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JHSAT Status Briefing to IHST June 29, 2006

JHSAT Status Briefing to IHST June 29, 2006. Mark Liptak FAA ANE-110 Jack Drake HAI. JHSAT Status Briefing. Objective: Brief the IHST on the status of the JHSAT Obtain IHST concurrence on key program elements, avoid surprises or questions downstream: dataset selection

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JHSAT Status Briefing to IHST June 29, 2006

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  1. JHSAT Status Briefing to IHST June 29, 2006 Mark Liptak FAA ANE-110Jack Drake HAI

  2. JHSAT Status Briefing Objective: Brief the IHST on the status of the JHSAT Obtain IHST concurrence on key program elements, avoid surprises or questions downstream: dataset selection adequacy of team membership scoring criteria general program timing outreach approach use of existing safety reports

  3. JHSAT Status Briefing Slide Topics: Synopsis Charter Web Site Team Composition Dataset Selection Process Flow - Timing/Schedule JHSAT Scoring Criteria Establishing Standard Problem Statements Scoring Method International Partners Leveraging Existing Safety Reports Issues for IHST Awareness/Concurrence

  4. SynopsisThe JHSAT team is fairly well solidified, 14 members, making progress on adapting the CAST/JSAT process for analysis of helicopter events. We’re off to a good start. Team members are enthusiastic about the basic CAST process, believing it will produce high value results. Have engaged in many detailed discussions on dataset selection, event scoring, data quality, mission diversity, etc. Recent meetings spent evolving and detailing the JHSAT process and analyzing helicopter accident event data. We have made significant progress, but its been more time consuming than expected. Looking for ways to boost efficiency. Industry is stretched thin, IHST should consider reiterating it’sappreciation for the commitment needed to make this happen. The following slides contain information on key JHSAT topics.

  5. CharterFinal charter developed and agreed to by team, posted on JHSAT web site: Goal: Provide a prioritized assessment of the most safety critical hazards to commercial, private and military rotorcraft in worldwide operations as derived from selected rotorcraft data sources. Provide intervention strategies to the IHST and Joint Helicopter Safety Implementation Team (JHSIT) that maximize the likelihood of reducing worldwide helicopter accident rates by 80 percent by 2016. Provide a JHSAT report documenting the team’s findings to the IHST by 1Q 2007.

  6. Web Site The JHSAT has established a web site at http://www.ihst.org/jhsat/jhsat_top.htm Id=jhsat, password=helicoptersafe This is an access controlled site, please limit to the IHST only. The JHSAT is using it to post NTSB data, team analysis results, meeting minutes, agendas, action lists, etc.

  7. JHSAT Team Composition Mark Liptak (FAA ANE) JHSAT co-chairJack Drake (HAI) JHSAT co-chair Barry Rohm (Rolls Royce) Ray Wall (Bristow) Roy Fox (Bell) Tony Alfalla (Sikorsky) Ed Stockhausen (Airmethods) Joe Syslo (Eurocopter) Laura Iseler (IHST) Sandy Hart (NASA) Clark Davenport (FAA ASW) Matt Rigsby (FAA ASW) Ann Azevedo (FAA Risk consultant) Steve Gleason (Schweizer) JHSAT team membership is light on small helicopter experts. We have discussed participation with Robinson, they do not appear too enthusiastic. Schweizer has committed only as a part time participant. Industry is stretched thin and long term commitment is difficult. We could use additional support from the pilot/operational side and perhaps a training expert.

  8. JHSAT Dataset SelectionThe initial dataset selected for JHSAT analysis is year 2000 NTSB accidents. This will serve as the basis for the 1Q 07 report out. The JHSAT will conduct a detailed analysis of these accidents. There are approximately 190 accidents to be analyzed. This NTSB dataset is nearly fully populated with final narrative causal/factual information. Also, less likely to encounter litigation constraints with this dataset. Consideration of accident causal factor trends for the last 24 years gives the team high confidence that detailed analysis of year 2000 events will yield high value recommendations that will mitigate long standing trends (see next slide) Future JHSAT activity will target year 2001, 2002, etc.

  9. 24 year look back – Relative stability in helicopter accident causal factors Final causaldata not yet fully developed US dataset represents 50% of worldwide fleet

  10. JHSAT Basic Process Flowchart CharterDevelopment EstablishTeam Select Data Set ReviewNTSBDocket Data DevelopEventSequence Identify InterventionStrategies ScoreProblemValidity &Importance ScoreInterventionAbility/Usage Assign StdProblem Statements IdentifyProblems(what/why) Yes TechnicalReview&Expert Validation Conflicts? Prioritize byOverallEffectiveness ReportResults No IHST JHSIT

  11. JHSAT ProcessJHSAT is structured to be similar to the CAST/JSAT processwhich has been highly successful in the part 121 community Basic tenets: Engaging stakeholders/experts from the helicopter community Findings based on real world helicopter accident data Recommendations ranked by a structured scoring method JHSAT is sticking to these basic tenets but making significant modifications elsewhere in the process. Our last two meetings have centered around completing foundational process work and processing the event data.

