Demographic Transition Model

1. Demographic Transition Model Chapter 2, Key Issue 3

2. Stage 1: Low Growth • At about 8000 B.C., the agricultural revolution occurred when humans first domesticated plants and animals and stopped being hunter-gatherers • Food was unpredictable b/c of weather, war and disease, so the world remained at Stage 1 until 1750

3. Stage 2: High Growth • 1750-world’s population suddenly began to grow 10 x faster than in the past • Several countries moved to Stage 2 after 1750 b/c of Industrial Revolution (steam engine, mass production, etc.) • Made countries healthier—improved sanitation and food and water supplies protected against contamination

4. Stage 2 (cont.) • Europe and N. American entered Stage 2 around 1800 because of Industrial Revolution • Africa, Asia and Latin American entered in 1950s due to medical revolution

5. Stage 3: Moderate Growth • Europe and N. America entered Stage 3 in early 1900s • Asia and Latin America moved to Stage 3 in the last few years • Most of Africa still in Stage 2 today • CBR declines b/c of social customs (fewer children) • Stage 3 countries more likely to live in cities

6. Stage 4: Low Growth • TFR of approx. 2.1 produces ZPG, but immigration into the country allows a lower TFR to achieve ZPG • Most European countries now Stage 4 • The U.S. TFR has hovered around ZPG since 2000 • In Stage 4, women work outside of the home more and have smaller families

7. Russia’s negative NIR • 50 years of communist rule • Inadequate pollution control • Strong family-planning programs • Pessimism about having children in an uncertain world

8. The future • A Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model? • Higher death rates than birth rates • Irreversible population decline