Luc Vescovi 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008

1. Challenges of Climate Change to Biodiversity Conservation in North America Luc Vescovi 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 Historical & scientificbackground Description of the CC-BIO project From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies

2. Challenges of Climate Change to Biodiversity Conservation in North America Luc Vescovi 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 Historical & scientific background Description of the CC-Bio project From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies

3. Consortiumon Regional climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change MISSIONS Members • To provide the most up to date information on the evolution of climate at regional scale 2. To increase our knowledge of the impacts of climate in different socio economic sectors Affiliated 3. To work out strategies to reduce the effects of climate change

4. Ouranos Scientific Programs Impacts and Adaptation Research and Dev. Coordination Integration Populations, Infrastructures and Northern ecosystems Energetic Resources (water, wind) Climate Simulations Historical and observed data Climate scenarios Forestry Resources Hydroclimatic Analysis Maritime Environment Water Resources and Water Systems Impacts  «Society and Environment » • Health • Transportation, Infrastructures and public safety • Agriculture • Economy • Tourism • Ecosystems and Biodiversity Research and Dev.

5. CC and biodiversity what we know Parmesan and Yohe (2003), Thomas (2005), Walther et al. (2005), Parmesan (2006) have shown that shifts in phenology and distribution of plants and animals have occurred in the last 30-40 • mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days/decade • Latitude: 6 km per decade towards poles • - Altitude: 6 m per decade

6. CC and biodiversity what we know XAT = mean annual temperature XJT = mean July temperature XST = mean summer temperature XWT = mean summer temperature XGT = mean growing season temperture TAP = total annual precipitation TSP = total summer precipitation TWP = total winter precipitation TGP = total growing season precipitation

7. Commission géologique du Canada, 2004

8. CC and biodiversity what we know At 1 km/year, Picea (spruce) would require 1,000 years, rather than 100 years of migration to keep up with the shifting boreal biome. J.R. Malcom, in Green et al. (2003) Global climate change and biodiversity. The RSPB, UK

9. Regional Quebec context Source Yagouti et al. 2008 -7.5 -5 -2.5 air temperature has increased over 1960-2005 increasing trends are becoming smaller toward the east increase in the annual total rainfall although decreasing trends during the summer nb of days with snow and total snow amounts decreased 0 2.5 5

10. Regional Quebec context

11. RegionalClimate Model • CRCM version 4 • Dynamical downscaling over a domain covering North America • Horizontal resolution ~45km; Simulated period: 1961 – 2100 • Extreme events better simulated (precipitation in particular) • Increase in annual temperature and precipitation • Different amount of change according to season Temperature Change Precipitation Change

12. Spatial repartition of biodiversity in Quebec Source: Environment Quebec (2005)

13. Regional Quebec context • We know… • Past and future climate (good regionalmodels) • Distribution of species (sometaxonomic groups betterthanothers) • Association betweenspecies distribution & climate & other variables • Whichspecies are atrisk and wherethey are • Where the protected areas are

14. Regional Quebec context • We want to know… • Which species are at risk under climate change scenarios, which will gain from climate change (phenological changes and changes in distributions) • How to deal with protected areas in the long term

15. Effects of climate change on Quebec biodiversity: from climate and niche modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 Historical background Description of the CC-BIO project Ouranos expectation: from modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies

16. Present vs future projection of habitat (vs different models) Castanea sativa Green = Stable habitat Blue = gain of new available habitat Red = loss of favorable habitats Pinus halepensis Betula nana Thuiller (2003)

17. Climate change on Quebec biodiversity: the CC-bio project Niche modeling and stakeholder involvement All species show a range of physiological tolerance to environmental conditions (ecological niche) that determines their location in geographical space

18. Originality of the project (1) The research framework, stakeholder involvement very early in the process (2) Close integration between climate models and climate envelope models (3) Use of regional climate models (4) Modeling changes in abundance (5) Using bayesian inference

