Stress waves as precursors of earthquakes

1. Stress waves as precursors of earthquakes Special presentation for „Committee of Risk at Crimea“ May 7, 2014, Simferopol P. Kalenda1,L. Neumann2, A.V. Nazarevych3, L.E. Nazarevych4, V.O. Nasonkin5, O.V. Boborykina5 1 ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i., 2 ANECT Praha a.s., 3Carpathian Branch of Subbotin Name Institute of Geophysics of NAS of Ukraine, 4Subbotin nameInstitute of Geophysics of NAS of Ukraine, 5National Taurida V.Vernadsky University

2. Волны по напряжению– предшественникземлетрясений Специальная презентация для "Крымского экспертного Совета по оценке сейсмической опасности и прогнозу землетрясений “ 7 Мая 2014г. Симферопол П. Календа1,Л. Нейманн2, А.В. Назаревич3, Л.Е.Назаревич4, В.А. Насонкин5, О.В. Боборыкина5 1 ÚSMH AV ČR, v.v.i., 2 ANECT Praha a.s., 3Carpathian Branch of Subbotin Name Institute of Geophysics of NAS of Ukraine, 4Subbotin nameInstitute of Geophysics of NAS of Ukraine, 5National Taurida V.Vernadsky University

3. Agenda1) Vertical static pendulum2) Asperity model and indirect stress measurement3) Detection of stress waves and earthquake prediction4) Resume

4. 1) Vertical static pendulum A – point of suspension of pendulum B – point of suspension of camera 1 – suspension of pendulum 2 – pendulum 3 – micro raster 4 – attenuation 5 – suspension of camera 6 – camera 7 – microscope 8 – light

5. Vertical static pendulum – in real operation

6. Vertical static pendulum – image processing 2D measurement Resolution = 1 pixel = about 200 nm Image size 800x600 pixel Image sampling rate = about 10s Image transformation into contour On-line X-Y position change evaluation = image parametric transformation Backup real and contour images -> measurement quality evaluation Adaptive algorithms: • image processing • parametric transformation reference sampling

7. Real movement of picture - time step between pictures is 30 minutes

8. Localization of pendulums green – in operation blank – in preparation

9. Vertical static pendulum – in real operationBeregovo

10. Vertical static pendulum – in real operationFortress No35Sevastopol

11. 2) Asperity model and indirect stress measurement a – proportional limit b – upper yield limit c – lower yield limit d – failure limit (σy, εy) – deformation on the proportional limit σd – tensile strength εd - tensibility

12. 2) Asperity model – dependence of nucleation period on magnitude

13. 2) Asperity model and spectrum of stress waves Periods – days, weeks Wave lengths – whole Earth

14. Typicalanomalyfromvertical static pendulumat Ida minechangeoftilt, highernoise, pulsesExampleofCostaRica M7.6

15. 3) Earthquake prediction – anomalous tilt before Tonga M=7.6 EQ

16. Prediction based on the detection of anomalous stress – Kurily November 24, 2008 mb=7.3 – oficially predicted Diurnal period of noise Beginning of nucleation phase s.s.

17. Prediction based on the detection of anomalous stress – Okhotsk Sea August 14, 2012 mb=7.7 – oficially predicted Beginning of nucleation phase s.s. Diurnal period of noise

18. Prediction based on the detection of anomalous stress – Okhotsk Sea August 14, 2012 mb=7.7 – oficially predicted Beginning of nucleation phase s.s. First ?? precursors

19. Prediction based on the detection of anomalous stress – Okhotsk Sea August 14, 2012 mb=7.7 – oficially predicted Beginning of nucleation phase s.s. First ?? precursors

20. Anomaly at pendulum in cave No. 13C before Okhotsk Sea EQ M 8.3, May 24, 2013 Peaks around midnight Diurnal periods 30 days

21. Example of anomalous tilt before Iran-Pakistan border, April 16, 2013 M=7.8 Main shock M7.8 On April 11, 2013 I obtained the alert message from IEVPC group about possible M8 EQ at Samoa region. Beginning of nucleation phase Peaks before noon I answered on April 15: We compared the recent tilt development with that before Samoa 2009 EQ (M8.1) and we stated that the situation is different. We can observe now (since April 4, 2013) that there are big stress waves on N-S fault and maxima of peaks are before noon, which show us the position of the local meridian of the asperity approximetaly 60° to the east from Central Europe, which could be at 70°E (Pakistan-Afghanistan?).

22. The length of the nucleation period dependent on magnitude

23. Resume • The vertical static pendulums can measure the changes of horizontal stress in real time. • The stress waves result from the nonlinear behaviour of the massif. • The „stress waves“ precede the strongest EQs and they are detectable everywhere before M7.5 EQs. • The first precursors before M7 EQs are detectable week before the mainshock. • The response of the massif on the stress waves depends on the local conditions. • Three EQs with M>7 were sucsessfully predicted in 2012 (EGU 2013).

24. Thank you for your attention