Harry S. Dent, Jr. Dent Research

Dent Business Academy Business Strategies for the Winter Season Harry S. Dent, Jr. Dent Research

Session 4: S-Curve and Product Life Cycles for Business: Micro Seasons and Strategies Charts

Radial Tire S-Curve 90% Bias-ply Tires 50% Radial Tires 10% Chart 4-1 Source: Dent Research

The Automobile S-Curve Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% .1% 10% 0 Percent Adoption 14 years 14 years 1900 1907 1942 1914 1928 1921 1935 Installment Financing 90% Urban Adoption Cars only for the Rich Model T Design Assembly Line Chart 4-2

Cell Phone S-Curve Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% 10% 0 2011 Percent Adoption 2008 2005 2003 1999 1997 1996 1994 1991 1984 Chart 4-3

Consumer Adoption Curve Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% .1% 10% 0 Die-hards Results Laggards Late Majority Early Majority Opinion Leaders Influentials Young, Urban High income Group Characteristics Old, Rural Low income Chart 4-4

S-Curve and Four Stages Different Strategies for Each Stage 90% Maturity Boom Mainstream Growth Boom 50% Drives 0%-10% Shakeout Innovation 10% Chart 4-5

Bain Strategy Matrix Race for Leadership Dominate Industry Innovation Stage Purge Chart 4-6 Source: Dent Research

Summary Principles for Product Strategies Chart 4-7

Harry S. Dent, Jr. Dent Research