Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 16 th December 2009

1. Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Steering Group Meeting 16th December 2009

2. Aims of Session • To detail methodology for disaggregating the requirement for affordable housing • To review disaggregated model outcomes • To agree assumptions for projections: future housing need/supply • To agree structure and presentation of final report

3. Baseline Housing Need Calculation for Affordable Housing

4. Current Need X (a quota) Newly Arising Need Plus Minus Supply of Affordable Housing Equals Affordable Housing Need Calculation Net Shortfall/ Surplus

5. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Current Need: Unsuitable Housing • Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175 • Concealed Households: 219 • Overcrowding: 779 • Special Needs: 3,194 • Poor Condition: 428 • Harassment: 127 • Current Need = 4,922

6. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Total Current Need – Eliminate: • ‘In situ solutions’: • Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680 • Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514 • Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242 • Then eliminate • % can meet need in private housing market • 52% households can meet market entry price • Net Current Need = 2,206

7. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Newly Arising Need • New household formation: 771 • Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%) • Existing households falling into need: 724 • Change in household circumstances including annual flow of homeless households • Newly Arising Estimate = 1,248

8. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Affordable Housing Supply • Affordable housing relets: 1,075 • Committed new affordable supply: 50 • Turnover net of units taken out of management: 0 demolitions • Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125

9. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Interim Calculation Estimate • Current need = 4,922 • Net current need = 2,206 • Net annual current need = 221 (10 years) • Annual newly arising need = 1,248 • Annual total need = 1,469 • Annual affordable supply = 1,125 • Estimated shortfall = -344 • 10 year Est. shortfall = -3,440

10. Disaggregated Calculation for Affordable Housing

11. Projecting Future Need • Aggregated Housing Needs Analysis: • assumes the current profile of housing supply can meet the type of need identified • assumes need is met over 5 year period • Disaggregated Analysis: • determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’ • detailed match of households to homes by size, area, property type and tenure • assesses if annual need is met by supply and extent to which backlog can be reduced • identifies length of time to address backlog • provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/ surplus to inform strategic planning

12. Annual Newly Arising Need Annual Supply Backlog Housing Need Matched to Area Area Size Size Type Type Residual Supply Area Size Type Residual Backlog Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated

13. Model Overview • Disaggregated Methodology • Model Assumptions • Backlog • Newly Arising Need • Supply • Model Outputs • Key Questions

14. Base Assumptions • The model is based on the 3 components of the aggregated HNADA calculation • Backlog figure • Newly arising need figure • Supply figure • 10 year projections model • Data input by HMA, Size, Type • 4 Housing Market Areas • North HMA (Brechin & Montrose), • East HMA (Arbroath), • South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws), • West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens)

15. Base Assumptions • Size: Bedrooms 1 to 5 • Property Type • General Needs • Special Needs • Wheelchair • Accommodation without Stairs • Sheltered • Supported

16. Base Assumptions • Input by 7 components of need and split by area and size based on analysis of survey or council datasets • Homeless Households = 136 • Insecure Tenure = 39 • Concealed Households = 219 • Overcrowding = 779 • Special Housing: net of in-situ solutions = 2,514 • Poor Quality = 428 • Harassment = 127 • TOTAL = 4,242 • Facility in model to input projected increase/decreases on base assumptions • Affordability outcomes applied by HMA

17. Housing Affordability • Disaggregated Outcomes by HMA • Net Backlog of Current Need (Angus) = 2,121 • Net Backlog of Current Need (4 HMA) = 2,212 • New Formers Affordability (Angus) = 524 • New Formers Affordability (4 HMA) = 461

18. Newly Arising Need Assumptions • New Formation – split by area, size and type based on survey data = 771 • Assumption : All General Needs • Affordability Factor : applied by HMA • Facility to increase/decrease per annum • Homelessness input by area, size and type based on analysis of HL1 dataset = 724 • Assumption : All General Needs? • Increase p.a. according to 2012 target • 724 = 2008/09 (85% priority assessment) • Increased to 100% (2009/10 – 2012/13)

