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3-5 Simple Probability Day 1

3-5 Simple Probability Day 1. Video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqTioYM0L7I. Discussion. What does probability mean? Are the chances of the following events good or bad? 1. That you will dunk a basketball today. 2. That you will flip a coin and it will land on heads.

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3-5 Simple Probability Day 1

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  1. 3-5 Simple Probability Day 1

  2. Video • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WqTioYM0L7I

  3. Discussion What does probability mean? Are the chances of the following events good or bad? 1. That you will dunk a basketball today. 2. That you will flip a coin and it will land on heads. 3. That you will be out of school by 5:00 PM. 4. That you will order out food for dinner tonight. 5. That you will eat pizza for lunch today.

  4. Discussion What scale is used to determine your grades? 0-100% You understand this scale very well. You know that a 55% is bad and a 92% is good.

  5. Discussion Probability is based on a scale from 0-1. Zero represents that the event can’t happen and one represents that the event is certain to happen. 0 1/4 1/2 3/4 1 Impossible Unlikely Equal Likely Certain

  6. Discussion Make up an event that is certain. Make up an event that is impossible. Make up an event that is likely. Make up an event that is unlikely. Place a number (0-1) next to each event to represent its chance of happening. 0 1/4 1/2 3/4 1 Impossible Unlikely Equal Likely Certain

  7. Today’s Objective You will be able to estimate the probability of different events.

  8. Example 1 How would you rate the probability of each of the following events from 0 to 1?  a. That you will dunk a basketball today. b. That you will flip a coin and it will land on heads. c. That you will be out of school by 5:00 PM. d. That you will order out food for dinner tonight. e. That you will eat pizza for lunch today.

  9. What did we learn today? To estimate the probability of different events

  10. Review Question What is probability? Chance something will happen How is it measured? On a scale from 0-1.

  11. Discussion How would you rate the probability of you getting an ‘A’ on the next quiz from 0 to 1 where 0 represents impossible and 1 represents certainty?

  12. Discussion Notice that probability is given as a fraction. In order to calculate probability, we will need to figure out the top number and the bottom number of the fraction. Let’s try to figure out what each number means.

  13. Discussion Is the chance of you getting homework tonight good? Where would you place it from 0 to 1? Why did you say this? What does the 1st number represent? What does the 2nd number represent?

  14. Discussion This is exactly how you calculate probability. The top number represents how many times the event can happen. The bottom number represents how many total events there are.

  15. Today’s Objective You will be able to calculate simple probability.

  16. Definitions Probability – chance something will happen P(event) = how many times event can happen total events

  17. Example 1 One Six Sided Die: P(3) = P(not 5) = P(# < 4) = P(2 or 5) = Are the chances of each of these events happening good or bad? Why?

  18. Example 2 A bag of marbles contains 4 green, 5 yellow, and 3 blue marbles. Calculate the probability as a fraction, decimal, and percent. P(green) = P(blue) = P(purple) = P(green or blue) = Are the chances of each of these events happening good or bad? Why?

  19. You Try! 1. A spinner has the numbers 1 through 12 on it. Numbers 1 - 4 are red, numbers 5 - 12 are yellow. Find the probability of each event. a. P(8) = b. P(red) = c. P(even) = d. P(not 7) = e. P(less than 6) = f. P(8 or 9) =

  20. What did we learn today? To calculate simple probability

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