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First experiments with KENDA for providing ICs to COSMO-It- EPS

First experiments with KENDA for providing ICs to COSMO-It- EPS. Chiara Marsigli Tiziana Paccagnella Andrea Montani ARPA Emilia-Romagna, SIMC. Set-up for the experiments. DA cycle : 3-hourly cycles , 36 hours 10 members BCs from COSMO-LEPS ( also ICs for cold start )

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First experiments with KENDA for providing ICs to COSMO-It- EPS

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  1. First experiments with KENDA for providing ICs to COSMO-It-EPS Chiara Marsigli Tiziana Paccagnella Andrea Montani ARPA Emilia-Romagna, SIMC

  2. Set-up for the experiments • DA cycle: • 3-hourly cycles, 36 hours • 10 members • BCsfrom COSMO-LEPS (alsoICsforcold start) • no modelperturbations • observations: TEMP SYNOP ACARS AMDAR • Forecast: • 10 members • 36h forecastrange • Parameterperturbations • BCsfrom COSMO-LEPS

  3. Test cases (Hymex SOP)

  4. Issues under investigation A remark: preliminarytestswith a “basic” KENDA set-up • Analysiscycle: • Capabilityof KENDA toaddperturbations at the small scale (spectra) • DifferencesbetweenKENDA-derivedanalyses and downscaledanalyses (spectra, spread, maps) • Qualityof the analyseswithrespecttoobservations (area average) • Forecast: • Qualityof the ensemble forecastwithrespecttoobservations, comparedwithdownscaling ensemble (area average, mapsofprecipitation)

  5. 2012102512 - T level 50 kenda int2lm

  6. 2012102512 - T level 40 kenda int2lm

  7. 2012102512 - T level 30 kenda int2lm

  8. 2012102512 - T level 20 kenda int2lm

  9. 2012102512 - T level 10 kenda int2lm

  10. 2012102512 - T level 1 kenda int2lm

  11. 2012102512 – analysis T level 50 kenda int2lm mean spread

  12. kenda downscaling 2012102512 – analysis spread T level 40 T level 30

  13. kenda downscaling 2012102512 – analysis spread T level 20 T level 10

  14. 2012101112 – analysis T level 50 kenda int2lm mean spread

  15. 2012101112 – analysis T level 40 kenda int2lm mean spread

  16. 2012101112 – analysis T level 30 kenda int2lm mean spread

  17. 2012092512 - T2m areaTOT - downscaling

  18. 2012092512 - T2m areaTOT - kendaICs

  19. 2012092612 - T2m areaTOT - downscaling

  20. 2012092612 - T2m areaTOT - kendaICs

  21. 2012101112 - T2m areaTOT - downscaling

  22. 2012101112 - T2m areaTOT - kendaICs

  23. 2012102512 - T2m areaTOT - downscaling

  24. 2012102512 - T2m areaTOT - kendaICs

  25. One “bad” case

  26. 20121011 16-17 UTC downscalingICs kendaICs

  27. One “good” case

  28. downscalingICs fc + 12 h 20120926 12-24 UTC by V. Poli

  29. kendaICs fc + 12 h 20120926 12-24 UTC by V. Poli

  30. CH2EPS – tp1h – areaLT

  31. kendaIC – tp1h – areaLT

  32. Concludingremarks • Analysiscycle: • KENDA isableto introduce small scale perturbations • KENDA analyseshaveless spread thatdownscaledanalyses, especially at low levels • KENDA analysesnotalwaysclosertoobservationthandownscaledanalyses • Forecast: • Good performance forone case • Bad performance forone case -> explore the impact of: • Addingmodelperturbations in the analysiscycle • Run more ensemble members in the DA cycle • Tune KENDA parameters • Importanceof assimilate precipitation ?

  33. KENDA suite

  34. Modelperturbations in the forecast ensemble

  35. Heghtof the levels

  36. Modelperturbationsexperiment in the KENDA suite

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