  12. JHSAT Scoring Criteria JSAT Scoring Criteria

  13. JHSAT Scoring Criteria The scoring criteria used by the JHSAT are similar to those used in CAST/JSAT with the following exceptions: JSAT’s Applicability was a forward look at fleet characteristics and assessing intervention effectiveness. JHSAT has eliminated this criterion due to the belief that future fleet mix and mission will not change enough to make this a meaningful issue to consider. JHSAT has added a Validity criterion. This is a scoring factor based on the spectrum of documentation of helicopter accidents. Some are very well documented, others very poorly. The Confidence and Usage criteria are similar, however some of the detailed definition language is still being worked.

  14. Determination of Standard Problem Statements (SPS) A key element to the JSAT process is establishing standard problem statements (SPS) when identifying specific causal factors in accidents. Correctly executed, this allows for identifying high value common threads between accidents, and thus identifies high value mitigation areas. JHSAT is developing a standard problem statement list from three sources: To jumpstart our process we drew from the SPS developed by the HAAT team(1). We also pulled SPS statements determined to be applicable from the CAST SPS list (~500 topics) These two sources gave us a starting point. As we analyze events we are continuing to populate our SPS list with unique helicopter problem areas as we encounter them. (1) Helicopter Accident Analysis Team, NASA, circa 1997, early version of the Boeing APS/CAST JSAT process.

  15. Scoring Method The JSAT process developed and used an arithmetic relationship to rank recommendations by an Overall Effectiveness (OE) rating. Using the scoring criteria from the previous slide, the relationship is as follows: OE = ((I x A) x 2/(I +A)) x C/6 x App/6 This relationship places weighting factors on the Importance and Applicability scoring criteria. The JHSAT has not yet made a determination on whether a weighted arithmetic relationship is appropriate. We have intentionally constructed our scoring criteria such that we will have flexibility later in the process to use a variety of arithmetic relationships to help identify the most effective recommendations.

  16. Coordinating JHSAT US and International Efforts JSAT ProcessUnderstandingRefining Expert Review/Validation USDataset Selection JHSAT Analysis TechReview May-Dec 06 Jan 07 Mar/Apr 06 Jan 07 May/June 06 First SetUS MitigationRecs Indoctrinate in JHSATProcess IdentifyFCAA &MilitaryPartners ConductJHSATbased analyses MitigationRecsFCAA & Mil 1Q 07 TBD 07 Sept 06 TBD 07 TBD 06/07 MitigationRecs - Global 4Q 07

  17. Coordinating JHSAT US and International Efforts US CivilDataset Selection (1/2 of helicopters Worldwide) JSAT ProcessUnderstandingRefining Expert Review/Validation JHSAT Analysis TechReview 1Q 07 May-Dec 06 Jan 07 Jan 07 May/June 06 First SetUS MitigationRecs Mar/Apr 06 FCAA & Military Partners conductJHSATanalyses on their accident data Train FCAA & Military Partners in JHSATProcess MitigationRecsFCAA & Mil IdentifyFCAA &MilitaryPartners 4Q 07 MitigationRecs - Global Sept 06 TBD 07 TBD 06/07 TBD 07 IHST

  18. Coordinating JHSAT US, International and Military Sources Matt Rigsby from FAA-ASW will be acting as the contact point for identifying overseas and military partners. To date we have interest from: Canada – may use Canada as a test case, good dataset, strong interest, close proximity EASA, UK, Australia, Chile, US Navy Looking into: Brazil, Japan Any other entities that possess large helicopter accident datasets that could be processed by the JHSAT method will be considered.

  19. Leveraging Existing Safety Reports JHSAT is reviewing the recommendations of the following reports: NASA - U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 Through 1997 NASA - Analysis of US Civil Rotorcraft Accidents from 1990 to 1996 and Implications for a Safety Program NASA - ASRS Rotorcraft Incident Study - Draft Data Summary Aviation Safety Reporting System NASA - Helicopter Accident Analysis Team AMPA - A Safety Review and Risk Assessment in Air Medical Transport CRS - Report for Congress - Military Aviation Safety OGP - Safety Performance of Helicopter Operations in the Oil and Gas Industry - 2000 Data TSB Canada - Lessons Learned from TSB Investigation of Helicopter Accidents (1994 - 2003) Bell Textron - History of Helicopter Safety Other NTSB and international reports may be considered. Approach: Identify recommendations that call for systemic change via oversight, policy, SOP development, investment areas, etc. Examples are changes to safety culture across the industry, adopting SMS approaches, foundational work for universal adoption of a new technology. Recommendations calling for specific design changes, specific training topics, specific changes to specific platforms or operational missions, etc, will not be considered at this point. We will allow the JHSAT process and NTSB data to guide us on the latter type of recommendation.

  20. Issues for IHST Awareness/Concurrence Dataset selection will be NTSB year 2000 accidents. Team membership is light on small helicopter pilots/ops, may need help from IHST to push for renewed commitment from some industry members. Scoring criteria adapted from that used in the CAST/JSAT. General JHSAT program timing (slide 15) Early work underway to identify international partners, will teach them the JHSAT process and have them analyze their own datasets. Reviewing existing safety reports for systemic change recommendations, if any identified they will be passed to the IHST/JHSIT this summer/fall.

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