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First R esults of Thunderstorm Forecast Verification in Terminal Aerodrome Forecast s in Croatia

First R esults of Thunderstorm Forecast Verification in Terminal Aerodrome Forecast s in Croatia. Jadran Jurković and Igor Kos Croatia control Ltd, MET Division Croatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012. Croatia Control Ltd. Introduction.

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First R esults of Thunderstorm Forecast Verification in Terminal Aerodrome Forecast s in Croatia

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  1. First Results of Thunderstorm Forecast Verification in Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts in Croatia Jadran Jurković and Igor Kos Croatia control Ltd, MET Division Croatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

  2. Introduction • Part of Quality management system (ICAO Annex 3) • Forecasts Improvement • Understand correct, miss, false alarm events • Verification of special problems • Convection (TS) • Fog (reduced visibility) • Wind (especially bora events) • Thunderstorm (TS) • Mesoscale phenomenon (deep and moist convection) • Month with max. frequency of days with TS has 12-25% • Impact on aviation First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

  3. Verification- a larger view = ≠ REAL STATE OF ATMOSPHERE FORECASTER’S PICTURE WEATHER FORECAST OBSERVED WEATHER • TAF(T=9/24 ∀3/6h) • Surface wind • Direction • Speed • Gusts • Visibility • Present weather • Cloud • Amount • Height of cloud base • [TCU/CB] Change groups -BECMG -FROM -TEMPO -PROBABILITY 30/40 • TAF • Surface wind • Direction • Speed • Gusts • Visibility • Present weather • Cloud • Amount • Height of cloud base • [TCU/CB] Change groups -BECMG -FROM -TEMPO -PROBABILITY 30/40 • METAR • Surface wind • Direction • Speed • Gusts • Visibility • Runway visual range (RVR) • Present weather • Cloud • Amount • Height of cloud base • [TCU/CB] • T i Td • Atmospheric pressure • Recent weather • Wind shear • State of the runway • Trend forecast • METAR (∀30min) • Surface wind • Direction • Speed • Gusts • Visibility • Runway visual range (RVR) • Present weather • Cloud • Amount • Height of cloud base • [TCU/CB] • T i Td • Atmospheric pressure • Recent weather • Wind shear • State of the runway • Trend forecast • Input • Forecaster • skill, experience, education • Available toolsand materials • Models • quality, interpretation, availability • Observation system • Climatology • Technical details • Criteria for weather elements, format • System supervision • Education system • Customer requirements VERIFICATION First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

  4. Approach • Method similar to Austrocrontrol’s Mahringer (2008) • TAF, two basic principles • forecast for time periods • contains a range of forecast conditions • Each hour • Example for TS TAF LDSP 230500Z 2306/2406 11010KT 9999 FEW050 TEMPO 2308/2320 RA PROB30 TEMPO 2310/2406 TSRA FEW030CB BKN040 BECMG 2311/2313 18012KT BECMG 2316/2318 VRB02KT= First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

  5. Data • Forecasts for 6 airport in Croatia • Inland: Zagreb (LDZA), Osijek (LDOS) • Onshore: Pula (LDPL), Zadar (LDZD), Split (LDSP), Dubrovnik (LDDU) • Period 2009-2011 • ~500,000 forecasted hours • Contingency tables for each airport First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

  6. Results • Bias • Proportion correct (PC) First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

  7. Results • PC - better for inland airports and LDPL • Climatology • Bias similar results • LDPL smallest bias-local characteristics First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

  8. Conclusions • Verification has been initiated • Frequency of hours with TS ~1-1.5% • Better scores when forecast TS period is shorter • Less bias at inland airports due to pronounced daily and yearly maxima • Localfeatures • Future work (in progress): • Details for every miss and false alarm event • Synoptic situations • Lead time and duration THANK YOU jadran.jurkovic@crocontrol.hr, igor.kos@crocontrol.hr Acknowledgement to Ms. Laurette Rako for helping with translation First Results of Thunderstorms Forecast Verification in TAF in CroatiaCroatian-USA Workshop on Mesometeorology 18-20 June 2012 Croatia Control Ltd.

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