19. The partners UQAR D. Berteaux U. De Montréal J.F. Anger Mc Gill B. McGill M. Humphries ÉPOQ J. Larrivée Ouranos L. Vescovi T. Logan U. Grenoble W. Thuiller S. De Blois AARQ D. Rodrigue Parks Canada D. Welch S. McCanny P. Natel C. Samson SCF (Env. Canada) F. Fournier Ducks Unlimited M. Darveau MDDEP G. Lavoie MRNF N. Desrosiers Nature Conservency J. Bonin

20. CC-Bio expected output Development of a conceptual framework to look at the effect of climate change on biodiversity and production of an atlas (e.g. Monarch-UK, US) Predict potential effects of climate change on biodiversity using high resolution climate change scenarios (MRCC outputs)

21. CC-Bio expected output Development of a conceptual framework to look at the effect of climate change on biodiversity and production of an atlas (e.g. Monarch-UK, US) Predict potential effects of climate change on biodiversity using high resolution climate change scenarios (MRCC outputs)

22. Acquiring data Museum/Herbarium data Distribution map Presence/absence Trillum undulatum CRCM selected grids Modeling Presence/absence Distribution map for T. undulatum

23. Trillum undulatum (Example of possible results) Current distribution

24. T. undulatum 2041-2070 Example of possible results Potential future distribution Gains and losses in distribution

25. T. undulatum 2071-2100 Example of possible results Potential future distribution Gains and losses distribution

26. Example of possible results : Random forest random and out of bag V. Bahn & B. McGill

27. Example of possible results V. Bahn & B. McGill

28. Example of possible results V. Bahn & B. McGill

29. Example of possible results V. Bahn & B. McGill

30. Warning Care is needed to interpret these maps: they show the future potential climatic niche of species in absence of migration barriers, and therefore may not reflect the future distribution of species. There are other drivers and many indirect impacts of climate change like changes in agriculture, forestry, water resources, land use planning which will also affect future biodiversity. Araujo & Rahbek 2006

31. CC-Bio expected output Ouranos expectations Support regional strategies of adaptation to climate change in the field of biodiversity conservation in Quebec and Canada Strengthening links between CC & biodiversity researchers and adaptation/conservation decision makers within a participatory approach context

32. Challenges of Climate Change to Biodiversity Conservation in North America 2C1F Montreal, Québec, Canada October 22, 2008 Historical & scientific background Description of the CC-Bio project From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies

33. Adaptation to climate change: passive vs active management strategies ? • A passive management strategy, whereby reserves are set aside and human influences minimized, will not work in a changing climate (see: Conservation Biology: Volume 22, Issue 3, ) • More active management strategies will be needed: • active habitat restoration to increase ecosystem resilience • creation of migration barriers for Aquatic Invasive Species • - establishment of migration corridors allowing species of conservation concern to respond to climate change • translocation of species to areas with now-suitable climate

34. Ouranos expectations From modelling to adaptation and conservation strategies How to integrate biodiversity and ecosystem methodologies in climate models, risk assessment tools, and impact analysis methods? What tools can biodiversity and conservation managers use to address multiple stressors (pollution, habitat loss, invasive species, over-harvesting) that interact with climate change? How to tailor the “ecosystem and landscape approach” and the concept of “ecological goods and services” as useful contributions to the adaptation tool kit to CC?  

35. S T A K E H O L D E R I N V O L V E M E N T Gov. Partners LANDSCAPE ECOSYSTEMS SPEC I ES G E N E S SCOPING Governmental & Scientific Partners IMPACT & VULNERABILITY PREDICTION Know. Trans. IMPACTS & VULNERABILITY EVALUATION Gov., Sci. & Public Know. Trans. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Know. Trans INTEGRATED RECOMENDATIONS FOLLOW UP DECISION MAKING Towards a programme on biodiversity and natural ecosystems TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS NORTHERN ECOSYSTEMS MARITIME ECOSYSTEMS ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

36. Thank you for your attention