Six Stops to Success: Getting Ready for the Ballot

1. Six Stops to Success:Getting Ready for the Ballot January 14, 2014 Washington, DC

2. Today’s Speakers • Jason Jordan, Director, Center for Transportation Excellence • Tim Heberlein, Political Director, Florida Consumer Action Network • Curt Below, Senior Vice President, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3)

3. Jason Jordan, CFTE Early Action Steps

4. 1. Basic Research • Who decides about going to the ballot? Who controls the process? • What funding tools are available? • What flexibility do you have on timing? • What is the process for ballot language? • Any restrictions? • Who’s involved?

5. 2. Evaluation of Timing + Environment • When to go to the ballot? • What else will be on the ballot? • What’s the likely political climate?

6. 3. Project Development • Identify specific projects • Identify and quantify specific benefits • Run the numbers • Think about the map

7. 4. Early Education + Outreach • Use agency public meeting and outreach processes • Set up the “problem” to be solved • Think about non-campaign advertising • Understand (and deal with) the agency’s image • Engage key advocacy groups • Cultivate champions

8. 5. Coalition Building • Be broad and creative • But, have a champion and a leader • Leverage existing networks • Plan for the transition from “inside” to “outside”

9. 6. Early Intel • Poll • Test everything • Know your voters … and, organize to reach them

10. 7. Make a Plan • And, write it down.

11. Tim Heberlein, Florida Consumer Action Network Organizing field operations

12. About Me • Worked in Grassroots organizing since 2006 • Electoral and Legislative Organizing • Transplant military brat • About FCAN • Founded 1984 • Progressive non-partisan non-profit c4 with a c3 foundation • Build power through grassroots lobbying, community organizing, and coalition building

13. Greenlight Pinellas • Elimination of PSTA’s nearly 3/4 mill property tax when the potential $.01 sales tax takes effect January 1, 2016 • A 65% increase in overall bus service throughout Pinellas County Bus Rapid Transit lines on most major Pinellas corridors. • Buses running to and from Tampa and the airport in the evenings and on weekends • A four-fold increase in bus service in northern Pinellas County • Longer service hours to accommodate second shift workers and evening travelers • Future passenger rail from St. Petersburg to Clearwater via the Gateway/Carillon area

14. Key Components • Field • Communications

15. Building out the Field • Recruiting • Spell out your needs (“Activist Menu”) • Coalitions: Political tables, labor, ridership, advocacy • At transit-related and transit-likely supportive events • From the field: An ask in every contact • Retaining • Parades for small victories • Use as Leadership Development opportunities

16. Field cont. • Voter Targeting • Know your win number • Know the landscape • Past transit referendums • Down ballot Vote Loss • Use Polling and be data driven • Creating a transit support model (there are some already out there!) • Measuring responses from the field

17. Changing the Message • Narrative is framing the conversation from your perspective • “Wall Street Fat Cats” vs “Job Creators” • What do you want that message to be • “_______ is better with transit.” • Who are the opinion makers (Grasstops leaders, Media, Electeds, donors, etc.) • Engaging the public • Public events / transit events • Outreach (businesses, electeds, Grasstops leaders) • Micro-polling to temperature check

18. Other Tips • Track success in the field through data as well as stories • Celebrate the campaign – retain your human resources • Continuous feedback from the field to donors, allies, media, etc.

19. Summary • Recruit and Retain • Be data driven • Frame the debate • Build the echo chamber • Repeat repeatrepeat • Test, Adjust, repeat Your organizations should be stronger after each campaign.

20. My contact Info • tim@fcan.org • (813)532-9846 • @timintampa Questions?

21. Curt Below, FM3 Polling + Early campaign intelligence

22. Using Opinion Research to Shape Transportation Ballot Measure Campaigns January 14, 2014 – Curtis Below

23. The Goals of Campaign Polling • For campaigns, polling is not a crystal ball; instead it is a strategic tool, used for shaping and targeting messages. It tells a campaign: • Where you start • Who you need to talk to • What you need to tell them • What kind of impact you can have It is the key to allocating scarce resources effectively to have the maximum impact and increase the chances of winning.

