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We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Update Kyle L. Olsen North Asia Regional Aviation Safety Team Beijing - May 2006. We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety. Airplanes in service. 32,495. 18,621. Boeing 12,351. Hull loss accidents per year. Business as usual. 2001. 2021.

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We Need to Continuously Improve Aviation Safety

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  1. Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)Update Kyle L. OlsenNorth Asia Regional Aviation Safety TeamBeijing - May 2006

  2. We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety Airplanes in service 32,495 18,621 Boeing 12,351 Hull loss accidentsper year Business as usual 2001 2021 Reductions possible with continued Industry effort Departures, Millions Hull loss accident rate* *Accident, Airplanes in Service and Departure data are estimated through 31 December 2004

  3. Worldwide Airline Hull Loss Accidents Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004 100 73 80 60 Total Hull Losses = 177 Number of Hull Losses Landing, Loss of Control, and CFIT Hull Losses 120 or 67% 40 27 20 20 12 9 5 0 Controlled flight into terrain Loss of control in flight Landing Refused takeoff On- Ground Misc. Fuel Exhaustion

  4. Worldwide Airline Fatalities Classified by Accident Type 1995 – 2004 1,999 1,599 Number of Fatalities Total fatalities – 5,828 CFIT and Loss of Control Fatalities 3,598 or 62 % 420 339 231 225 136 Controlled flight into terrain Loss of control in flight Landing Mid- Air collision In- Flight fire Fuel tank explosion Structure Number of fatal accidents (78 total) 22 21 2 2 2 1 15

  5. CAST Organizational Structure

  6. CAST Goals • Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

  7. CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing GE* RAA FSF • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO** • JAA • TCC • NATCA** • NTSB** • EASA Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing P&W and RR ** Observer

  8. Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) • Data analyses • Safety enhancement development Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT)

  9. Safer Skies COMMERCIAL AVIATION Controlled Flight GENERAL AVIATION Into Terrain CABIN SAFETY Aeronautical Loss of Control Decisionmaking Passenger Interference Loss of Control Uncontained Engine Failures Weather Passenger Seat Belt Use Runway Incursion Controlled Flight Carry-on Baggage Into Terrain Approach and Landing Child Restraint Survivability Weather Turbulence Runway Incursions HUMAN FACTORS IMPROVED DATA IN OPERATIONS & & ANALYSIS MAINTENANCE

  10. Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction 100% 10000 APPROVED PLAN Risk Reduction 9000 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8000 75% 7000 6000 Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements 50% 5000 Resource Cost ($ Millions) 2007 2020 4000 3000 25% 2000 1000 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level)

  11. CAST Safety Plan 31 Completed Safety Enhancements • Safety Culture • Maintenance Procedures • Flight Crew Training • Air Traffic Controller Training • Uncontained Engine Failures • Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) • Standard Operating Procedures • Precision Approaches • Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems • Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)

  12. CAST Safety Plan (cont.) 16 Committed Safety Enhancements • Policies and Procedures • Aircraft Design • Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) • Runway Incursion Prevention • Precision Approaches (additional projects) 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

  13. CAST Implementation Status

  14. 47 Safety Enhancements 31 Complete 16 Underway 1 9 6 31

  15. CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway 6 7.9 1 15.1 2 15.0 3 .5 4 1.1 5 .4 7 7.9 8 7.9 9 .8 10 16.4 11 3.4 12 5.3 13 .8 14 5.7 15 9.2 16 .7 17 0 18 1.5 19 0.1 20 3.6 21 1.5 23 7.4 25 6.0 24 10.6 26 2.3 28 5.0 29 1.9 30 2.8 31 12.2 32 0 34 0 27 8.8 39 0 40 0 47 1.2 49 1.5 50 2.6 51 0 52 0 46 1.6 Status Chart 53 2.7 55 1.7 59 0 60 1.5 78 0 84 .8 85 1.2 Complete except for measurement COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level

  16. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003 C.I.S.1 Europe 0.7 JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 China 0.5 United States and Canada 0.4 Middle East 2.7 Asia 1.7 (Excluding China) Africa 12.3 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Oceania 0.0 World 0.74* Accidents per million departures 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. *2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available

