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National Centers for Environmental Prediction

National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Overview. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. September 25, 2012. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products.

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National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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  1. National Centers forEnvironmental Prediction Overview Dr. Louis W. Uccellini NCEP Director “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” September 25, 2012

  2. NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Aviation Weather Center Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

  3. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Seasonal Predictions Months Week 2 Hazards Assessment CPC 2 Week Climate/Weather Linkage 6-10 Day Forecast 1 Week NDFD, Days 4 -7 HPC OPC TPC Days Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : SPC AWC SWPC Hours Minutes Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  4. Three Major Components of Today’s Operational Numerical Prediction Enterprise • Observations • ~2 billion/day • 99.9% remotely sensed, mostly from satellites • Model • Earth System model; coupled • Global resolution (27km) • North American resolution (4km) • Computer • 2012 • Primary/backup15 minute switchover • 73 trillion calc/sec – IBM Power 6 • 2013 • 146 trillion calc/sec – IBM iDataPlex Intel/Linux

  5. NOAA’s Model Production Suite Oceans HYCOM Wave Watch III Forecast • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Northern Gulf of Mexico • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast System Eco Forecasting Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled GFSMOM4 NOAH Sea Ice ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Refresh for Aviation 6 6 NOAH Land Surface Model

  6. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Ocean Model HYCOM Wave Watch III Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days North American Forecast GLOFS Bays Chesapeake, N. GoM Tampa, Columbia R, Delaware Enlil – Space Wx Model Hours Hurricane – GFDL, WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes Dispersion Models for DHS Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

  7. NCEP Model Suite Supports NOAA Ocean and Coastal Missions • Ensure maritime weather, ocean and sea ice safety • E.g., hazards from winds, waves, currents and their interactions • Enhance economic benefit for marine transportation • E.g., weather and ocean forecasts based ship routing • Support response to marine environmental emergencies • E.g., oil spills, Fukushima • Support Search and Rescue Operations (USCG) • Support stewardship of ocean, coastal and marine ecosystem resources • E.g., Predict physical boundary conditions, circulations and transports for Port management, ecological forecasting • Provide sea ice forecasting for Arctic Ocean • Support Wx/ice safety and SAROPS services • Improve hurricane forecasting • Improve extratropicalcyclogenesis forecasting – especially oceanic influenced rapid cyclogenesis

  8. Past and Current NCEP-NAVY collaborations • The HYCOM consortium • NAVO 1/12 deg. Global HYCOM at NCEP • North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS – including Canadian, NCEP and FNMOC) • WAVEWATCH III at FNMOC, NAVO, and NRL • Hurricane forecast modeling: Collaborations in HFIP • JCSDA: NCEP-NRL MRY • Co-chairs the ocean working group • Community fast forward Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) • Altimetry (JASON-1, JASON-2) • Fukushima response (NCEP-NAVO) • radioactive hazmat tracking • Navy Global and regional NCOM data services (NCEP-NAVO) • USCG (SAROPS), NGA (Fukushima), ORR (NOAA hazmat), domestic users • NUOPC-ESPC (HYCOM, WAVEWATCH III, ADCIRC) • GFS physics in (NOGAPS)

  9. Future NCEP-NAVY collaborations • NCODA for Global HYCOM at NCEP • WAVEWATCH III as a community model • Hurricane forecast modeling: continue collaborations in HFIP • JCSDA: NCEP-NRL MRY • co-chairs the ocean working group • Navy Global HYCOM and regional NCOM data services (NCEP-NAVO) • USCG (SAROPS), ORR (NOAA hazmat), domestic users • NUOPC-ESPC (HYCOM, WAVEWATCH III, ADCIRC) • Ensembles (NAEFS)

  10. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists • Includes 464 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

  11. History of Construction • Groundbreaking March 2006 • Construction start May 2007 • Construction halted December 2008 - NCWCP construction 80% complete • In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government • In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court • The Federal Court dismissed all remaining claims filed by the developer on February 9, 2011 • These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project • Work restarted April 6, 2011

  12. Move Schedule • February 2, 2012 – data center setup began • April 7, 2012 – Building operations transferred to new owner • Shadow forecasts commenced June 6 • July 30, 2012 – began phased move-in • Front offices • Non-operational groups • August 2012 – dual operations • August 24, 2012 – move completed • October 15, 2012 – ribbon-cutting

  13. Appendix

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