24. Research can provide perspective and dispel the “squeaky wheel” phenomenon. On most community and public policy issues, elected officials and institutions hear from a tiny – but vocal – fraction of the population: “the squeaky wheels.” Typically, there is a silent majority which can feel strikingly different than the vocal minority. Research provides perspective on what the broader whole thinks and says.

25. Research can also highlight how important specific language can be. “In your own words, what does the term ‘watershed’ mean to you?” 47% Don’t know 27% A geographic area through which water flows to a common destination 26% A building or shed used to store water 1999 survey of 850 Santa Clara County, CA residents

26. Where Policy Meets Politics:The Brownie Box

27. And opinion research makes you… MORE EFFICIENT With limited time and/or limited dollars, a campaign needs to hit the mark on the first try.

28. The Two Major Types of Research Quantitative Qualitative • Open-end discussion; • Small groups of people; • In-depth probing; • Understanding perceptions, opinions, beliefs, and attitudes; • Answers “why?” and “how? • Closed-end questions; • Large number of people; • Limited number of questions; • Broad data, generalized results; • Answers “what?” and “how many?”

29. Polling in a Campaign Context • Feasibility Poll Brief early poll to determine what type of ballot measure and/or funding source is most viable. • Baseline/Benchmark Poll Most comprehensive poll; conducted shortly after structure and language of measure are set. Determines targeting, messages, and strategy. • Tracking Poll If necessary and within budget, conducted in final weeks before Election Day, to measure progress and adjust strategy accordingly.

30. Sample Size: How Many People Should We Interview? • The number of people that are interviewed is largely dependent on resources/declining value for margin of error. • The more people you interview the more accurate your results will be. • Think of the population as an entire pot of soup. • Just a few spoonfuls will give you a taste; • But a lot of spoonfuls will give you a much better sense of the full flavor.

31. Sample Size Determines Margin of Error Sample Size Margin of Error N=300 ± 5.66% N=350 ± 5.24% N=400 ± 4.9% N=600 ± 4.00% N=800 ± 3.46%

32. Types of Survey Questions • There are several types of questions, some standard that you will likely see across surveys and questions that are campaign specific. • In a survey, there are generally two types of questions -- the closed-ended and open-ended questions. • The closed-ended question offers only a set number of responses for survey participants to select from. Virtually ALL the questions you ask on a survey are closed-ended. • The open-ended question gives the participant the freedom to respond at-length and in their own words. Responses are recorded verbatim by the interviewer and later transcribed. Only one or two open-ended questions should be asked on a survey.

33. A Typical Transportation Campaign Questionnaire Structure Screening questions to ID likely voters Background/contextual questions: right direction/ wrong track, favorability ratings, etc. Draft 75-word ballot question Open-ended question on reasons for vote Evaluating relative concern about transportation issues Testing aspects of ballot measure structure (mechanisms, rates, durations, etc.) Ranking importance of specific transportation projects Testing the impact of accountability mechanisms Pro arguments, followed by a re-vote Con arguments, followed by a revote Demographics (age, gender, race, income, party, etc.)

34. Analysis of the Results We focus on the following: • Who are the campaign’s base supporters, and who are potential swing voters? • How large and well-defined a group are the swing voters? How much do they move? • Which messages and messengers have the greatest impact with them? • Is there a focused message you can deliver to a specific target to make an impact?

35. Examples from Napa County, CA (Measure T) Survey Research

36. Napa County, CA Measure T • In November 2012, Napa County voters approved (75% YES to 25% NO) Measure T, a one-half cent sales tax to fund transportation projects. • Building on prior research conducted in 2007 and 2008, in May 2010 FM3 conducted a feasibility survey which helped lead to Measure T and shape it’s structure and framing.