  17. Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003 COSCAP CIS Just starting C.I.S.1 Europe 0.7 JSSI 35 SEs JAA 11 SEs EASA 62% reduction COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 27 SEs in work 60% reduction JAA - 0.6 Non JAA – 1.2 China 0.5 United States and Canada 0.4 CAST 47 SEs 30 complete 17 in work 73% reduction Middle East 2.7 Asia 1.7 (Excluding China) Africa 12.3 ASET Just forming up Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 Oceania 0.0 PAAST CFIT and ALAR World 0.74* Accidents per million departures 1 Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate. *2004 Worldwide Accident Rate ONLY, Regional rates when data available

  18. CAST SAFETY PLAN – 47SE; 31 Complete; 16 Underway 6 7.9 1 15.1 2 15.0 3 .5 4 1.1 5 .4 7 7.9 8 7.9 9 .8 10 16.4 11 3.4 12 5.3 13 .8 14 5.7 15 9.2 16 .7 17 0 18 1.5 19 0.1 20 3.6 21 1.5 23 7.4 25 6.0 24 10.6 26 2.3 28 5.0 29 1.9 30 2.8 31 12.2 32 0 34 0 27 8.8 39 0 40 0 47 1.2 49 1.5 50 2.6 51 0 52 0 46 1.6 Status Chart 53 2.7 55 1.7 59 0 60 1.5 78 0 84 .8 85 1.2 Complete except for measurement COMPLETE ON TRACK IN QUESTION LATE JIMDAT Score/2007 implementation level

  19. Precision-Like Approach Implementation“21st Century Instrument Approaches” CAST Safety Enhancements SE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 and -8

  20. Worldwide Fleet • Classic airplanes – typically equipped with electro-mechanical flight instruments, basic navigation (VOR, DME, ADF and possibly GPS Navigation (FMS)) • Standard airplanes – multi-sensor RNAV Flight Management Systems (FMS), Electronic Flight Instruments and Electronic Map Displays (Triple INS rather than GPS) • Advanced airplanes – standard airplanes with advanced navigation (GPS sensors and RNP capabilities)

  21. Precision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 • On NARAST Safety Plan • SE-3, Vertical Angles • Advisory Circular 008, “Guidance for Operators for Conducting Constant decent Final approach (CDFA) for Non-precision approaches. (November 2004)

  22. Precision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 • Not on NARAST Plan: • SE-4, Install Visual Glide Slope Indicators (VGSI) at runway ends • SE-5, Ensure installation of DME at airports where older air carrier aircraft operate • SE-6, Include 3D RNAV minima and charting specifications for approach charts.

  23. Precision-Like ApproachSE-3, -4, -5, -6, -7 & -8 continued • Not on NARAST Plan: • SE-7, RNP criteria and guidance allowing reduced landing minima • SE-8, Define the parameters for future installation of the xLS (laterally and vertically guided approach path) to runway ends not serviced by Instrument Landing System (ILS)

  24. Implementation is Essential

  25. Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2004

  26. Hull Loss Accidents Worldwide Commercial Jets (> 60,000 lbs) 1 January to 31 December 2005

  27. Safety Metrics Examples

  28. Moving Forward

  29. Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide (2007 Implementation Values) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Portion of Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RI RE ICE ARC Total CFIT ADRM FUEL LOC-I USOS Midair FIRE-NI SCF-PP SCF-NP WSTRW OTHER-BIRD Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy

  30. Safety Plan Development Accident JSITS Case studies Accident JSATS Case studies Safety Enhancements Recommended Plan Revision Emerging Risk Develop Enhancements & Metrics Incident Analysis Process Master Contributing Factors JIMDAT Review CAST Plan Changing Risk Metrics Performance To Plan Review Non- Performance Information Aviation System Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors Yes Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging Present In Master Factors FAST Hazards No Demographic Changes Identify Hazards Identify Factors 11-5-03 CAST-051R

  31. Our Goal: Make Aviation Safer by Reducing the Risk of an Accident

  32. Thank you

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