of natural increase as their death rates are higher than their birth rates. Possible examples of Stage 5 countries are Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Ukraine.

40. Let’s sum up the DTM • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1dIAtvSFLM

41. Chapter 2 Key Issue 4 Why Might the world face an overpopulation problem?

42. Malthus • Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) – English economist who first argued that the world’s rate of population increase was far outrunning the development of food supplies. His view remains influential today. • An Essay on the Principle of Population • Population increasesgeometrically • Food supply increases arithmetically • Relationship between people and food • Today = 1 person, 1 unit of food • In 25 years = 2 persons, 2 units of food • In 50 years = 4 persons, 3 units of food • In 75 years = 8 persons, 4 units of food • In 100 years = 16 persons, 5 units of food

43. Beyond Malthus Neo-Malthusians • Argue that two characteristics of recent population growth make Malthus’s thesis more frightening in today’s world. 1. Rapid population growth in poor countries caused by the transfer of medical technology, without the transfer of wealth or resources. 2. World population growth is outstripping total resources, not just food production. Malthus’s Critics • Criticism aimed at both the population growth and resource depletion elements of the theory - • Resources – Fixed or not fixed/ possibilism • Population growth could stimulate production • Distribution could be better handled • More people = more brain power • More people = more power

44. Declining Birth RatesMalthus Theory and Reality Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the second half of the twentieth century. • Better growing techniques • Higher-yielding seeds • Cultivation of more land/more arable land

45. Reasons for Declining Birth Rates • Natural Increase Rate (NIR) can decline for only two reasons – • Lower birth rates • Higher death rates • Reasons for declining birth rates • Economic development • Distribution of contraceptives

46. World Health Threats • Natural Increase Rate – Lower birth rates or higher death rates? • Epidemiology – The branch of medical science concerned with incidence, distribution, and control of diseases that affect large numbers of people. • Epidemiologic Transition – Focuses on distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition. • Originally formulated by Abdel Omran in 1971

47. Epidemiologic TransitionStages 1 and 2 • Stage 1/Black Plague – The stage of pestilence and famine • Stage 2/Cholera – The stage of receding pandemics • Pandemic – A disease that occurs over a wide geographical area, and affects a very high proportion of the population.

48. Epidemiologic TransitionStages 3 and 4 • Stage 3 – The stage of degenerative and human-created diseases • Decline of infectious diseases • Heart disease • Cancer • Stage 4 – The stage of delayed degenerative diseases • Medical advances

49. Epidemiologic TransitionStage 5 • Stage 5 – The stage of the reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases • 3 reasons of explanation • Evolution • Poverty • Improved Travel