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PSI scenario Primary energy consumption reference Kyoto scenario Learning curve

18 th World Energy Congress Round Table 6: Sustainability (Living in One World) Wednesday, October 24, 2001. PSI scenario Primary energy consumption reference Kyoto scenario Learning curve External cost due to air pollution The idea of an insurance fund

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PSI scenario Primary energy consumption reference Kyoto scenario Learning curve

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  1. 18th World Energy CongressRound Table 6: Sustainability (Living in One World)Wednesday, October 24, 2001 • PSI scenario • Primary energy consumption reference • Kyoto scenario • Learning curve • External cost due to air pollution • The idea of an insurance fund • Proposal for an international environmental court • Conclusions Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Some Unusual IdeasMeinrad K. Eberle, Paul Scherrer Institute

  2. Options • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions (technology, nuclear, renewables, sequestration, sinks, farming) and: consumption standards, taxation, CDM, JI, certificate trade, etc. Assuming we might get into trouble: • Establish insurance fund • Establish an international environmental court

  3. 3 2 1 0 1800 1900 2000 2100 PSI Scenario(Close to IPCC Scenario B2, Doubling of CO2 Concentration by 2100) GDP +2.8%/year Primary Energy +1.5%/year ReferenceCase CO2 Kyoto World Population CO2 Emissions Source: PSI Dissertation L. Barreto

  4. Primary Energy, Reference Scenario, World 1000000 Solar 800000 Wind Hydro Primary Energy (PJ) 600000 Nuclear Biomass Nat. Gas 400000 Oil Coal 200000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

  5. CO2 Emissions, Reference Scenario, Different World Regions 15000 12000 LA+AF Emissions (Mt C) ASIA 9000 ECOT OECD(-) 6000 NAM 2 CO 3000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

  6. Primary Energy, Kyoto Scenario, World;Full Trade Starting 2010 1000000 Solar 800000 Wind Hydro 600000 Nuclear Primary Energy (PJ) Biomass Nat. Gas 400000 Oil Coal 200000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

  7. 15000 12000 LA+AF ASIA Emissions (Mt C) 9000 ECOT OECD(-) NAM 6000 Baseline 2 CO 3000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year

  8. 100000 Nuclear, New Photovoltaics 10000 Generation Coal, New Generation 1997 Wind 1000 1995 Gas Fuel Cell Wind Gas Combined Cycle 100 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Cumulative Capacity (GW) Specific Investment Costs for Different Electricity Production Systems Depending on Installed Generation Capacity US$/kW

  9. Region/Pollutant SO2 NOx PM10 EU-15 (after Krewitt et al., 2000) 3 600 3 500 7 000 Switzerlanda (after Hirschberg et al., 2001) 7 500 9 400 11 000 Asia (after Hirschberg et al., to be published) 2 000 1 100 2 300 South America (after Krewitt et al., 2000) 150 200 450 External Costs (2000) Due to Air Pollution in US$ per Ton

  10. Cost Type/Scenario Reference Scenario Kyoto Scenario, Full Trade > 2010 CO2 Damage (Billion (2000) US$), per year 1990: 3 - 400 2020: 4 –600 2050: 5 – 900 1990: 3 - 400 2020: 3 – 500 2050: 3 – 500 Air Pollution Damage (Billion (2000) US$), per year 1990: 340 2020: 640 2050: 1 800 1990: 340 2020: 440 2050: 1 000 Cumulative Carbon Dioxide Damage, 1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 0.2 –38 0.2 – 29 Cumulative Air Pollution Damage,1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 52 34 Total Cumulative Damage,1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 52 - 90 34 – 63 Undiscounted Cumulative System Costs, 1990 – 2050 (Trillion (2000) US$) 249 259

  11. How to Feed an Insurance Fund Principle: Those who produce GHG, pay Oil: US$ 2/bbl (US$ 0.05/G gasoline) results in: US$ 2.4E12 (25y), 10.7E12 (50y) @ 5 % All fossil fuels result in: US$ 5.3E12 (25y), 24E12 (50y) @ 5 %

  12. Legal Issues – Food for Thought • Binding emission limits per country • Enhance international environmental law • Establish an international climate agency • Establish standards under which a law suit can be brought forward • Establish sanctions for non-performance • Establish an international court • Ect…..

  13. Conclusions • Reduce drastically primary energy consumption • Increase energy self-sufficiency through renewables • Establish an insurance fund • Establish an international environmental court • Remember e3: economy, ecology, equity

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