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presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr.

presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. The Great China Bubble. (2011). (1993). Chinese Urban Population vs. Birth Rate. Source: United Nations. China Real GDP Growth. Source: Bloomberg. China, Year over Year Inflation 2005- August 2011. Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China, 2011.

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presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr.

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  1. presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. The Great China Bubble (2011) (1993)

  2. Chinese Urban Population vs. Birth Rate Source: United Nations

  3. China Real GDP Growth Source: Bloomberg

  4. China, Year over Year Inflation2005- August 2011 Data Source: National Bureau of Statistics, China, 2011

  5. China PMI Data Source: Bloomberg, 2011

  6. Declining Personal Consumption in China 1952-2010 Source: The Economist “One-Track Bind.” 9/24/2011; World Bank, 2011

  7. Change in China Components of GDP 1995-2000 2005-2010 Source: Organization for Economic Co-operative Development, 2011

  8. Chinese Capital Spending Source: Pivot Capital Management

  9. Chinese Investment Bubble Source: Pivot Capital Management

  10. Chinese Capital Spending Source: Pivot Capital Management

  11. Chinese Credit Bubble Source: Pivot Capital Management

  12. Housing Units vs. Household Formation Source: Pivot Capital Management, 2010

  13. Home Price to Income Ratio in Emerging World Cities, 2011 Source: www.numbeo.com

  14. Steel Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management

  15. Cement Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management

  16. Aluminum Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management

  17. Economies Exposed by Exports to China Source: Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011

  18. Exports as a Percent of GDP in Select Countries Data Source: The World Bank, 2011

  19. Percent of GDP Exported to China in Select Countries Data Source: The World Bank, 2011, Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011

  20. China’s Global Share of Selected Commodities Percent Source: The Economist; “A Game of Catch-up,” 9/24/2011

  21. 29-30 Year Commodity Price CycleCRB Index (PPI before 1947) 1913-2040 2039-40 2009-10 1980 1949-1951 1920 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2011

  22. 34-36 Year Geopolitical CycleDow Industrials Data Source: HS Dent, Yahoo Finance, 2011

  23. 250-Year Revolutionary Cycle 2150 1900 1650 2nd American Revolution Emerging World Revolution Network Revolution American Revolution French Revolution Industrial Revolution Protestant Revolution Capitalist Revolution

  24. presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. Growth In Emerging Countries (2011) (1993)

  25. Europe, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  26. Latin America/Caribbean, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  27. East Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  28. Southeast Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  29. South Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  30. Middle East/North Africa, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  31. Sub-Saharan Africa, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations

  32. Global Innovation/Inflation Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations

  33. 29-30 Year Commodity Price CycleCRB Index (PPI before 1947) 1913-2040 2039-40 2009-10 1980 1949-1951 1920 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2011

  34. Social Unrest and Global Food Prices Source: Australia Financial Review, 2011

  35. Global Spending Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations

  36. Urbanization Rates in Select Developed Countries % Urbanization Source: Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Development Center Studies, OECD, 2001.

  37. The Wealth CurveThe S-Curve of Industrialization/Urbanization Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% .1% 10% 0 India China Korea Percent Adoption Japan U.S., Australia, New Zealand Western Europe Time Source: HS Dent

  38. Income by Age, 10-Year Cohorts Source: Euromonitor International, World Income Distribution, 2008/2009, 6th Edition.

  39. Distribution of Income in China, 2010 Source: China Daily

  40. Distribution of Income in India, 2010 Data Source: India Bureau of Statistics, 2011

  41. BrazilGPD per capita PPP in 1990 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $7,300 GDP Per Capita $6,429 in 1990 Int’l Dollars; $8,230 in 2009 Current USD % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  42. Brazil, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  43. ChinaGPD per capita PPP in 1990 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $12,000 GDP Per Capita $6,725 in 1990 Int’l Dollars; $3,744 in 2009 Current USD % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  44. China, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  45. IndiaGPD per capita PPP in 1990 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $9,900 $2,975 in 1990 Int’l Dollars; $1,192 in 2009 Current USD GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  46. India, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations

  47. IndonesiaGPD per capita PPP in 1990 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $7,000 GDP Per Capita $4,428 in 1990 Int’l Dollars; $2,349 in 2009 Current USD % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  48. MalaysiaGPD per capita PPP in 1990 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $12,000 $10,292 in 1990 Int’l Dollars; $7,030 in 2009 Current USD GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  49. IranGPD per capita PPP in 1990 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $6,944 in 1990 Int’l Dollars; $4,540 in 2009 Current USD $6,800 GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

  50. Philippines GPD per capita PPP in 1990 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $2,926 in 1990 Int’l Dollars; $1,752 in 2009 Current USD GDP Per Capita $2,900 % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank

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