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presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. . The Great China Bubble, Global Demographic Trends and Growth in Emerging Countries. (2011). (1993). The Great China Bubble. Chinese Urban Population vs. Birth Rate. Source: United Nations. China GDP Growth 2000-2012. YoY Percent Change.
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presented by Harry S. Dent, Jr. The Great China Bubble, Global Demographic Trends and Growth in Emerging Countries (2011) (1993)
Chinese Urban Population vs. Birth Rate Source: United Nations
China GDP Growth2000-2012 YoY Percent Change Data Source: Bloomberg, 2012
China, PMI2007-2012 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2012
China, Trends Year over Year Change Source: “Understanding the China Slowdown,” Dexter Roberts, Bloomberg Business Week. 5/31/2012
Declining Personal Consumption in China 1952-2010 Source: The Economist “One-Track Bind.” 9/24/2011; World Bank, 2011
Change in China Components of GDP 1995-2000 2005-2010 Source: Organization for Economic Co-operative Development, 2011
Chinese Capital Spending Source: Pivot Capital Management
Chinese Investment Bubble Source: Pivot Capital Management
Chinese Capital Spending Source: Pivot Capital Management
Chinese Credit Bubble Source: Pivot Capital Management
Housing Units vs. Household Formation Source: Pivot Capital Management, 2010
Home Price to Income Ratio in Emerging and Developed World Cities, 2012 Source: www.numbeo.com
Steel Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management
Cement Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management
Aluminum Capacity Source: Pivot Capital Management
Economies Exposed by Exports to China Source: Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011
Exports as a Percent of GDP in Select Countries Data Source: The World Bank, 2011
Percent of GDP Exported to China in Select Countries Data Source: The World Bank, 2011, Bloomberg Business Week, “The Slowdown in China: Who’s Exposed,” 7/11/2011
China’s Global Share of Selected Commodities Percent Source: The Economist; “A Game of Catch-up,” 9/24/2011
29-30 Year Commodity Price CycleCRB Index (PPI before 1947) 1913-2040 2039-40 2009-10 1980 1949-1951 1920 Data Source: Bloomberg, 2012
34-36 Year Geopolitical CycleDow Industrials Data Source: HS Dent, Yahoo Finance, 2011
250-Year Revolutionary Cycle 2150 1900 1650 2nd American Revolution Emerging World Revolution Network Revolution American Revolution French Revolution Industrial Revolution Protestant Revolution Capitalist Revolution
Europe, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations
Latin America/Caribbean, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations
East Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations
Southeast Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations
South Asia, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations
Middle East/North Africa, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations
Sub-Saharan Africa, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2100 Source: United Nations
Global Innovation/Inflation Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations
Global Spending Wave India Pakistan N. Africa Mid East Saudi Arabia China 2 Russia 2 US 1 Europe Mexico SE Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Japan 2 S. Korea US 2 Indonesia Brazil China 1 Russia 1 Japan 1 Source: United Nations
Urbanization Rates in Select Developed Countries % Urbanization Source: Maddison, Angus. The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. 2001 Development Center Studies, OECD, 2012
The Wealth CurveThe S-Curve of Industrialization/Urbanization Innovation Growth Maturity 100 90% 99% 99.9% 90 80 70 60 50 50% 40 30 20 10 1% .1% 10% 0 India China Korea Percent Adoption Japan U.S., Australia, New Zealand Western Europe Time Source: HS Dent
Income by Age, 10-Year Cohorts Source: Euromonitor International, World Income Distribution, 2008/2009, 6th Edition.
Distribution of Income in China, 2011 Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, 2012
Distribution of Income in India, 2011 Source: India Bureau of Statistics, 2012
BrazilGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $10,100 $10,008 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
Brazil, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations
ChinaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $14,000 $9,498 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
China, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations
IndiaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $11,550 $3,870 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
India, Spending Wave vs. Workforce Growth, 1950-2095 Source: United Nations
IndonesiaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $7,250 $5,089 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
MalaysiaGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $14,689 in 2011 Int’l Dollars $15,900 GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
IranGPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $12,154 in 2011 Int’l Dollars $11,900 GDP Per Capita % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank
Philippines GPD per capita PPP in 2011 International Dollars vs. Urbanization Rate $3,847 in 2011 Int’l Dollars GDP Per Capita $3,850 % Urban Source: Angus Maddison and World Bank