37. Voters see a great need for additional road repair funding; congestion relief is a lower priority. Do you believe there is a great need, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding for in Napa County? Congestion Relief and Transportation Improvements Road Repairs Total Yes93% Total Yes72% Total No5% Total No23% Q5/6 Split Sample

38. The proportion of voters who assign a high priority to road repairs has grown. (Ranked by 2010 % High) Ensuring that sidewalks and other pedestrian pathways are accessible to disabled persons 11. I am going to read you a list of potential ways that money from this ballot measure might be spent. Please tell me whether you would give a high, medium or low priority to __________? Split Sample

39. The priority assigned to every other area dropped. Improving traffic light synchronization so that traffic moves faster along Highway 29 11. I am going to read you a list of potential ways that money from this ballot measure might be spent. Please tell me whether you would give a high, medium or low priority to __________? Split Sample

40. Vehicle Registration FeeLanguage Tested NAPA COUNTY TRAFFIC CONGESTION RELIEF AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT MEASURE 200 Interviews 400 Interviews • Relieve traffic congestion; • Improve traffic flow on local highways, roads and intersections countywide; • Improve pedestrian walkways and bike paths; and • Reduce pollution that causes global warming; • Fix potholes and repair local streets and roads; • Improve safety and traffic flow on local highways, roads and intersections countywide; • Synchronize traffic signals; • Improve pedestrian walkways and bike paths; and • Reduce pollution that causes global warming; Shall the Napa County Transportation Planning Agency levy a $10 vehicle registration fee for each vehicle registered in Napa County, subject to citizen oversight and annual independent audits?

41. A VRF measure that would include funding for road repair garners majority support. First 200:Without Road Repair Final 400:With Road Repair +/-% of Change Total Yes57% Total Yes44% +13% Total No51% Total No40% -11% -2% 8 (Total) First 200/Final 400. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?

42. The most compelling message in favor of the measure highlightsthe need to take an initial step toward repairing roads. (Ranked by % Very Convincing) 74% 75% 73% 12. First, here are some statements from supporters. Pease tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote yes on the measure. ^Not Part of Split Sample

43. Anti-tax sentiments connected to the economy are the most persuasive arguments in opposition to the measure. (Ranked by % Very Convincing) 67% 62% 61% 14. Next, here are some statements from people who oppose the measure. After hearing each statement, please tell me whether you find it very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not convincing as a reason to vote no on the measure. ^Not part of Split Sample.

44. Voters express strong support for a half cent sales tax measure that would not increasethe existing tax rate. Total Yes72% Total No27% 7. I know five to six years from now is a long way off, but if the election were held today and the half cent sales tax measure to repair and improve local streets and roads and reduce traffic congestion were on the ballot, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?

45. Democrats and independent voters offer higher levels of support. Party (% of Sample) (49%) (32%) (19%) 7. I know five to six years from now is a long way off, but if the election were held today and the half cent sales tax measure to repair and improve local streets and roads and reduce traffic congestion were on the ballot, would you vote yes in favor of this measure or no to oppose it?

46. Strategies for Local Revenue Success • Stress the economic benefits of the measure in terms of job creation – both direct and indirect. • Make low per-household costs clear. • Highlight specific, flagship projects that are locally important. • Emphasize that funds will be spent locally – not at the state level. • Highlight fiscal accountability provisions – audits, oversight, public disclosure, sunset provisions, etc.

47. Curtis Below 1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA 94612Phone (510) 451-9521 Fax (510) 451-0384 Curt@FM3research.com

48. Upcoming Webinars February 18, 2014 Funding Your Campaign March 25, 2014 Making Friends for Transit Investment April 15, 2014 Going Multimodal at the Ballot Box Register at www.cfte.org/six-stops

49. Questions? Jason Jordan Director, CFTE jjordan@cfte.org @jasonljordan www.cfte.org Thanks to our cosponsor