19. Supply Assumptions • Council & RSL stock calculation, split by HMA, size and type • Adjusted for long term voids and units taken out of management • Council & RSL relet rate established by area and type based on turnover analysis • Applied to stock to translate into annual supply of affordable dwellings by area, size and type • Facility to model increase/decrease in supply and turnover rate

20. Baseline Year Supply Assumptions • Total Affordable Stock = 10,866 • Angus Council = 7,817 • RSL’s = 3,049 units • Adjusted for RTB Projections • 31 units per annum (average 2009-19) • AC HRA Business Plan assumptions • Adjusted for demolitions = 0 • Turnover rate by HMA/type applied to stock to produce vacancies • Angus Council Ave for GN stock = 7% • RSL Ave for GN stock 6%

21. Baseline Year Supply Assumptions • New Affordable Housing Supply • Based on TAYplan assumptions • Based on AHIP budget and £74k cost per unit • Reduction in AHIP of 25% from 2009/10 level • Projected over 10 years • 49 units per annum • Split new housing by area, size and type as per the current stock profile • Relet rate based on 50% of the average RSL rate (3%)

22. Disaggregated Outcomes • Key Outcomes • Year 1: 2,439 households have unmet need • Year 5: 3,228 households have unmet need • Year 10: 4,399 households have unmet need • Headlines at Year 5 • Shortfall of affordable housing highest in South (-1,605) & West (-1,339) HMA’s • Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4 bedroom properties: (-1,188) (35%) • 85% of shortfall is in General Needs housing • 15% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing

23. Disaggregated Outcomes • Key Drivers in Increasing Shortfall • Baseline backlog current need = -2,277 • Average annual shortfall = -193 • Minimum shortfall = - 53 (baseline year) • Maximum shortfall = -238 (Year 10) • Annual shortfalls increase as a result of: • Increasing number of annual homeless households • Reducing stock numbers • Cumulative annual shortfall = -2,122 • Backlog + total annual shortfall = -4,399

24. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing

25. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area

26. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type

27. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size

28. HNADA Conclusions – Key Issues

29. Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues • There are significant differences in market housing demand between HMA’s • Demand concentrated in the South HMA • Since 2007 there has been a significant drop in the level of sales activity within the market (30%) • For modelling purposes, it is anticipated that the market will to its 2007 level by Year 10 • The evidence supports the view that by 2019 there will be a shortfall of over 6,000 market dwellings throughout Angus

30. Market Housing Requirement: Key Issues • Difficult to predict the likely pattern of market recovery the evidence suggests that high quality market housing for older households is likely to be a robust market sector • Given the assumptions used within the model the land requirement for market housing can be assessed by: • (Known current land bank) – (land requirement for assumed level of new build within model (290 units)) + (land requirement to meet unmet need of 6,000 households)

31. Recommendations • The number of households in need does NOT equal number of units to be delivered • Need could be met through range of interventions programmed though LHS: • developing partnerships with the private rented sector; • tackling private sector disrepair; • using assistive technology to promote independence in older people; • tackling and preventing homelessness; • making better use of the current affordable and private stock; • developing flexible tenure options;and • increasing housing supply.

32. Meeting Housing Need & Demand Tackling Homelessness Providing Housing Support Fuel Poverty Strategy Private Sector Housing Assessment Housing Supply Target Local Need 2012 Target Housing Market Area Evidence Local Need Local Housing Strategy Investment Direction Development Plan Link Local Delivery Role of PRS in Meeting Need Achieving Sustainable Communities Climate Change Challenge Local Actions Enforcement SHIP SOA Local Duty

33. Recommendations • AC should prepare an action plan • quantify potential impact of each intervention • set targets for projected impact on overall level of unmet need • Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting • This process should consider • land capacity • development industry capacity • availability of development funding • corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement