Corporate Foresight in Europe: Ready for the Next Step? Cornelia Daheim 2nd Int. Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Tec

1. Corporate Foresight in Europe: Ready for the Next Step? Cornelia Daheim 2nd Int. Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making, 28th- 29th September 2006

2. Issues • CF in Europe - results from a recent survey • Foresight Experience and Aims • Activities / Methods • Organizational Forms • Understanding and Relevance • Success Factors & Barriers • CF - The Next Phase • Conclusions

3. Defining Corporate Foresight Our understanding of CF: • Foresight for and in corporations is • a multi-layered communication process • asystematic, continuous approach • based on a tested range of methods • centres around medium to long-term oriented work on strategies, innovation and vision • a participatory process that makes businesses capable of making strategic decisions early

4. CF in Europe - The Survey • The study: „Strategic Foresight in Companies“, 2005 to 2006 • Adrian Müller, University of St. Gallen (strategicforesight.ch) in cooperation with Z_punkt • Results to be published this year • Key Questions: • How are Foresight processes designed and implemented? • What is the best approach to integrating them into corporate strategic decision-making processes? • What are the critical factors of success? • What is currently considered state of the art?

5. CF Survey - Background Data • 3 criteria for selecting respondents: • Large businesses with a turnover of at least 150 ml EUR annually • Headquarters in Europe • Have corporate strategic foresight process • Respondents: • 152 contacted, 40 countable replies • 9 countries (Germany, Sweden, Norway, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, UK, Switzerland, Liechtenstein) • 13 different industries (Automotive, Chemicals, Construction; Consumer goods; Electronics; Engineering; Financial Services; Appliances; Oil / gas; Pharma; Commerce; IT / Telecom.; Power Supply; Others = includes media, tourism, consulting, precision engineering, logistics)

6. CF Survey - Foresight Experience + Aims • CF is mostly continuous: • 8%: Foresight process running for more than 30 years • 50%: 10 years or more (median 10 years) • 25%: 3 or less years • Aims: Strategy, Innovation, Early Warning • 88%: Support for strategic decision-making in general • 77%: Improving long-term planning • 65%: Enabling early warning / issue management • 58%: Improvement of innovation process • Less important: “soft objectives” • 43%: Fostering future-oriented thinking and culture • 30%: Generation of visions and normative empowerment

7. CF – 4 Types of Organ. Forms • The Think Tank • many addressees + tasks • wide internal + external network • wider perspective separate units, full-time staff generating new own outputs • The Observatory • specialised task f.e. forecasting future traffic • single addressee • well networked internally • The Outsourcer • changing project team, but high continuity • Experts in drawing • info inside • Internal interpretation • High visibility Size • The Collecting Post • „on the side“ • individuals • collecting existing information • low visibility Survey: 52% work with foresight department / unit 10% individual person Level of Connectedness + Scope of Tasks Typology from Becker 2002, with additions by Z_punkt

8. CF Survey - Activities / Methods • Regular application of foresight methods (“sometimes” in brackets; n=40): • 26 (8): Trend analysis • 26 (9): Media / Publication analysis • 19 (16): Scenarios • 12 (17): Roadmapping • 11 (23): Participatory / Creative Methods • 5 (10): Simulations • 5 (5): Delphi • Trend analysis dominant, also in terms of activities • focus on gathering data and information! • Scenarios also rather popular • Less use of Delphi than in public sector

9. CF Survey - Success Factors & Barriers • Critical success factors: • High importance: • quality and strategic relevance of results (ease of understanding, practicability, measurability of successes, plurality and soundness of options), • participation and communication • Secondary importance: • Process input (data and information quality) and efficiency, methods, resources • Barriers: • Organizational / political • Insufficient legitimation • High costs

10. CF Survey - Understanding & Relevance • Understanding of CF changing, but still more on the instrumental side: • 50%: environmental information gathering process • 20%: reflection and knowledge generation process • 15%: normative vision-building process • Relevance growing in the last 5 years • 70%: in their own company • 60%: in business in general • but: lower increase in scope and appreciation • 55%: more appreciation in their company • 37,5%: more appreciated in general

11. CF - Challenges • Legitimation problems remain • Challenges: • Lack of organizational “roots” • Spokesperson / lobby dependence • Lack of evaluation / lack of clarity about use and impacts • Only a third control performance • Only a third regularly overhaul and improve CF process • Critical success factors - besides obvious (quality and strat. relevance of results) all “soft factors”: • Participation • Communication • Culture • Commitment • Reactive perspective: focus on trend analysis, scanning etc. • Lack of creative and “sense-making” approaches

12. Corporate Foresight Dominant Logics / Paradigms Assumption: The future can be calculated by appropriate computer models based on huge amounts of data and mathematical finesse. Assumption: Businesses can understand the future by anticipating the impact of trends on customers and markets. Assumption: Businesses can shape future contexts and markets by anticipating the dynamic interaction between social, techn. & economic forces. Assumption: The future can be foreseen by collecting and comparing the opinions of (numerous) experts. Expert-based Foresight Model-based Foresight Trend-based Foresight Context-based („Open“) Foresight 1960 2010

13. Characteristics Corporate Foresight Waves

14. CF in Europe Conclusions • CF in Europe by now rather widespread and established within large companies • Constant high internal “justification-pressure” • “Usual problems” remain unsolved • Conclusions on key factors for success - meant as making an impact: • Involvement of top management • Explicit aims and targets, performance control • Evaluation and regular overhaul of process = continuity • Participation • More stress on understanding change, deciding about action (= integration into decision-making, not merely its preparation!), less stress on data, content, projections etc. • Proactive instead of reactive perspective • Process competence: being able to deal with recurring “old logics” • Attention to importance of networking, community building, marketing CF, spokespersons • The Next Phase: Towards Open Foresight: • More permeability of content • Firmer integration into decision-making • Less trend hypes, more stress on process and “sense-making”, more evaluation and differentiation (methods, aims, outcomes)

15. Thanks for your attention! More information + newsletter: http://www.z-punkt.de

16. Corporate Foresight Think Tank • founded in 1997 • located in Berlin, Essen and Karlsruhe • staff of about 20 employees • Foresight-Services for Strategic Management and Innovation: From Trend Monitoring to Scenario Processes • Content Provider for Strategic Future Knowledge: Context, Consumers, Sectors, Technologies • External Think Tank for Challenging Creative Processes • Partner for Systematic Implementation of Corporate Foresight in Entrepreneurial Practices

17. Customers

18. International Foresight Group (IFG) Coordinator Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company IFG Founder and Coordinator http://www.z-punkt.de North America USA The Arlington Institute Non-profit research institute about global change John L. Petersen, President Europe Finland Finland Futures Academy Finland Futures Research Center, Dr. Juha Kaskinen, Director (University) Asia China Chinese Academy of Sciences Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Prof. Ph.D Rusong Wang Nucleo de Estudos de Futuro (NEF) The Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo (PUC SP)  University and NGO Prof. Arnoldo José de Hoyos Latin America Brazil Africa South Africa Center for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Think Tank, private sector (Global Research Alliance), PretoriaDr. Reinie Biesenbach, Centre Manager